If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

I want to see a level playing field. Under EU procurement rules contracts have to go to the cheapest bidder.

Lets stick with cars. Many police forces use cars manufactured in Germany or France. Can you see German or French Police riding around in cars built in other countries? It would never happen.

Same with the Post Office buying Fiat VW and Peugeot vans whilst Germany and France favour their own. Of course we don't make many vans these days. After decades of the UK opening their arms to anyone who wants to sell us stuff whilst others give the big contracts to their own factories we've been suckered out of the market.

Fortunately the 45 years of madness is finally coming to a close.

That is a very interesting point. However how do you imagine that will change (in Britain) after leaving the EU.
Don't you want your Police riding around in the best car for the job!

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

You made a massive assumption there, that anyone who voices dissent against the EU voted to leave. Actually I voted remain.

As I have said here before I am increasingly annoyed by the EU and its hardening attitude towards the UK. At one point it said that it would offer citizenship to people who voted remain, now it increasingly wants to punish us as much as possible. This is in spite of the fact that at 16m we are a bigger population mass than many countries. I maintain that is in both the UK and the EUs interest to come to a good agreement when we are such close neighbours.

I agree that the single market is by and large a success. What I disagree with is the convenience with which the EU turns a blind eye economically. Yes, I am talking about Greece. You may well say it is a small part, but the fact remains that the fudged the numbers to allow it to join the Euro in the first place. Now that they are in, they fail to address it. How can that possibly give confidence if there is ongoing can kicking rather than addressing root problems? If such apathy spreads, how will it address problems in larger economies (eg Spain or Italy)?

These issues are more down to the single currency than any other issue, but the EU rules force new countries to join, even though it may not be expedient to do so. How is this in their best economic interest?

I am sad that you are angry that the EU is refining/polishing (hardening) its position leading up to the beginning of negotiations. Isn't that all sides of any negotiations do. The fact that PM May and her Government don't seem to be getting their ducks in a row and the EU is should make you angry at the present British Government, not the EU.

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

I wonder how many of those democratically elected Government's now regret not attempting to change the EU`s position when Cameron was begging for concessions a little over 12 months ago.
Thats not how the EU works, Merkel's alleged fury at Juncker and Tusk for the loss of the UK was soon forgotten and they all moved on to planning the supranational 'superstate' they all crave.

Many (most) of the voters who put those Democratic Governments in power considered that Britain already had too good a deal.

CKhalvashi

Quasar wrote: »

Excuse me. If you get out of a paying club, you don't expect to retain access to its facilities just the same. Other nations do not need to see the UK being "punished". They understand that if they are in the club they have certain benefits, if they are out they do not. It is up to them to decide if these benefits are worth staying.

There is NO punushment involved as such on the part of the EU. The fact is that being a member carries certain advantages that are not available when getting out.

Some may argue that such advantages are paltry in the first place, however you certainly cannot expect Brexit to carry no loss of EU advantages (whatever they may be). It is NOT punishment. It is the getting out of agreements and bearing the consequences thereof.

I think it depends how you view the fee though.

I personally view it as a payment for services, in terms of regulating a single market of domestic customers spanning 500 million relatively wealthy people.

Corporation tax is currently 20%, so £350m (on an erroneously high figure) divide 0.2 = £1.75bn, multiply by a 10% (on the low side) average markup = £17.5bn a week of exports, or £35 per person in the single market will break us even.

In reality, due to the EU's trade tentacles, it's much lower than this. I'd suggest that the tax on our exports to Germany would come close to covering 25% of this fee, with France, the Netherlands and Ireland looking at around 12.5% each.

Then factor in what we get back, and I'd say that with the ease (and paperwork/taxes on the other end), we're aiming at breakeven just on that. If you classify this as 'additional' exports, the situation is a lot less clear cut, however there are a lot of circumstances where under an EU FTA British companies have benefitted, with countries the UK wouldn't necessarily have a direct interest in. This has in turn produced a profit for British companies on either the work or investment in those countries, while helping the countries themselves develop.

The British consumer then gets to save money on goods moving in the other direction, and therefore that lower cost creates jobs on both sides, as the consumer can buy more with their income.

If you view it as anything else, you're both wrong and seriously deluded as to how the single market works.

As I've said already; EEA agreement through EFTA, outside the customs union if this is about trade as everyone suggests, anything else is stupidity

gfplux

Here is the full ten pages of the EU negotiating position as agreed in Brussels by the 27 this morning.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29-euco-guidelines_pdf/

This was how it was reported in the Wort.
http://www.wort.lu/en/politics/brussels-summit-eu-adopts-tough-brexit-talks-stance-59048f12a5e74263e13bdb0a

And The Guardian,
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/eu-leaders-set-to-take-tough-stance-in-special-brexit-summit

And the Independent.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/remaining-27-eu-countries-agree-brexit-guidelines-as-hollande-says-uk-must-pay-price-a7709016.html

Paywall at The Times.

Sorry, but I couldn't resist this quote from the Guardian.
"Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, also ruled out the idea of Theresa May gaining any advantage from an election win. “It’s an internal problem she wants to resolve in the Conservative party, to have not a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit, but Theresa’s Brexit,” he said. “We are very united. You seem surprised, but it’s a fact.

"Theresa's Brexit". Sounds like a great campaign slogan.

CKhalvashi

gfplux wrote: »

Here is the full ten pages of the EU negotiating position as agreed in Brussels by the 27 this morning.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29-euco-guidelines_pdf/

This was how it was reported in the Wort.
http://www.wort.lu/en/politics/brussels-summit-eu-adopts-tough-brexit-talks-stance-59048f12a5e74263e13bdb0a

Looks very reasonable to me.

I fully support the EU in this strategy, and I'm eagerly awaiting the British government to publish the strategy showing there is an amazing plan, but that they can't tell us what it is.

prosaver

Fella wrote: »

That may well be what they're claiming in newspapers, but if they actually felt that way they would be even bigger fools than they already appear to be. They could have almost certainly avoided Brexit by giving Cameron a few meaningless concessions & it was a massive tactical blunder by them not to do so. Pure hubris.

so your saying you believe newspaper talk

err , ok

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

Here is the full ten pages of the EU negotiating position as agreed in Brussels by the 27 this morning.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29-euco-guidelines_pdf/

.

They can ask for the moon if they like. Doesn't mean they'll get it.

Fella

prosaver wrote: »

so your saying you believe newspaper talk

err , ok

No I'm not. Keep up at the back.

Arklight

Looks like the EU are closing ranks. Exactly opposite to what the Brexits predicted.