If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

michaels wrote: »

Pretty sad for Poland that when they joined the EU and should have been benefiting from catch-up growth, their brightest and best were all moving to the UK and doing jobs below their educational level because UK pay rates for low skill jobs exceed those for skilled workers in Poland. Also bad news for low skilled workers in the UK of course.

Now we have an Eastern European diaspora of course it makes us even more attractive to new migrants and English being the world's second tongue makes it easier for them to settle here than elsewhere in Europe.

Also correlates with the analysis I posted by Edward Hugh.

Whilst the countries borrowed their way to prosperity on the back of the EU the line of credit has dried up and there's a black hole in their demographics because - and rightly so - there are other countries in the EU which offer them better opportunities.

buglawton

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Reading this article about Eastern European members of the EU and their economy suggests that the GDP and living standards increased due to massive borrowing after adopting the Euro. It took a massive hit in the financial crash circa 2008 and is struggling to recover and appears to have led to a population crisis due to emigration from those states.

http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/eastern-european-growth-coming-rapidly.html#more

Hungary is a good one to look at, they were experiencing steady growth for many years before joining, then borrowed their way to growth after joining and after the crash have managed to run a budget surplus but nothing is working there. Exports and GDP are stagnant, retail sales are steadily falling, Construction output is falling and consumption is falling.

Another interesting country to look at within that article is Bulgaria where although they too borrowed their way to growth since 2007 construction and retail are steadily falling, consumption has rallied but is stagnant which in the overall seems like a blessing it would seem. And ultimately GDP is falling since the pre-EU days.

Similar trends can be seen with the Czech Republic and Romania,

On the other hand, Lithuania is doing rather well. Steady growth and ranks 6th after Denmark & UK in some sort of 'Regional Ranking'.

mwpt

gfplux wrote: »

Vat in Luxembourg is 17%. 0% on Printed Books
I mistook the point as I thought they were accused of AVOIDING VAT.
Paying extra VAT to the UK Government is unlikely to help UK online sellers who may be struggling.
As an aside. Can you or anyone tell me if their Amazon invoices show VAT at 15% or 17% when the UK rate is 20%, as consulting an acquaintance about this he was convinced that Amazon has for some time had to charge the correct VAT rates when selling to the UK and other Country's.

I don't know if Amazon pocket the difference or pay the 20% VAT to the UK, but my latest order shows 20% VAT. The item was "Sold by: Amazon EU S.a.r.L."

mwpt

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Reading this article about Eastern European members of the EU and their economy suggests that the GDP and living standards increased due to massive borrowing after adopting the Euro. It took a massive hit in the financial crash circa 2008 and is struggling to recover and appears to have led to a population crisis due to emigration from those states.

http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.co.uk/2011/08/eastern-european-growth-coming-rapidly.html#more

Hungary is a good one to look at, they were experiencing steady growth for many years before joining, then borrowed their way to growth after joining and after the crash have managed to run a budget surplus but nothing is working there. Exports and GDP are stagnant, retail sales are steadily falling, Construction output is falling and consumption is falling.

Another interesting country to look at within that article is Bulgaria where although they too borrowed their way to growth since 2007 construction and retail are steadily falling, consumption has rallied but is stagnant which in the overall seems like a blessing it would seem. And ultimately GDP is falling since the pre-EU days.

Similar trends can be seen with the Czech Republic and Romania,

I'm sorry if I'm being dim, and I admit I skimmed the article, but where does it say that membership of the EU has been harmful to the new eastern european members? I'm also trying to find the part that shows how they initially borrowed their way to growth but again, very much skimmed it. Perhaps you could quote directly. Or even, post some graphs showing some examples of eastern european countries with lower GDP than prior to joining the EU.

After all, you guys made the claim that joining has been harmful to them.

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

My feeling is that the polling is rubbish. They don't have any good way of sampling for a Brexit so are relying on political party support as a proxy for having a good sample. At the same time it seems that the de facto leaders of the Brexit and Remainiacs are all Tories!.

They have other issues too.....

http://politicscounter.com/?p=69

Generali

michaels wrote: »

This could be important though - if the less publicised ukip out campaign can reach the labour c2des who started to go that way in the ge (and remember by voting in the ge they demonstrated that they do vote) whilst the totally half-hearted official labour campaign fails to motivate the more affluent labour middle class stay supporters. The only bit of the labour party really vocal on stay is the blairite bit of the plp who seem to have little credibility with te rank and file.

I wonder if Corbyn being seen as a man going against his principals to support remain is actually more positive for brexit than if he supported leave?

I think that Mr Corbyn is pretty toxic and as a Remainiac I'm very happy for him to keep twaddling on about Palestinian fair trade humus or whatever it is that the bien pensant are on about in their million quid homes in Islington these days.

Mr Corbyn is a gift for whoever is on the other side.

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Can I ask you or other Remains something>


Imagine it's the 24th and Leave has won.
What would you expect Cameron's speech to mention (aside from resignation lol)?


Honestly - what would he be saying - doom n gloom or something else?

How about this.

The public has spoken..... tomorrow I will recall Parliament and seek the support of the House to invoke Article 50.......

As your PM I will lead the negotiations wit the EU and try to get the very best deal I can (I cannot trust those disloyal B'stards to do it properly) .....

I will try to negotiate the best trade arrangements with the EU as I can ( I'll try and stay as close to the EU as I can)........

Mr Gove, the Lord High Chancellor will take responsibility for an Act of Parliament to terminate the role of the European Court ( he can also sort out the legal cluster **** that we are now in too).......,

Boris will join the cabinet and take responsibility for negotiating trade agreements (he did say it was not a problem)

I will make a further announcement in due course to Parliament. I have got to visit the Queen now (she is really mad with me that the SNP has already called for an independence referendum to sever the Union).

No Faisil, I cannot take questions at this time.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

in what way can the growth of the EU to incorporate another state be considered 'fearmongering'
are you against the people of Turkey benefiting from free trade etc with the EU?

They already have it in the customs union for most things I think.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

They already have it in the customs union for most things I think.

the key is free movement of people........................
which many of the 'remain' people see as fearmongering

michaels

BobQ wrote: »

They already have it in the customs union for most things I think.

So a country with a customs union with the EU but one that doesn't have to accept EU directives nor the free movement of people - oh and I beleive visa free travel and the EU pay then money each year. Surely a fairy tale, no country could aspire to such a relationship - could they?.....

Thanks Bob, I knew you would cross over to the 'dark side'