If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

mystic_trev wrote: »

Always thought this would be a strong possibility in the event of a Leave vote wining.



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/pro-eu-mps-could-mount-guerrilla-campaign-to-reverse-brexit-decision

I think a lot of Brexit supporting MPs would quietly be happy with that.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

I think a lot of Brexit supporting MPs would quietly be happy with that.

Absolutely, the main sticking point as others on here have pointed out would be a large vote for Leave on the basis of reducing migration into the country.

That'll be a large stumbling block. I still maintain it's not the only reason to vote to leave though.

Conrad

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I feel vindicated that a chair of a well respected institution has agreed that EEA/ETFA would be a good middle ground.

Last week I was saying I would not mind a Norway deal for now, just speak to Norwegians and you soon find out how much better they have it.


For all sorts of reasons we could then address the free movement issue.


Having said this I am sure we will get a 'British deal' anyway

Sapphire

Conrad wrote: »

Do not worry, on the 24th all gloom and misery will have disappeared to be replaced with statements of confidence and the can-do approach. We aren't idiots. Also recall after 2008 the safe haven effect which kept rates low - we'll be comparatively much less exposed than the rest of the EU following brexit.

A useful mental exercise is to imagine Cameron's post brexit speech - all the doom and gloom will have gone in a puff

I look forward so very much to this day, for several major reasons. I've also read a lot of the remarks/predictions for both sides. I was inclined to think that I would vote leave before the referendum (mainly due to gut feeling), but the more I read and find out the facts, the more convinced I am that Vote Leave is the right thing to do.

Thanks for your well-reasoned and optimistic posts on this forum.

Happy days ahead. :T

Conrad

Sapphire wrote: »

I look forward so very much to this day, for several major reasons. I've also read a lot of the remarks/predictions for both sides. I was inclined to think that I would vote leave before the referendum (mainly due to gut feeling), but the more I read and find out the facts, the more convinced I am that Vote Leave is the right thing to do.

Thanks for your well-reasoned and optimistic posts on this forum.

Happy days ahead. :T

TBH I'm surprised people have seen through Camerons institutional backed relentless scare mongering. I thought the people were frankly not confident / intelligent enough to see through it, but it seems I might have been wrong.


Even those currently frightened into submission will look at our flag at the Brazil Olympics and suddenly feel a swell of additional pride that we're 'doin our thang' in the world

Filo25

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I feel vindicated that a chair of a well respected institution has agreed that EEA/ETFA would be a good middle ground.

As a Remainer I wouldn't be crying myself to sleep over an outcome of EEA membership.

I do think a lot (not all by any means) of Brexit voters would feel hugely betrayed though.

Free movement of Labour is the issue driving a lot of the Brexit vote, as can be seen by the high ranking given to immigration as an issue in all the polling around it.

If it happens, I would expect it to actually strengthen support for UKIP rather than reduce their relevance.

tommysaver

Odds to leave the EU

31st May 5.0 aka 4/1

1st June 3.75 to 3.50

3rd June 3.40 to 3.20

6th June 3.20 to 3.00

Worried I've missed the boat to put a good chunk on. Can't see it rising again much..

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

TBH I'm surprised people have seen through Camerons institutional backed relentless scare mongering. I thought the people were frankly not confident / intelligent enough to see through it, but it seems I might have been wrong.


Even those currently frightened into submission will look at our flag at the Brazil Olympics and suddenly feel a swell of additional pride that we're 'doin our thang' in the world

Could you please stop this "frightened into submission" rubbish Conrad, some of us in the Remain camp are more than capable of making up our own minds without paying much attention to what has been a dismal campaign from both sides.

I could make plenty of jibes about Brexit voters as well, but I won't because many of them are genuinely making a decision which they think is in the best interest of the country, as are many Remainers oddly enough.

Filo25

tommysaver wrote: »

Odds to leave the EU

31st May 5.0 aka 5/1

1st June 3.75 to 3.50

3rd June 3.40 to 3.20

6th June 3.20 to 3.00

Worried I've missed the boat to put a good chunk on. Can't see it rising again much..

Isn't 5.0 actually 4/1?

I have a couple of hundred on Brexit as well, I still think it is being priced far too generously by the betting markets.

tommysaver

Filo25 wrote: »

Isn't 5.0 actually 4/1?

I have a couple of hundred on Brexit as well, I still think it is being priced far too generously by the betting markets.

Sorry, yes it is 4/1. I only work in decimals... and it was 5.0. D'oh!

What odds did you manage to get on with? Certainly seems a fair punt.