If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

Generali wrote: »

My feeling is that the polling is rubbish. They don't have any good way of sampling for a Brexit so are relying on political party support as a proxy for having a good sample. At the same time it seems that the de facto leaders of the Brexit and Remainiacs are all Tories!

With a lack of any real driver to Leave between now and the vote I suspect that Remain will triumph as people vote for the status quo. Realistically why wouldn't you? British people are housed, fed, watered, have healthcare for their parents and education for their kids and jobs for themselves. It's hard to see how much better things could be but it's easy to see how much worse they could be.

It's why the Remainiacs use Project Fear: it's powerful as it directly feeds the fear of change. My feeling is that Leave has missed a trick by going down the same road as they are the ones peddling change. Leave should be emphasising the sunlit uplands that will result from leaving the EU IMHO. Dark threats resulting from staying in the EU just don't chime with people's day-to-day experiences.

My concern for the Remain campaign, would be that public trust in Cameron appears to be shot, I think he's gone pretty quickly even if Remain manages a narrow victory.

His "Allies" in other parties are proving to be as much of a liability as a help, Labour and at times the SNP appear to be as interested in taking pot shots at Cameron and Osborne as they are in supporting the Remain case., plus nobody really cares what the LibDems think.

Normally I would think the unfavourable turnout gap for Remain in the young v old demographic, would be offset by a favourable socioeconomic one for ABC1s v C2DEs, but this might be an election where socioeconomic groups do turnout in decent numbers, I think UKIP and the Brexit group have found a good narrative there that these groups are losing out due to immigration, it may be simplistic but its working.

You have a point though that people often go into the polling booth and vote with their backpockets, when it comes down to it.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

My concern for the Remain campaign, would be that public trust in Cameron appears to be shot, I think he's gone pretty quickly even if Remain manages a narrow victory.

His "Allies" in other parties are proving to be as much of a liability as a help, Labour and at times the SNP appear to be as interested in taking pot shots at Cameron and Osborne as they are in supporting the Remain case., plus nobody really cares what the LibDems think.

Normally I would think the unfavourable turnout gap for Remain in the young v old demographic, would be offset by a favourable socioeconomic one for ABC1s v C2DEs, but this might be an election where socioeconomic groups do turnout in decent numbers, I think UKIP and the Brexit group have found a good narrative there that these groups are losing out due to immigration, it may be simplistic but its working.

You have a point though that people often go into the polling booth and vote with their backpockets, when it comes down to it.

Can I ask you or other Remains something>


Imagine it's the 24th and Leave has won.
What would you expect Cameron's speech to mention (aside from resignation lol)?


Honestly - what would he be saying - doom n gloom or something else?

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Can I ask you or other Remains something>


Imagine it's the 24th and Leave has won.
What would you expect Cameron's speech to mention (aside from resignation lol)?


Honestly - what would he be saying - doom n gloom or something else?

Disappointment, respect the will of the people, work hard to get the best deal in trade negotiations.

The usual.

He would probably resign later

Generali

Filo25 wrote: »

My concern for the Remain campaign, would be that public trust in Cameron appears to be shot, I think he's gone pretty quickly even if Remain manages a narrow victory.

Mr Cameron is in a pretty good position: he has already stated very clearly that he won't contest another election as party leader.

Has public trust in him gone or are Brexitiers annoyed with him? I've yet to see any concrete sign of support for Mr C disappearing such as a complete collapse in Tory support in the polls. Maybe that's the gift to the Tories that is Mr Corbyn, he really does just keep on giving. Don't go changing now!

Filo25 wrote: »

His "Allies" in other parties are proving to be as much of a liability as a help, Labour and at times the SNP appear to be as interested in taking pot shots at Cameron and Osborne as they are in supporting the Remain case., plus nobody really cares what the LibDems think.

As an aside to the contest it really is interesting how utterly irrelevant the Labour Party has become. It hasn't really entered into the debate and nobody really cares.

Filo25 wrote: »

Normally I would think the unfavourable turnout gap for Remain in the young v old demographic, would be offset by a favourable socioeconomic one for ABC1s v C2DEs, but this might be an election where socioeconomic groups do turnout in decent numbers, I think UKIP and the Brexit group have found a good narrative there that these groups are losing out due to immigration, it may be simplistic but its working.

There are causes for concern and hope on both sides with the breakouts in that poll (which I chose for its closeness and ease of access). I would be quite concerned if the immigration argument won the day. I completely accept that not all people that are anti-immigration is racist but there is far too much crossover for my liking.

Filo25 wrote: »

You have a point though that people often go into the polling booth and vote with their backpockets, when it comes down to it.

I remember poll after poll in the 1980s showing that people would be quite happy to pay more tax to get a better NHS or education for the kids or welfare state (will nobody think of the indolent) but ultimately they voted for Lady Thatcher.

Filo25

It's shocking that the Tories are currently at each others throats and trashing their own government's record very vocally and are still ahead in GE voting intention polls.

Its the ultimate comment on just how unelectable and irrelevant Corbyn is, in the long run that isn't a healthy place for any democracy to be in, where the main opposition isn't remotely effective, the ruling party has carte blanche to do whatever they want with no prospect of being held to account.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

I remember poll after poll in the 1980s showing that people would be quite happy to pay more tax to get a better NHS or education for the kids or welfare state (will nobody think of the indolent) but ultimately they voted for Lady Thatcher.

When low cost airlines got going, survey after survey perplexed the marketing men at the traditional airlines as those surveyed said they were happy to pay more for a better service, inflight meals, leg room, and yet people did the opposite and chose the no frills cheap carriers.


This was felt to be a case of virtue signalling - the same dynamic associated with the shy Tory or the over eager 'I would love to pay higher taxes' spouter, or those that applaud the 'I believe in decent wages for all' only for them to go bargain hunting next day (not a thought in their heads as to whether this is supportive or otherwise of wage levels - they choose UBER despite UBER drivers earning less than Black cabbies and 25% of the taxi fare ending up in California which of course means less money for Brits despite people claiming they care about British incomes)

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

Please read: VAT, Amazon sell everything to the UK from Luxembourg because it has a lower VAT rate (15%). With Brexit obviously that would not happen any more - Amazon would charge 5% more and thus compete on a level playing field with uk sellers and UK would pocket the 20% VAT.

Immediately conflating a different issue when confronted by an uncomfortable fact - do you work for the stay campaign?

Vat in Luxembourg is 17%. 0% on Printed Books
I mistook the point as I thought they were accused of AVOIDING VAT.
Paying extra VAT to the UK Government is unlikely to help UK online sellers who may be struggling.
As an aside. Can you or anyone tell me if their Amazon invoices show VAT at 15% or 17% when the UK rate is 20%, as consulting an acquaintance about this he was convinced that Amazon has for some time had to charge the correct VAT rates when selling to the UK and other Country's.
They have also been accused along with many other Company's of avoiding Corporation Tax.
So I thought the point being made was that these wrongs would immediately be corrected by the UK leaving the EU.
When it comes to Corporation Tax these International Company's will not just roll over and pay up. There are plenty of other Country's around the world that they can move their International Headquarters to.

I have just had to add.
No I don't work for the stay campaign but have already voted (by post) to stay.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

As an aside to the contest it really is interesting how utterly irrelevant the Labour Party has become. It hasn't really entered into the debate and nobody really cares.

This could be important though - if the less publicised ukip out campaign can reach the labour c2des who started to go that way in the ge (and remember by voting in the ge they demonstrated that they do vote) whilst the totally half-hearted official labour campaign fails to motivate the more affluent labour middle class stay supporters. The only bit of the labour party really vocal on stay is the blairite bit of the plp who seem to have little credibility with te rank and file.

I wonder if Corbyn being seen as a man going against his principals to support remain is actually more positive for brexit than if he supported leave?

Fella

Filo25 wrote: »

Conrad, there's been plenty of fear mongering nonsense from both sides in this particular "debate"

I'd disagree with that pretty strongly. The Remain camp are fear-mongering on every subject they can think of such as the economy & national security. But no-one KNOWS if those things would be better or worse after Brexit, everything is just an opinion or a guess.

The leave camp on the other hand, are mainly accused of fear-mongering regarding immigration, but their position, that if we remain in the EU we have no control over our borders or on immigration levels, is not opinion, it is fact.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Perhaps we should go for the Norweigen model for now;


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/01/leave-camp-must-accept-that-norway-model-is-the-only-safe-way-to/




The Adam Smith Institute starts from the premise that the EU is "sclerotic, anti-democratic, immune to reform, and a political relic of a post-war order that no longer exists." It says the EEA option lets the public judge "what 'out' looks like" and keeps disruption to a minimum.


"The economic risks of leaving would thus be neutralised – it would be solely a disengagement from political integration. All the business scare stories about being cut off from the single market would fade away," it said.


The report argues that everybody could live with an EEA compromise, whether the Civil Service, or the US, or the EU itself. Britain would then be a sovereign actor, taking its own seat on the global bodies that increasingly regulate everything from car standards, to food safety, and banking rules.
"As Britain is already a contracting party to the EEA Agreement there would be no serious legal obstacle," it says.


David Cameron disparages the Norwegian model as a non-starter. “While they pay, they don’t have a say,” he says.


Actually they do. As our forensic report on Norway by Szu Ping Chan makes clear, they have a de facto veto over EU laws under Article 102 of the EEA agreement. Their net payments were £106 a head in 2014, a trivial sum.
They are exempt from the EU agricultural, fisheries, foreign, defence, and justice policies, yet they still have "passporting" rights for financial services. Their citizens can live in their Perigord moulins or on the Costa Del Sol just as contentedly as we can.


They do not have to implement all EU law as often claimed. Norway's latest report shows it has adopted just 1,349 of the 7,720 EU regulations in force, and 1,369 out of 1,965 EU directives.


The elegance of the EEA option is that Britain would retain access to the EU customs union while being able to forge free trade deals with any other country over time.


There would be no need for a desperate rush to both reach a modus vivendi with the EU and to renew all the EU's 80 bilateral deals with other countries and regional blocs before the two-year guillotine fell under Article 50, the EU secession clause.


Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, a former EU trade official (and Nick Clegg's wife), argues that Britain is so short of trade expertise that it would struggle to assemble 25 experts even after repatriating staff from the EU.
In this she is right. Where she is on shakier ground is to claim that we would need 500 officials "working intensely for a decade" to renew our third party trade deals.


Really? There is a simple administrative mechanism for the switch-over. All it requires is a filing at the United Nations under the "presumption of continuity" and trade goes on as before, a procedure used time and again over the post-war era.


This is what occurred after the break-up of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. It was the formula used for decolonisation in the 1960s. It would take a willful decision to override this mechanism of international law, and it is hard to see why a close allies such as US, Canada, or Japan would act in such a fashion.


The G20 and the G7 profess to stand for free trade and keep telling us a lurch towards protectionism would shatter the world's fragile economic order.

Sorry Conrad I did not read all of your post as I wanted to make the point that Denmark although not in the EU is in the Schengen zone. Meaning free movement of all EU citizens.
See here http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/index_en.htm

If there is a Brexit any negotiations with the EU for free trade will I understand mean that the UK will have to sign up to Schengen just like Denmark AND Switzeland have had to do.