If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

Brexit latest: GDP growth slumps to 0.3% in first quarter of 2017

mrginge

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit latest: GDP growth slumps to 0.3% in first quarter of 2017

Ah but we haven't left yet remember.

Oh no hang on. This is bad news so it must be down to Brexit.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit latest: GDP growth slumps to 0.3% in first quarter of 2017

How long have been discussing the increase in consumer debt? Brexit or Brexit reliance on the consumer to boost growth was never going to last forever. That's the inherent danger is being reactionary by following headlines. Rather than reading full reports. One becomes out of touch.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

How long have been discussing the increase in consumer debt? Brexit or Brexit reliance on the consumer to boost growth was never going to last forever.

Too true, Thruggy.
The so called 'brexit boom' looks like it was built entirely on record- high unsecured debt.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit latest: GDP growth slumps to 0.3% in first quarter of 2017

Ah yes, the ONS Preliminary Estimate.
Fine so long as you understand what the word "estimate" means.
Why don't you tell us all just how accurate these have proven to be, historically?


As Mr Ward, the chief economist at Henderson Global Investors says:

"My personal view is that the ONS shouldn’t publish this preliminary estimate. I don’t think they’ve got enough information, so I would be in favour of waiting at least another month,"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10015743/History-tells-us-that-GDP-estimates-are-unreliable.html


Also that preliminary report does not equate to what I posted yesterday; see also the next few posts following the link:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72465229&postcount=19150

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Ah yes, the ONS Preliminary Estimate.
Fine so long as you understand what the word "estimate" means.
Why don't you tell us all just how accurate these have proven to be, historically?

People have such short memories. From 2013. Precisely why politicians talk endlessly about GDP. By the time the real data is available they are all long gone.........

Pre-crash GDP figures show why the good times had to end

These new figures will only deepen the disquieting sense that what happened in 2008-09 didn't just come out of a clear blue sky: it was partly the inevitable result of an unsustainable boom, that was allowed to run out of control, even as the Bank of England and the Treasury believed they had secured the holy grail of sustainable, non-inflationary growth.

We can't undo the recklessness of those years; but perhaps the real underlying message from the ONS's latest calculations should be that even without the sub-prime crisis, Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers, it couldn't have gone on forever – and we must now get used to a very different world.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/jun/27/gdp-figures-economic-boom-and-bust

WengerIn

Rinoa wrote: »

Back in 1972 tariffs were much higher than they are now. And we manufactured over 2,000,000 cars. Then we joined the EEC (EU).

45 years of tariff free trading with the wonderful EU and we've never made as many since. Go figure.

The difference is that in 1972 the UK made the parts too. Now the parts are made across the world, most often in the EU.

This is the fundamental problem that needs to be resolved post Brexit and it simply isn't being considered publicly. It's simply not good enough to leave on WTO rules as the example shows.

This isn't confined to cars. Anything from ready meals to TVs is potentially or probably impacted.

System

Saw this and chuckled.

Thrugelmir

WengerIn wrote: »

This isn't confined to cars. Anything from ready meals to TVs is potentially or probably impacted.

The UK hasn't made TV's for some time. White goods manufacturers have likewise been made extinct.

Wenlock

"The UK economy grew by just 0.3% at the start of the year, the slowest growth rate since the first three months of 2016, according to official figures."

However:
Q1 2015 growth was 0.3%
Q1 2016 growth was 0.2%

So it seems this is normal growth for the period after Christmas.