If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

Now that Macron is likely to be the French President, maybe the idea put forward post Brexit by Jean Pisani-Ferry for a Continental Partnership may get more traction?

The CP proposal envisages a politically integrated EU, in a close partnership with other nations who have access to the single market but are outside the EU. Crucially it involves some labour mobility but without freedom of movement.

Since January Jean Pisani-Ferry has been the principal economic advisor to Macron.


http://bruegel.org/2016/08/europe-after-brexit-a-proposal-for-a-continental-partnership/

kabayiri

So what's the EU long term game plan?

Is it to impoverish the UK consumer so much that in future they don't bother with villas in Tuscany or holidays in Greece. Maybe they can't afford French wine and have to drink more warm English beer.

Do you really think that the UK would maintain strong security and military relations against such a backdrop?

WengerIn

Rinoa wrote: »

All the more remarkable that we manufactured 2,000,000 in 1972, and most of the parts too.

The following year we joined Europe. Manufacturing has been on a downhill spiral ever since.

Hmm. We made 2 million cars which were substandard yet sold by the bucketload while having tariffs in place. Hmmm.:think:

This goes to the heart of how you hope Brexit Britain to be. Do you want to sell the best the British has to offer to the rest of the world in exchange for the best they have to offer or do you want to make everything in Britain to consume in Britain whether good or bad?

Should the French be forced to consume French beer while we drink English wine? It seems to be a poorer world to me.

CKhalvashi

BobQ wrote: »

Now that Macron is likely to be the French President, maybe the idea put forward post Brexit by Jean Pisani-Ferry for a Continental Partnership may get more traction?

The CP proposal envisages a politically integrated EU, in a close partnership with other nations who have access to the single market but are outside the EU. Crucially it involves some labour mobility but without freedom of movement.

Since January Jean Pisani-Ferry has been the principal economic advisor to Macron.


http://bruegel.org/2016/08/europe-after-brexit-a-proposal-for-a-continental-partnership/

How much would this cost? Both in terms of money (loss) and what we'd get from it (gain) compared to being inside the EU?

I'm gathering not favourably when put down in raw numbers, but that's true of most options in the current situation.

kabayiri wrote: »

So what's the EU long term game plan?

Is it to impoverish the UK consumer so much that in future they don't bother with villas in Tuscany or holidays in Greece. Maybe they can't afford French wine and have to drink more warm English beer.

Do you really think that the UK would maintain strong security and military relations against such a backdrop?

Well, if British citizens can't live in their villas in Tuscany, there seems little point in buying one, especially if looking at retirement.

The closest visa requires an income of around €2600 for a single person according to a 5 second Google, which is more than most peoples pensions. It may (or may not) be available only to US citizens, taking a look at the page I've found.

Nowhere near as good as being able to jump on a plane with almost guaranteed entry, right?

BobQ

WengerIn wrote: »

Hmm. We made 2 million cars which were substandard yet sold by the bucketload while having tariffs in place. Hmmm.:think:

This goes to the heart of how you hope Brexit Britain to be. Do you want to sell the best the British has to offer to the rest of the world in exchange for the best they have to offer or do you want to make everything in Britain to consume in Britain whether good or bad?

Should the French be forced to consume French beer while we drink English wine? It seems to be a poorer world to me.

Maybe Boris can pick up a licence to build Trabants or Ladas on his travels?

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

All the more remarkable that we manufactured 2,000,000 in 1972, and most of the parts too.

The following year we joined Europe. Manufacturing has been on a downhill spiral ever since.

That was then this is now. If I thought you were right and that we could return to the same standard of living by being totally self sufficient in manufactured goods then there might be some point to this suggestion.

But we live in a globalised world where it is simply more cost effective to make components in large volumes in a small number of countries and for manufacturers to import and integrate those parts not made in your country.

Even if this trend were reversible, we need raw materials to do this. Gone are days when the British Empire enabled us to demand raw materials from any underdeveloped nation that we had once conquered.

Yes we may be able to make some steps towards establishing UK supply chains but we will never survive in a globalised economy doing that.

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

So what's the EU long term game plan?

Is it to impoverish the UK consumer so much that in future they don't bother with villas in Tuscany or holidays in Greece. Maybe they can't afford French wine and have to drink more warm English beer.

Do you really think that the UK would maintain strong security and military relations against such a backdrop?

But even if we don't go as far as impoverishment, there is a real risk of a boycott of EU goods. This can of course go both ways, but we're the ones running a trade deficit, so there is more to lose.

I do worry though that the extent to which the EU is a political project is totally overshadowing its economic role.

WengerIn

vivatifosi wrote: »

But even if we don't go as far as impoverishment, there is a real risk of a boycott of EU goods. This can of course go both ways, but we're the ones running a trade deficit, so there is more to lose.

I do worry though that the extent to which the EU is a political project is totally overshadowing its economic role.

The funny thing with the EU is that it's main economic function is to get out of the way of business and let them trade freely in a regulated environment. By far the most important function of the EU and its most successful policy is the single market.

Economically the EU is pretty successful. Unemployment is high in a lot of the member states but that's the fault of the lunatic policies pursued by those countries, not of the EU and nothing some decent supply side policies couldn't fix. Standards of living are generally high and climbing, things that matter to Europeans like social protection and state education are largely effective and well financed.

We can point to examples of failure like Greece but the Greeks aren't even 1.5% of the population so this is hardly a widespread issue. Most of the countries in the EU are doing pretty well especially the middle income countries of central and eastern Europe like Poland (3.5% GDP real growth in 2016), Czech Rep (3.9%), Romania (3.4%) and Hungary (3%). In fact of the 28 member states only Greece managed to end 2016 with a smaller economy than it started with and as its population is shrinking that isn't entirely surprising.

Anyway y'all voted to leave which I think history will show to be a self-destructive mistake. Time will tell of course. Watch for the supply chains, that's where the devil lies in this deal and is why I talk about train wreck Brexit if there is just no deal (by a very long way the most likely outcome IMHO although far from a certainty).

Rinoa

WengerIn wrote: »

Hmm. We made 2 million cars which were substandard yet sold by the bucketload while having tariffs in place. Hmmm.:think:

This goes to the heart of how you hope Brexit Britain to be. Do you want to sell the best the British has to offer to the rest of the world in exchange for the best they have to offer or do you want to make everything in Britain to consume in Britain whether good or bad?

Should the French be forced to consume French beer while we drink English wine? It seems to be a poorer world to me.

I want to see a level playing field. Under EU procurement rules contracts have to go to the cheapest bidder.

Lets stick with cars. Many police forces use cars manufactured in Germany or France. Can you see German or French Police riding around in cars built in other countries? It would never happen.

Same with the Post Office buying Fiat VW and Peugeot vans whilst Germany and France favour their own. Of course we don't make many vans these days. After decades of the UK opening their arms to anyone who wants to sell us stuff whilst others give the big contracts to their own factories we've been suckered out of the market.

Fortunately the 45 years of madness is finally coming to a close.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

So what's the EU long term game plan?

Is it to impoverish the UK consumer so much that in future they don't bother with villas in Tuscany or holidays in Greece. Maybe they can't afford French wine and have to drink more warm English beer.

Do you really think that the UK would maintain strong security and military relations against such a backdrop?

I would imagine their long term gameplan is to get the best possible deal for the EU.

Maybe they don't think the UK's bargaining position is as strong as many on here do so will take an opening position of trying to impose terms, it doesn't mean that will be the final position reached but I would suggest it was naive of anyone to think they would do anything but come out and talk tough in the opening salvos.