If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Minford believes in efficient markets, so that markets incorporate all relevant information and price assets correctly.

I wonder how he marries his view that leaving the EU will be fantastic for the UK, with the fact that whenever a UK exit from the EU looks more likely, Sterling shows significant falls.

It certainly suggests that the markets don't share his optimism about the positive economic impact of Brexit.

Exchange rates has varied for the last 50 years without any promise of the UK leaving the EU.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

Exchange rates has varied for the last 50 years without any promise of the UK leaving the EU.

I'm sure that's an answer to a question, just not the one I asked.

Nobody's denying that lots of economic factors drive exchange rates, but if Brexit is just pure good news for the British economy, why isn't Sterling rallying every time Brexit looks more likely, instead of doing the opposite.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

Minford believes in efficient markets, so that markets incorporate all relevant information and price assets correctly.

I wonder how he marries his view that leaving the EU will be fantastic for the UK, with the fact that whenever a UK exit from the EU looks more likely, Sterling shows significant falls.

It certainly suggests that the markets don't share his optimism about the positive economic impact of Brexit.

The markets dislike uncertainty.

I'll freely admit that there would initially be a shock to the economy and a continued period of uncertainty whilst the negotiations on leaving took place. But over the course of the next 40+ years if we allowed our industry to bin the EU regulation and focused purely on being a global trading nation do you honestly believe that:

- Removing the CET and moving to (at worst) WTO rules that imports from the world market prices would increase?

- With a much smaller labour pool that wages would remain stagnant as they do now?

- We would be unable to negotiate any trade deals of our own (assuming we actually bothered to do so)?

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

I'm sure that's an answer to a question, just not the one I asked.

Nobody's denying that lots of economic factors drive exchange rates, but if Brexit is just pure good news for the British economy, why isn't Sterling rallying every time Brexit looks more likely, instead of doing the opposite.

The pound's value fluctuates with relation to other currencies all the time: events in USA, China and all over the world etc influence the exchange rates.
Why do you assume that a lower exchange rate would be bad news?
Germany has done rather well with its effectively low rate of exchange (held down by the other members of the Euro).
maybe you see Germany as a failing nation.

michaels

How does DC saying 'We can control migration in the EU' which is patently untrue help the Remain cause?

tommysaver

So.. it's lunch time and I have time for a 2 minute fag packet calculation.

Looking at the UK results last election...




Let's say we take half and half, straight 50/50 for IN and OUT votes. (For Conservative, Labour & Liberal)

That leaves 11,548,871 votes each way.

Now to add on UKIP's votes, lets say 100% of UKIP voters vote again for OUT.

That;s 15,429,970 votes OUT, vs 11,548,871 votes IN. Clearly I am just thinking out loud here, don't insult my scientific approach.


So... What would happen if the entire lot bar UKIP voted 55% IN, 45% OUT.

We are left with 12,703,758 votes to be IN, 10,393,983 votes to be OUT.... but then you add UKIP into the equation and you have an extra 3,881,099 votes to play with.

Totalling OUT votes to 14,275,082... a victory of over a million still.

I just found this an interesting way to spend 5 minutes, obviously you can engineer the outcome how you like, but I think it's going to be an extremely close call with real potential OUT will bag it.

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

How does DC saying 'We can control migration in the EU' which is patently untrue help the Remain cause?

It doesn't....
He should stick to underlining the massive benefits EU migration has brought this country during the past decade. But then again, I'm not a Conservative Party policy director nor speech writer.

Filo25

CLAPTON wrote: »

The pound's value fluctuates with relation to other currencies all the time: events in USA, China and all over the world etc influence the exchange rates.
Why do you assume that a lower exchange rate would be bad news?
Germany has done rather well with its effectively low rate of exchange (held down by the other members of the Euro).
maybe you see Germany as a failing nation.

Sorry Clapton, once again that appears to be an answer to a different question.

I'm not asking whether a stronger or weaker currency would be advantageous in the current macroeconomic environment.

I'm asking, if the economic case for Brexit is as strong as Minford claims is Sterling selling off, rather then being bought at the times when evidence comes out that Brexit is more likely.

Not so much a question from my point of view more from Minford's belief in efficient markets.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

How does DC saying 'We can control migration in the EU' which is patently untrue help the Remain cause?

It doesn't, but he doesn't have a choice as he is boxed in by previous (ludicrous) Tory immigration pledges.

He can't very well come out and say it was a lot of populist nonsense now.

Its even more embarrassing for him as they are missing the target on the fully controllable non-EU immigration, never mind on the EU element!

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

He can't very well come out and say it was a lot of populist nonsense now.

His current populist nonsense is all the fear monger sound bites so many have been taken in by. If only I could get remains to see that they're being spectacularly conned.


For example consider the trading leverage we would enjoy by cutting a deal with the Commonwealth (2.2 bn citizens), whereby nations such as India, Singapore and Malaysia are statically and economically important to China and the ASEAN bloc...............


Imagine the almost immediate benefits of reclaiming our entire fishing grounds (Norway benefits massively by having control of her fishing), anf the estimate £5bn pa boost?


But 2 of many benefits ready for the taking that Dave and his establishment chums have not ever considered.


Surely this should concern you a little?