If we vote for Brexit what happens

mwpt

LHW99 wrote: »

I would like to see this too. Unfortunately recent experience for Greece, particularly but others also hasn't convinced me its happening.

I'm sure you can work out or read the threads on why Greece is in such a mess. Us staying in the EU or out the EU won't change that.

I'm waiting for GDP figures showing how the EU has been harmful to newly joined members as you guys have stated. Should be easy to produce and I'll willingly admit I'm wrong if they show a strong correlation with EU membership and worse GDP / living standards.

Mee

I think it would be helpful if those who scapegoat the EU re: immigration would familiarise themselves with the facts and 'our' own government's role in post-2004 immigration. Worth reading reading the introduction of Polish Emigration to the UK after 2004 why Did So Many Come?

Filo25

Conrad, there's been plenty of fear mongering nonsense from both sides in this particular "debate", I've seen precious little said by either side which has influenced my decision so far.

How would we cut a deal with the Commonwealth anyway?

Over time we could possibly negotiate deals with individual members, but the Commonwealth doesn't exist as consolidated economic entity, so I would imagine we wouldn't need separate terms for a trade deal with each nation, the same as we would with any non-Commonwealth agreement.

I also freely admit that in the long run the economic case for Brexit is uncertain, it could be positive or negative, none of us really know that outcome with any certainty, its the short-medium term where the balance of probabilities points to the negative side of the argument.

Unlike some one here I may be voting for one "side" but I'm not making out that its a perfect risk-free outcome either, there are many aspects of the EU which I am uncomfortable with as well.

Generali

tommysaver wrote: »

So.. it's lunch time and I have time for a 2 minute fag packet calculation.

Looking at the UK results last election...




Let's say we take half and half, straight 50/50 for IN and OUT votes. (For Conservative, Labour & Liberal)

That leaves 11,548,871 votes each way.

Now to add on UKIP's votes, lets say 100% of UKIP voters vote again for OUT.

That;s 15,429,970 votes OUT, vs 11,548,871 votes IN. Clearly I am just thinking out loud here, don't insult my scientific approach.


So... What would happen if the entire lot bar UKIP voted 55% IN, 45% OUT.

We are left with 12,703,758 votes to be IN, 10,393,983 votes to be OUT.... but then you add UKIP into the equation and you have an extra 3,881,099 votes to play with.

Totalling OUT votes to 14,275,082... a victory of over a million still.

I just found this an interesting way to spend 5 minutes, obviously you can engineer the outcome how you like, but I think it's going to be an extremely close call with real potential OUT will bag it.

If we look at the Times/You Gov poll tabs:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5410is51bi/TimesResults_160531_EURef&HousePrices_W.pdf

which was evenly split on the subject, it's really women that are the big don't know group.

Positively for the Brexitiers they have a lead in older age groups that are more likely to vote. Less positively, the Brexitier vote is concentrated in the lower social classes that are much less likely to vote (they lead 48:30 in C2s, Ds and Es and IIRC only 8% of Es voted in the General Election).

Most positively of all for Brexitiers, YouGov seem to be making one of the errors that the polls for the General Election made. By having their oldest age group set at 65+ the pollsters ended up with too many younger old people and not enough 75+ people and the older you are the more likely you are to be a Brexitier.

The most positive thing of all for the Remainiacs must be the breakdown of how people think a Brexit will play out economically (traditionally people are thought to vote with their wallets):

- Economy will be worse (yes 34%:no 22%)
- Bad for jobs (yes 33%:no 22%)
- Bad for your economic situation (yes 23%:no 10%)

The immigration thing is clearly chiming with voters:

- Less immigration on Brexit? (yes 58%:no 4%)
- Brexit good for NHS? (yes 36%:no 17%) (I think this is a quasi-immigration question)

Amusingly 14% of people seem to think that the UK will have more influence over the EU if the UK leaves. Bless 'em.

Filo25

The polling on this is interesting Generali, I get the feeling that, in spite of the price shortening in recent days, the bookies are still underestimating the chance of Brexit.

I really would not be surprised to see this vote go either way.

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

I'm sure you can work out or read the threads on why Greece is in such a mess. Us staying in the EU or out the EU won't change that.

I'm waiting for GDP figures showing how the EU has been harmful to newly joined members as you guys have stated. Should be easy to produce and I'll willingly admit I'm wrong if they show a strong correlation with EU membership and worse GDP / living standards.

This is quite helpful;


Single Market performance – established in 1992 – what happened

• After 1992 British export growth slowed, 22% lower over 20 years than would have been had they continued at the rate of growth in the 20 years prior to 1992 (The Michael Burridge report), and this same slowing of growth was seen in the other founder nations of the single market.

• 14.6% reduction in rate of growth in the EU compared with the rate of growth of the nations that established the single market in the 20 years prior

• 27 non EU countries goods exports into the EU grew faster than the UK’s in the 20 years following single market, and 21 did better in export services growth to the other 11 single market founders
• Rate of growth of OECD countries has outstripped the EU
• Scandalously high unemployment
• Rest of EU contains none of worlds top 20 Universities

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

- Economy will be worse (yes 34%:no 22%)
- Bad for jobs (yes 33%:no 22%)

Leave's biggest failing has been in not hammering home the positive economic case for leave, whereas Cameron last night for example hammered a few simple economic fear messages home over and over again.


I've sent Gove an email about the critical importance of him hammering home the economic case tonight on SKY, and he personally thanked me for it - not sure if that was just a polite 'f off I'm busy' though

• Regain control over our fishing grounds for a £5bn pa boost and over 100,000 new jobs (not just fisherman)

• Have the heft of a Commonwealth trading alliance behind us - think of the leverage

• We 100% will get a decent EU trade deal as it's not in their interest to increase their unemployment and make them and us perform worse (this is critically more important than the potential future risk of other nations wanting to leave - it's here n now

• Our deep global links, safe haven status, soft power status, Anglo-sphere status, deeply engaged military (for years) and more besides will ensure nations will be queuing up to get into alliances with us

C'mon people, we can do it, lets regain our trading vocation, lets regain our autonomy and confidence

Filo25

You could argue that it says a lot about the Brexit case on the economy, that the group that is most strongly Brexit (pensioners) is largely insulated from the worst impact of any economic uncertainty (or at least they believe they are).

If you believe the polling, those of working age would be leaning Remain.

Generali

Filo25 wrote: »

The polling on this is interesting Generali, I get the feeling that, in spite of the price shortening in recent days, the bookies are still underestimating the chance of Brexit.

I really would not be surprised to see this vote go either way.

My feeling is that the polling is rubbish. They don't have any good way of sampling for a Brexit so are relying on political party support as a proxy for having a good sample. At the same time it seems that the de facto leaders of the Brexit and Remainiacs are all Tories!

With a lack of any real driver to Leave between now and the vote I suspect that Remain will triumph as people vote for the status quo. Realistically why wouldn't you? British people are housed, fed, watered, have healthcare for their parents and education for their kids and jobs for themselves. It's hard to see how much better things could be but it's easy to see how much worse they could be.

It's why the Remainiacs use Project Fear: it's powerful as it directly feeds the fear of change. My feeling is that Leave has missed a trick by going down the same road as they are the ones peddling change. Leave should be emphasising the sunlit uplands that will result from leaving the EU IMHO. Dark threats resulting from staying in the EU just don't chime with people's day-to-day experiences.

CLAPTON

looks like job creation in the USA is well below expectation
this clearly has an inverse relationsip with the rise in brexit expectation