If we vote for Brexit what happens

michaels

Moby wrote: »

Usual nonsensical piffle from you. I'm not responsible for what's happening in Venezuela. Not even my influence extends that far;)

Seriously though it is abundantly clear that Brexit is a leap in the dark without a parachute. Germany, France etc will make it their business to ensure the UK does not get a favourable trade deal. They will have no choice.....they will have to make an example of us! This will result in years of economic uncertainty make no mistake! Cameron's dubious exaggeration's accepted.

Could it not suggest that there is a problem with the EU if member countries need to punish leavers in order to demonstrate to their own population that they are better off in? I thought the benefits of membership would continue to be self evident without the need to punish leavers?

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

Could it not suggest that there is a problem with the EU if member countries need to punish leavers in order to demonstrate to their own population that they are better off in? I thought the benefits of membership would continue to be self evident without the need to punish leavers?

It does, mind you a lot of people were saying we should do much the same thing to Scotland if they voted to leave

There are a number of issues though, they also don't want to set a benchmark for the EEA members to get a better deal either.

Ultimately all countries need to approve any deal so its possible for a few to put a spanner in the works, the whole thing is just uncertain and that is possibly more damaging than the makeup of a final deal.

Interesting to see that some of the press now seems to be floating the idea of EEA membership supposedly as a transitional measure, I'm wondering if that is being pushed by some within the Brexit campaign. I still think that would be difficult to sell to a lot of Brexit voters though, who would probably feel betrayed given immigration is the number 1 concern regarding the EU for many.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

He's been wrong on a hell of a lot as well.

He would be the best of a bad bunch then since he was correct on initially joining the single market in 81, correct on the ERM pull out and correct on not joining the Eurozone. Yet the institutions being held up as having definitively solved the argument and that we should Remain have consistently been wrong on those issues.

Should I trust institutions like the IMF over Patrick given their track record and vested interests?

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

It does, mind you a lot of people were saying we should do much the same thing to Scotland if they voted to leave

.

was there a single government minister or even shadow cabinet minister that suggested such a thing?

Rinoa

We simply don't need a trade deal with the EU.

The EU want political integration. If we do a deal it will almost certainly involve some powers being retained by the EU.

Average WTO tariffs are around 4%. If you wanted a new washing machine and went to Currys, you'd have a choice of maybe a Beko at £199 through to a Miele at almost £2000 with dozens of choices in between offering various features, reputation, guarantees etc. A 4% difference in price isn't likely to sway you either way.

TrickyTree83

Rinoa wrote: »

We simply don't need a trade deal with the EU.

The EU want political integration. If we do a deal it will almost certainly involve some powers being retained by the EU.

Average WTO tariffs are around 4%. If you wanted a new washing machine and went to Currys, you'd have a choice of maybe a Beko at £199 through to a Miele at almost £2000 with dozens of choices in between offering various features, reputation, guarantees etc. A 4% difference in price isn't likely to sway you either way.

Especially as inside the EU you pay inflated prices (as it's a protectionist customs union) and importers into the EU face the Common External Tariff. With that barrier removed we could import rest-of-the-world washing machines (other appliances are available) at a 0% import tariff if we wished to do so. VAT would be under our control too.

So rather than an increase in price most goods will experience a reduction in price. As deregulation kicks in, those who supply the domestic market will be able to cut costs and some will choose to pass that on to the consumer.

LillianJacks

I guess they will remain or their status could change and they'll be awarded something like a 3 year work permit, or study visa etc.. or some other new permit dreamt up for those already in country from the EU. Switzerland for example after voting out EU migration measures, now buys places at EU universities on eurasmus exchanges etc.. everything is fixable.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

It's quite clear that life will continue very much as now : trade will continue almost the same except that democracy in the UK will be strengthen.
And you do accept the only way the EU27 can inflict harm on the UK is to also inflict harm on their own people of the EU27.
They have every choice : they can stamp on their own people or trade and make them richer.

and you still want to be a member of a group that deliberately inflicts harm on their own working people to make a political point.

You are so wrong mate.....Harm or not there will be an inevitable tit for tat response. You as always ignore evidence that disagrees with your pre-existing position.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/02/brexit-vote-could-affect-brits-right-live-in-spain-spanish-pm-mariano-rajoy

It's also a big group.....I agree with some and strongly disagree with others in that group. Its not alkl good and its not all bad and yes I would still want to be a member of the club and work for change from within! Its inevitable and its the way the world is moving.......nations are coalescing into blocs.

TrickyTree83

Tit for tat is definitely not inevitable. Article 50 (according to a foreign affairs committee meeting I watched) has in it provisions for amicable divorce, almost implicitly stating that deals with the member leaving would essentially remain similar to what is currently in place.

Not only that but a tit-for-tat situation would hurt the fragile Eurozone just as much as the UK, the economics ministers in those countries would go crazy if there were political points scoring at the expense of the wider Eurozone economy with it in the situation it is currently in.

Nations are coalescing into blocs, this is very true. Not political unions there is an important difference. The last time we saw a political union rather than a bloc of collaborative nation states (i.e. UN) was the USSR.

Filo25

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

He would be the best of a bad bunch then since he was correct on initially joining the single market in 81, correct on the ERM pull out and correct on not joining the Eurozone. Yet the institutions being held up as having definitively solved the argument and that we should Remain have consistently been wrong on those issues.

Should I trust institutions like the IMF over Patrick given their track record and vested interests?

Minford believes in efficient markets, so that markets incorporate all relevant information and price assets correctly.

I wonder how he marries his view that leaving the EU will be fantastic for the UK, with the fact that whenever a UK exit from the EU looks more likely, Sterling shows significant falls.

It certainly suggests that the markets don't share his optimism about the positive economic impact of Brexit.