If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

Opinions on what the recession is going to look like?

Back to the 'good old days' before we joined the EU I suppose.

tommysaver

One thing is for certain, whatever happens; if it goes wrong by staying in the EU, 50% of the country will moan 'I told you so' and vice versa. Oh, and taxes, lots of tax. Yay!

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

Anyone seen any good articles that don't use Treasury models???

Odd question, there is masses of article out there showing how we will prosper and not enter recession, however if one chooses to ignore that and favour a narrow highly biased view the yes, we might get a mild recession (we wont).


As my economist mate Friday night said, economists love group think, its how they got on in the industry. The consensus never see's a looming crash and usually picks the wrong horse - Norway was going to fail as were we when we refused to join the Euro - and yet still we listen to these 'experts'

Guess what; Bureaucrats love bureaucracy and gravy trains

TrickyTree83

Conrad wrote: »

I've watched /heard just about every debate and interview and have seen the discussion ranging into dozens of areas, often quite bewildering really.


Even one area, migration is a always a multi faceted debate

So you're in the same boat as me (not sure if that was the point you were making?). Immigration is a complicated issue in itself, does it compress wages? Do they take jobs from UK citizens? Does unlimited migration into the UK hurt other EU countries, especially high skilled migrants?

But it still isn't the only issue in the debate, just the same as the economy isn't either. Yet if you watch the BBC/ITV/Sky News you could be forgiven for thinking that you're being asked to vote on whether you are for/against

- the economy within the EU/out of the EU
- immigration in the EU/out of the EU

setmefree2

mrginge wrote: »

Does anyone know if the independent Bank of England has said what action they will take in the event of Brexit?
Surely they have a contingency in place?

The Bank of England (BoE) has devised contingency plans in the event of Britain voting to leave the European Union. According to the first of such plans, which was announced on 7 March, BoE said it will provide billions of pounds to the financial markets to prevent them from collapsing and ensuring lenders do not fall into a crisis

According to the plan, the central bank will offer three Indexed Long-term Repo (ILTR) operations, a cheap money facility, to banks, building societies and brokers, in the event of a Brexit vote. The move will ensure these institutions will have enough cash to keep markets functioning smoothly if other participants refuse to do business with them.
The ILTRs will be offered just before and after the poll, on 14, 21 and 28 June. This cheap money facility is understood to ensure that lenders struggling to finance themselves will have access to money. Lenders who want to increase their cash deposit at their BoE account will be allowed to do so by providing the central bank with assets such as books of mortgages. While the collateral should be of good quality, the lenders are expected to return the money to the BoE within six months.
BoE revealed that a similar arrangement had been made at the time of the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. This was to protect banks as it was then feared that investors would withdraw their money and consumers would prefer English currency to Scottish banknotes.
While this facility was then kept a secret, this time around, the BoE has revealed the same to ensure trading continues to run smoothly. While a BoE source said this was just a precautionary arrangement, the central bank said, "[it would] continue to monitor market conditions carefully and keep its operations under review".

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

Does anyone know if the independent Bank of England has said what action they will take in the event of Brexit?
Surely they have a contingency in place?
Why are they so good at telling us what they *think* will happen, yet seem to go quiet about what they will actually do. I mean, unlike the leave campaign who are not in power, the Bank of England actually have some responsibility and ability to act to calm the economy massacre they have predicted.

Perhaps they have said and I've missed it. If so could someone point me in the direction as I'm keen to know what interest rates will be.

Hah, there's a video on Youtube showing Jacob Rees-Mogg asking this exact question. Mark Carney said they don't do it because there are too many unknowns, just like they don't do it for every political party manifesto in a general election. They only do forecasts on discreet issues. Yet they've done one for Remain.

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

Odd question, there is masses of article out there showing how we will prosper and not enter recession,

Really? In the FT’s annual poll of more than 100 leading thinkers, not one thought a vote for Brexit would enhance UK growth in 2016.

You have an Article that shows we won't enter recession in the next 12 months? Link please.

TBH I'm just interested in reality not some fantasy.

Conrad

mrginge wrote: »

Does anyone know if the independent Bank of England has said what action they will take in the event of Brexit?
Surely they have a contingency in place?
Why are they so good at telling us what they *think* will happen, yet seem to go quiet about what they will actually do. I mean, unlike the leave campaign who are not in power, the Bank of England actually have some responsibility and ability to act to calm the economy massacre they have predicted.

Perhaps they have said and I've missed it. If so could someone point me in the direction as I'm keen to know what interest rates will be.

Do not worry, on the 24th all gloom and misery will have disappeared to be replaced with statements of confidence and the can-do approach. We aren't idiots. Also recall after 2008 the safe haven effect which kept rates low - we'll be comparatively much less exposed than the rest of the EU following brexit.


A useful mental exercise is to imagine Cameron's post brexit speech - all the doom and gloom will have gone in a puff

mystic_trev

Always thought this would be a strong possibility in the event of a Leave vote wining.

MPs could initiate ‘reverse Maastricht’ to minimise number of EU laws the UK pulls out of, or push for a second referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

TrickyTree83

mystic_trev wrote: »

Always thought this would be a strong possibility in the event of a Leave vote wining.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

I feel vindicated that a chair of a well respected institution has agreed that EEA/ETFA would be a good middle ground.