If we vote for Brexit what happens

WengerIn

The EMA building is owned by the Canary Wharf Group which is in turn owned by a joint venture between Brookfield (US company) and the Qatar Investment Authority.

The big cost to the UK from all this is that instead of paying 1/28th of a medicines authority she will pay 28/28ths. I suppose the EU could be so staggeringly incompetent that 28/28ths of the new cost could be less than 1/28th of the old cost but it seems unlikely.

Still cheer up, no more Polish people picking strawberries.

cogito

CKhalvashi wrote: »

However leaving it 'as is' and allowing it to be used as a registered office with desk rental is a cheap proposition, and would hopefully get the majority of the rent paid (and actually, probably even a profit) for the next 20 years, whilst providing a business hub for those that want it.

Such arrangements are increasingly common in business, and I'm trying to look at what's sensible, rather than what will actually happen here.

There's no reason why a 'sales office' couldn't be opened up with just 1 member of local staff for the majority of small businesses wanting to maintain a UK presence from the EU. Helps both sides prosper IMO.

The lease might not allow for sub-letting.

WengerIn

cogito wrote: »

The lease might not allow for sub-letting.

Very rare for an office lease in a prime building not to allow sub letting especially a lease that runs for decades. I've never seen it.

WengerIn

To return to an old theme, the potential problems with supply chains can be very simply summed up if you consider the car industry. At present the single market has a 10% tariff on car imports which I understands also applies to car parts (we can redo the sums if someone finds a different figure for parts).

If the a UK car plant makes a car that sells for £10,000 then a quick Google suggests that £8,000 of that will be components, 60% imported, £1,500 will be labour and £500 will be profit.

If the UK puts on a reciprocal tariff, which would be normal, then the £4,800 imported components then cost £5,280. The £3,200 UK parts and £1,500 labour cost the same so the cost of production is now £9,980. For cars sold domestically (about half) the manufacturer can either put up prices or accept £20 per car in profit. For cars sold to the EU the manufacturer now faces a minimum extra £1050 in export tariffs and that's if he can persuade the EU that the car is only worth the cost of manufacture. To sell the car in the EU and maintain profit margins the car will have to sell for £11,550 (assuming the manufacturer maintains profit margins).

Ahha! you say, but the pound has fallen 15% and yes, that will mitigate the problem to an extent. The problem is that this increases the cost of the imported parts still further. Now the sum is:

Cost of imported parts = £5,520
Import tariff = £552
Cost of domestic parts = £3,200
Labour = £1,500
Profit = £575 (£500 plus the 15% drop in the value of the pound)
Subtotal = £11,347
Tariff on export to the EU = £1134.70
Total price of the car = £13,049.05 less 15% drop in the value of the pound = £11,091.70

This is how supply chains work in Europe now. Everyone has just assumed that the single market will be maintained. Companies importing parts and exporting back to Europe will have to move abroad as they are no longer competitive.

Better hope May can negotiate a tariff-free border.

mayonnaise

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Given the choice I buy British everytime, and prefer to buy local produce if I can, at the very least English.

I buy British if the price/quality is right.
I buy local produce if the price/quality is right.
I don't run around supermarkets while bearing infantile nationalistic grudges. Sorry to disappoint.

Rinoa

WengerIn wrote: »

To return to an old theme, the potential problems with supply chains can be very simply summed up if you consider the car industry. At present the single market has a 10% tariff on car imports which I understands also applies to car parts (we can redo the sums if someone finds a different figure for parts).

If the a UK car plant makes a car that sells for £10,000 then a quick Google suggests that £8,000 of that will be components, 60% imported, £1,500 will be labour and £500 will be profit.

If the UK puts on a reciprocal tariff, which would be normal, then the £4,800 imported components then cost £5,280. The £3,200 UK parts and £1,500 labour cost the same so the cost of production is now £9,980. For cars sold domestically (about half) the manufacturer can either put up prices or accept £20 per car in profit. For cars sold to the EU the manufacturer now faces a minimum extra £1050 in export tariffs and that's if he can persuade the EU that the car is only worth the cost of manufacture. To sell the car in the EU and maintain profit margins the car will have to sell for £11,550 (assuming the manufacturer maintains profit margins).

Ahha! you say, but the pound has fallen 15% and yes, that will mitigate the problem to an extent. The problem is that this increases the cost of the imported parts still further. Now the sum is:

Cost of imported parts = £5,520
Import tariff = £552
Cost of domestic parts = £3,200
Labour = £1,500
Profit = £575 (£500 plus the 15% drop in the value of the pound)
Subtotal = £11,347
Tariff on export to the EU = £1134.70
Total price of the car = £13,049.05 less 15% drop in the value of the pound = £11,091.70

This is how supply chains work in Europe now. Everyone has just assumed that the single market will be maintained. Companies importing parts and exporting back to Europe will have to move abroad as they are no longer competitive.

Better hope May can negotiate a tariff-free border.

Back in 1972 tariffs were much higher than they are now. And we manufactured over 2,000,000 cars. Then we joined the EEC (EU).

45 years of tariff free trading with the wonderful EU and we've never made as many since. Go figure.

StevieJ

Rinoa wrote: »

Back in 1972 tariffs were much higher than they are now. And we manufactured over 2,000,000 cars. Then we joined the EEC (EU).

45 years of tariff free trading with the wonderful EU and we've never made as many since. Go figure.

I thought the British car industry was a mess back then

A decade of decline. In 1972 UK car production peaked at 1.92m vehicles. British Leyland suffered a series of infamous financial and industrial relations crises, being effectively nationalised after a multi-billion pound government bail-out in 1975

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/8470355/The-fall-and-rise-of-the-British-car-industry-timeline.html

StevieJ

Inflation starting to bite?

The UK economy grew by just 0.3% at the start of the year, the slowest growth rate since the first three months of 2016, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics said that the slower pace in the January-to-March period was due mainly to the service sector, which also grew by 0.3% against 0.8% at the end of 2016.

In the last quarter of 2016, gross domestic product increased by 0.7%.

Friday's figure is a first estimate and could be revised in the coming months.

Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the data confirmed his group's own survey that businesses were starting to feel the pressure.

"It is increasingly likely that the slowdown in the first quarter is the start of a sustained period of more sluggish growth. Inflation is expected to continue to rise, increasing the squeeze on consumer spending power and firm's profit margins, pushing growth lower," he said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39743129

michaels

So I thought we should just agree to full rights for existing migrants in the UK rather than making it part of the negotiation but the Tories rejected this.

And perhaps they were right as Merkel links migrants rights to the financial deal:

Mrs Merkel said the immediate Brexit priorities to decide on were the rights of EU citizens in the UK and Britons in continental Europe and Britain's ongoing financial obligations.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

WengerIn wrote: »

The EMA building is owned by the Canary Wharf Group which is in turn owned by a joint venture between Brookfield (US company) and the Qatar Investment Authority.

The big cost to the UK from all this is that instead of paying 1/28th of a medicines authority she will pay 28/28ths. I suppose the EU could be so staggeringly incompetent that 28/28ths of the new cost could be less than 1/28th of the old cost but it seems unlikely.

Still cheer up, no more Polish people picking strawberries.

It seems that you are not aware of the UK's existing medicines licensing authority, the MHRA.
That is, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

These are funded by the Dept. of Health & employ over 1200 people - which suggests that (as is so often the case with the EU) the UK is already funding its own regulatory body as well as part-funding an EU equivalent.

So nice try but we already pay 28/28ths (for our own) PLUS over 1/28 since we know the UK contributes more than most of the other 27.