If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Which is no doubt exactly why a piece appeared on the BBC this morning noting there's a snowballs chance in hell of MP's voting to leave the Single Market even if we vote Brexit.

They know full well how stuffed UK plc is without free movement of people and access to the Single Market.

They also know full well they'll all be out of office if we do leave and suffer the inevitable 'DIY Recession' that would cause - let alone the 'Austerity on Stilts' that would be the consequence if we actually left the single market and lost mass EU immigration.

And reject the will of the people?

That would be an incredibly dicey strategy for all MPs. They could essentially forget retaining their seats and the stage would quite easily be set for a UKIP government in the next GE. I think we should leave, but I don't want a UKIP government.

And that's the least I would expect to happen, you may well end up with mass protest and riots.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

And reject the will of the people?
.

You're not voting to end free movement nor leave the single market.

The only question on the ballot paper is to leave or remain in the EU.

As Switzerland and Norway prove, you can remain part of the Single Market, pay all the fees for membership, and have to accept free movement of labour to do so.

But as the Brexiteers keep telling us this isn't about immigration but rather about "democracy" and "restoring the primacy of our Parliament" then nobody should complain if our parliament promptly signs us up to remain in the single market.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You're not voting to end free movement nor leave the single market.

The only question on the ballot paper is to leave or remain in the EU.

As Switzerland and Norway prove, you can remain part of the Single Market, pay all the fees for membership, and have to accept free movement of labour to do so.

But as the Brexiteers keep telling us this isn't about immigration but rather about "democracy" and "restoring the primacy of our Parliament" then nobody should complain if our parliament promptly signs us up to remain in the single market.

I fully understand that leaving the EU is different to completely severing ties to the single market and the idea of free movement of people. I read what you said as rejecting the vote to invoke article 50.

If parliament then decided to retain access to the single market and as a consequence we needed to retain the ideal of free movement of people then so be it. As a Leave voter I'm not dead against the free movement of people or the single market as I am against the shackles around us as a nation as a full member of the EU. Only a proportion of our economy exports to the EU yet 100% of our economy is currently subject to their rules.

I can see that a significant number of leave voters would be opposed to free movement of people, but it does solve a number of issues raised by Remain and the economists they hold up as paragons of truth, as does access to the single market. I believe the freedom given to the rest of the economy would be a massive boon and the ability for us to sort out our own trade deals around the world.

If you look at the current state of the EU, Remain say we have a seat at the table and have a say. I agree, but we're 1 of 28 nations, I don't see that as being vastly different to an EFTA arrangement. Within EFTA we would have a veto on regulation (as Norway does and has exercised) so to me it seems like the best of both worlds. If we could negotiate EFTA with limits on the free movement of people that would be even better and for me would be my preferred option over a full break.

Conrad

Boris speech about to start - big guns lined-up


http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo

Conrad

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo


First question to the panel - a typical daft remain question 'will immigrants have to go back home'


Of course not air head

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo


First question to the panel - a typical daft remain question 'will immigrants have to go back home'


Of course not air head

Isn't that part of the problem Leave faces? Unlike Yes! which could group around the SNP, there is no unifying party that is the face of Leave. The future could be Boris or it could be the hard left of the Labour Party or it could be UKIP. Leave is campaigning around a black hole plus no immigrants.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I believe the freedom given to the rest of the economy would be a massive boon and the ability for us to sort out our own trade deals around the world.

And I believe the loss of influence in rulemaking and current ability to veto all sorts of things from within the EU would result in significant economic harm to the UK with almost no benefit at all tot he rest of the economy.

The "shackles" thing promoted by Brexiteers is a pernicious myth that appears to have gained traction with the masses, but it is as most economists agree, absolute codswallop.

The EU is our biggest trading partner.

Trade to the EU has grown in cash terms over the last decade.

Trade outwith the EU has grown even more over the last decade.

Clearly we're not hamstrung by our membership of the EU any more than Germany (one of the World's most successful exporters) and I don't hear them complaining about the EU 'stifling trade' with the rest of the World.

Just the opposite in fact.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

Isn't that part of the problem Leave faces? Unlike Yes! which could group around the SNP, there is no unifying party that is the face of Leave. The future could be Boris or it could be the hard left of the Labour Party or it could be UKIP. Leave is campaigning around a black hole plus no immigrants.

..and yet Leave is polling neck and neck.

Team Remain keep telling everyone just how brilliant the EU is on every single facet of our lives, so why can't people see it?

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo


First question to the panel - a typical daft remain question 'will immigrants have to go back home'


Of course not air head

Why 'air head'?
If EU immigrants currently have rights to reside under EU treaties, why should we assume these rights will remain in place if we choose to exit said treaties?

ruggedtoast

kabayiri wrote: »

..and yet Leave is polling neck and neck.

Team Remain keep telling everyone just how brilliant the EU is on every single facet of our lives, so why can't people see it?

Because a lot of things people blame the EU for have nothing to do with the EU, and a lot of things people like about the EU it isn't given credit for.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/06/netherlands-eu-immigration-liberalism-european

For example in the Netherlands their problem with immigration is largely around North African inflow that they were having problems with assimilating 20 years ago.

Ditto with Germany and the Turkish guest workers.

But that has nothing to do with the EU. It has everything to do with Gerrmany and the Netherland's policies to North African and Turkish immigration. Policies that they are using to cover up their own declining populations and reducing productivity under the neo liberal system they are choosing to live in.

There is nothing particularly wrong with a gently declining birth rate, but if you are yoked to a fractional reserve economic system that demands endless, ballooning debt, then you have a problem unless you keep adding new consumers and borrowers.

They can get rid of the immigrants but they would be much better off starting with the bankers.