If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Ahead of Saturdays meeting of the 27.

http://www.politico.eu/article/tusk-to-uk-we-must-first-sort-out-our-past-in-brexit-talks/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=9d6458b075-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_28&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-9d6458b075-190026745

"The EU and U.K. must “sort out our past” before “discussing our future,” European Council President Donald Tusk told EU leaders ahead of a summit on the bloc’s approach to Brexit.

In a letter to the 27 European leaders who on Saturday will attend a summit in Brussels on the negotiations, Tusk wrote that discussing the terms of the divorce before outlining a future relationship with the U.K. was “the only possible approach.”

“This is not only a matter of tactics,” the former Polish prime minister added.

Although British Prime Minister Theresa May wants to conduct trade talks at the same time as those on the terms of the split, the EU is adamant that won’t happen — and that chain of events is enshrined in its rules.

In the letter, Tusk hammered home that point. “Before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past,” he wrote, with the past meaning citizens’ rights, financial obligations and Northern Ireland."

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Ahead of Saturdays meeting of the 27.

http://www.politico.eu/article/tusk-to-uk-we-must-first-sort-out-our-past-in-brexit-talks/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=9d6458b075-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_28&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-9d6458b075-190026745

"The EU and U.K. must “sort out our past” before “discussing our future,” European Council President Donald Tusk told EU leaders ahead of a summit on the bloc’s approach to Brexit.

In a letter to the 27 European leaders who on Saturday will attend a summit in Brussels on the negotiations, Tusk wrote that discussing the terms of the divorce before outlining a future relationship with the U.K. was “the only possible approach.”

“This is not only a matter of tactics,” the former Polish prime minister added.

Although British Prime Minister Theresa May wants to conduct trade talks at the same time as those on the terms of the split, the EU is adamant that won’t happen — and that chain of events is enshrined in its rules.

In the letter, Tusk hammered home that point. “Before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past,” he wrote, with the past meaning citizens’ rights, financial obligations and Northern Ireland."

Great.
Now all he has to do after his letter is get the EU27 to agree with his stance.
Easy peasy.

gfplux

Further to Merkel's speech. Some background with the usual caveats.
This is from Politico.eu today's briefing.

EU leaders expressed mounting alarm Friday that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her team are in a dangerous state of denial about the consequences of leaving the bloc.

The worry over Britain’s unrealistic expectations was a main topic of discussion at background briefings all across Brussels’ European Quarter on the eve of an extraordinary European Council summit on Brexit.

Saturday’s summit is the first official gathering of the 27 EU leaders without Britain since May sent a letter formally triggering the Article 50 withdrawal process in late March.

Diplomats said the concerns were tied directly to a dinner that May hosted in London Wednesday night with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, and other senior officials.

Participants in the dinner were extraordinarily tight-lipped about it afterward, but an EU diplomat said Juncker called Chancellor Angela Merkel at 7:30 a.m. the day after the dinner. And in a speech to the German parliament on Thursday, Merkel sent a pointed wake-up call, saying the U.K. “cannot and will not have the same rights” as EU members and that Britain should have “no illusions.”

May, responding to Merkel’s comments, said that the 27 “were lining up to oppose” the U.K., and she noted, “We’ve seen that actually there will be times when these negotiations are going to get tough.”

One senior EU official said there was some relief that even hard-line Brexiteers were no longer suggesting that leaving the EU without a formal withdrawal agreement might be a good idea. Officials on both sides generally agree that would lead to chaos.

But EU officials, who in recent months have worked hard to build uncharacteristic unity among the 27 on Brexit, suggested it was not clear the U.K. had come to grips with the fact that EU businesses, particularly in the financial sector, were likely to suffer as a result of Brexit or that Britain has substantial financial obligations to the EU budget that must be fulfilled.

Those obligations are not a “Brexit bill” or an “exit fee,” one senior EU official said, but simply reflect joint budget commitments that the U.K. agreed as a full-fledged EU member.

“That issue will not go away,” the official said. “We’re telling them it will be a problem.”

One EU diplomat, asked how things went at the dinner in London, said: “Badly. Really badly.” The diplomat added: “That’s what I think we have … a possible scenario of great difficulty.”

Pressed on different views of the U.K.’s financial obligations, the diplomat said: “I’m not going to tell you their number, because you are going to laugh.”

The diplomat’s overall verdict on the Brits? “They are in a different galaxy

WengerIn

Rinoa wrote: »

Maybe the problem was caused by joining the Eu in the first place. Maybe we're not as smart or more likely we've been outmaneuvered by others bending EU rules (VW?), hidden subsidies?

No reason why we can't go back to making as many cars as we did half a century ago and the parts too.

The world's economy has changed fundamentally.

Take air bag inflators for example. There are basically two suppliers in the world: Takata and Autoliv, Neither has a factory in the UK.

So which is more likely under hard Brexit do you think:

1. The UK starts up a whole new airbag industry
2. The UK imports airbags for re-export and the car manufacturer pays taxes both ways
3. The car manufacturer thinks, "This is a clusterwhatsit, I'm off"
4. Something else (it would be helpful to understand what)

This is the bit of Brexit that was never discussed and not understood by voters and probably not by politicians either. I wouldn't have picked up on this 2 years ago but part of my job is looking at corporate supply chains.

It's a problem for you and I'm not sure there is a realistic agreement that resolves it.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Further to Merkel's speech. Some background with the usual caveats.
This is from Politico.eu today's briefing.

EU leaders expressed mounting alarm Friday that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her team are in a dangerous state of denial about the consequences of leaving the bloc.

The worry over Britain’s unrealistic expectations was a main topic of discussion at background briefings all across Brussels’ European Quarter on the eve of an extraordinary European Council summit on Brexit.

Saturday’s summit is the first official gathering of the 27 EU leaders without Britain since May sent a letter formally triggering the Article 50 withdrawal process in late March.

Diplomats said the concerns were tied directly to a dinner that May hosted in London Wednesday night with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, and other senior officials.

Participants in the dinner were extraordinarily tight-lipped about it afterward, but an EU diplomat said Juncker called Chancellor Angela Merkel at 7:30 a.m. the day after the dinner. And in a speech to the German parliament on Thursday, Merkel sent a pointed wake-up call, saying the U.K. “cannot and will not have the same rights” as EU members and that Britain should have “no illusions.”

May, responding to Merkel’s comments, said that the 27 “were lining up to oppose” the U.K., and she noted, “We’ve seen that actually there will be times when these negotiations are going to get tough.”

One senior EU official said there was some relief that even hard-line Brexiteers were no longer suggesting that leaving the EU without a formal withdrawal agreement might be a good idea. Officials on both sides generally agree that would lead to chaos.

But EU officials, who in recent months have worked hard to build uncharacteristic unity among the 27 on Brexit, suggested it was not clear the U.K. had come to grips with the fact that EU businesses, particularly in the financial sector, were likely to suffer as a result of Brexit or that Britain has substantial financial obligations to the EU budget that must be fulfilled.

Those obligations are not a “Brexit bill” or an “exit fee,” one senior EU official said, but simply reflect joint budget commitments that the U.K. agreed as a full-fledged EU member.

“That issue will not go away,” the official said. “We’re telling them it will be a problem.”

One EU diplomat, asked how things went at the dinner in London, said: “Badly. Really badly.” The diplomat added: “That’s what I think we have … a possible scenario of great difficulty.”

Pressed on different views of the U.K.’s financial obligations, the diplomat said: “I’m not going to tell you their number, because you are going to laugh.”

The diplomat’s overall verdict on the Brits? “They are in a different galaxy

It sounds like these "EU leaders" are worried IMHO.
Preparing the way for "no deal" and acknowledging at last the possibility of how their (seemingly) immovable stance will be accepted.
If they can even get the EU27 to accept the stance in the first place, of course.

Good.
Bring it on, as they say.

gfplux

First there was Barista Visa's.

https://www.localgov.co.uk/MPs-warn-of-Brexit-impact-on-adult-social-care-workforce/42990

The Health Committee has published a report on the effect of Brexit on health and social care, and warned the Department of Health that more emphasis needs to be placed on health issues in negotiations with Brussels.

Over 60,000 people from EU countries outside the UK work in the English NHS and around 90,000 in adult social care.

The committee warned that post-Brexit the country will continue to need, and benefit from the presence of EU staff in health and social care, and the impact of Brexit on the morale ‘is concerning and the uncertainty they face is unwelcome.’

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

And in a speech to the German parliament on Thursday, Merkel sent a pointed wake-up call, saying the U.K. “cannot and will not have the same rights” as EU members and that Britain should have “no illusions.”

Sounds reasonable. If you leave the Union, you lose all benefits of being part of the Union.

gfplux wrote: »

May, responding to Merkel’s comments, said that the 27 “were lining up to oppose” the U.K.

It's not "lining up to oppose", dear strong and stable leader. It's plain common sense.

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

First there was Barista Visa's.

We'll probably end up with

- Barista Visa's
- Financial Services Visa's
- Agricultural Visa's
- Plumbing Visa's
- Legal Services Visa's
- Bricklayer Visa's
- Information Technology Visa's
- Shopkeeper Visa's
- Shelf stacking Visa's
- Automotive Industry Visa's
- Tourism and Hospitality Visa's

...and a plethora of other Visa's.

With exactly no impact on immigration figures.

But toothless brexiteering Bob from Burnley and his ilk will slurp their Pot Noodles safe in the knowledge we've 'got our country back'.

Rinoa

WengerIn wrote: »

Take air bag inflators for example.

OK we'll import those, there will always be minor exceptions. But we can make engines, gear boxes and 95% of other parts which we currently import.

Rather than look for difficulties we should look on it as a fantastic opportunity for UK manufacturers.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

Participants in the dinner were extraordinarily tight-lipped about it afterward, but an EU diplomat said Juncker called Chancellor Angela Merkel at 7:30 a.m. the day after the dinner. And in a speech to the German parliament on Thursday, Merkel sent a pointed wake-up call, saying the U.K. “cannot and will not have the same rights” as EU members and that Britain should have “no illusions.”

Unbelievable. Why didn't he phone the head of any of the other 27 EU members. Are we negotiating with the EU or Angela Merkel.