If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

Given that research shows that the lowest paid that have lost the most from immigration have lost about 5% of their wages will have had most of that made up by increased welfare in most cases, the complaints about financial losses are probably hugely overstated.

TBH I think a lot of the Leave campaign comes down to poorer people not having the life they aspire to and looking to blame someone else for it. Leave is showing them that they can blame the immigrants or the EU elite for that.

The fact, of course, is that the average person in the poorest 20% of British people has about the same income as the average person in China. The difference between the two of course is that the British person will also probably be receiving welfare payments on top, accruing retirement benefits and able to receive vast amounts of healthcare. Plus almost limitless education, massively subsidised, is available to the Briton.

Apparently that's not enough.

I pay the higher rate of tax (40%) and I'm voting to leave not on immigration grounds, in fact that's some way down my list of reasons to vote to leave. I'd be quite happy with an EFTA agreement at this stage. A happy medium.

Rinoa

Threatened with economic armagedon and world war 3, the people give their answer:



Keep up the good work Dave.

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

Go to a presentation hosted by educators/politicos in somewhere like South Wales and ask them about the future for the young.

They will talk about the 'digital economy', or that other horse doodoo 'future jobs we haven't even imagined'. The future of "educational strategists" in South Wales is at least one growth area.

Perhaps they should be honest and give everyone a free ticket to London Euston and a map of the underground.

Maybe they should.

If welfare benefits were time limited then people would leave moribund places until they got so cheap that someone would set up a factory.

As it is, BTLers can pick up housing benefits there and bookies, pubs, supermarkets and drug dealers can grab the cash welfare benefits.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I pay the higher rate of tax (40%) and I'm voting to leave not on immigration grounds, in fact that's some way down my list of reasons to vote to leave. I'd be quite happy with an EFTA agreement at this stage. A happy medium.

You have nobody offering you an EFTA agreement.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

Threatened with economic armagedon and world war 3, the people give their answer:

Yes.

With a 5 point lead for Remain.

Subsequently manipulated with a fictional invasion by Turkish immigrants and the latest migrant bashing outbreak, they've now swung to leave.

Lets see what next week brings.;)

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

You have nobody offering you an EFTA agreement.

Whoa hold on. It's certainly a possibility. Out of all the possible outcomes for me it strikes a balance between the two sides of the argument.

As far as I can tell these are the options available to the UK:

- Remain within the EU and continue to operate as they have done since Lisbon. It's not a vote for the status quo.

- Leave the EU, revert to WTO rules. Economists on the whole seem to think this will be bad for the UK economy, not that I would trust them but a lot of people of the Remain persuasion do.

- Leave the EU, negotiate an EFTA agreement which as part of Article 50 we are entitled to do during the 2 year period. Based on what's been said on both sides of the argument it would concede single market access to Remain, it would concede de-regulation of non EU business within our economy to Leave, it would concede absolute power to the UK parliament to Leave, it would more than likely concede the free movement of people to Remain, it would concede unilateral trade deals to Leave.

- Leave the EU, negotiate a special deal for the UK. However much I would like this I don't see it as a likely outcome.

Rather than just telling me that's not what is on offer perhaps you could take the comment in the spirit in which it was meant.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Whoa hold on. It's certainly a possibility. Out of all the possible outcomes for me it strikes a balance between the two sides of the argument.

As far as I can tell these are the options available to the UK:

- Remain within the EU and continue to operate as they have done since Lisbon. It's not a vote for the status quo.

- Leave the EU, revert to WTO rules. Economists on the whole seem to think this will be bad for the UK economy, not that I would trust them but a lot of people of the Remain persuasion do.

- Leave the EU, negotiate an EFTA agreement which as part of Article 50 we are entitled to do during the 2 year period. Based on what's been said on both sides of the argument it would concede single market access to Remain, it would concede de-regulation of non EU business within our economy to Leave, it would concede absolute power to the UK parliament to Leave, it would more than likely concede the free movement of people to Remain, it would concede unilateral trade deals to Leave.

- Leave the EU, negotiate a special deal for the UK. However much I would like this I don't see it as a likely outcome.

Rather than just telling me that's not what is on offer perhaps you could take the comment in the spirit in which it was meant.

I agree it's a possibility but it's not on some menu that you get to pick off.

The most likely outcome two years after the Brexit clock starts ticking is that nothing has been arranged.

Turkey has been trying to join the EU since 1961. How long do you think it might take to leave?

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

I agree it's a possibility but it's not on some menu that you get to pick off.

The most likely outcome two years after the Brexit clock starts ticking is that nothing has been arranged.

Turkey has been trying to join the EU since 1961. How long do you think it might take to leave?

one wonders quite the relation between the UK leaving and Turkey joining except maybe a bottle or two of red wine.

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

I agree it's a possibility but it's not on some menu that you get to pick off.

The most likely outcome two years after the Brexit clock starts ticking is that nothing has been arranged.

Turkey has been trying to join the EU since 1961. How long do you think it might take to leave?

I wouldn't have thought you can equate Turkey's accession to the EU with our leaving it. They're very different issues and scenarios.

With regards to how long it would take, I don't know. It's never been done before and may need to be ratified by national parliaments not just EU institutions.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought you can equate Turkey's accession to the EU with our leaving it. They're very different issues and scenarios.

With regards to how long it would take, I don't know. It's never been done before and may need to be ratified by national parliaments not just EU institutions.

So you're going to vote Leave and then....fingers crossed and something to do with immigrants.

Good luck.