If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Australia and Canada urge UK to join ready made trade deals such as Nafta

Britain should look at joining trade blocs around the world as a quick way to boost free trade after Brexit, with top Australian and Canadian officials proposing the idea as an off-the-shelf way to boost the UK and world economies.

Joining Nafta - the group made up of Canada, Mexico and the US - would give British importers and exporters better access to those markets without a difficult negotiation, as long as the UK is happy to sign up to the deal that already exists. Some British MPs raised the idea last year, meaning it now has backers on both sides of the Atlantic.

Similarly, joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the deal which was due to be implemented between 12 countries including Australia and Japan until Donald Trump pulled the US out of the agreement, would cut the cost of trading with key nations across the world.

"In many ways it would make a lot of sense for the UK to join Nafta - you wouldn’t have to sit down and work out de novo what a trade agreement with the US would look like, you would start with something that is already there,” said John Weekes, formerly Canada’s chief negotiator at Nafta.

“In many ways it would make sense to think of docking initially with some of these existing agreements rather than starting from the beginning to negotiate a set of free trade agreements,” he told the Prosperity UK conference.

“It would make a lot of sense from a UK perspective to have one agreement with the North American countries rather than three agreements [one per country] especially when those countries have one agreement with each other.”

He was joined by Australia’s High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer, who said that this idea could be extended to the TPP, which is made up of the Nafta countries plus others around the Pacific, though the US has pulled out.

Since then countries including Japan and Australia have expressed an intention to continue without the US.

“I think the TPP will go ahead, I think Japan’s switch in position is very promising and Prime Minister Abe said he wants the TPP 11 [countries] to go ahead. Could the UK join that? We wouldn't have any objection,” said Mr Downer.

“If you want free trade with us, that is great. How do you achieve that, we are relaxed about that - we wouldn't have any objection in principle to the UK trying to come alongside on the TPP, it is a very high-quality agreement.”

Mr Weekes added: “Why not think of joining that? In many ways the TPP agreement is a modernisation of Nafta as it involves the three Nafta countries.”

They were speaking after a series of former trade negotiators said that they look forward to Britain leaving the EU and becoming an independent voice at the World Trade Organisation, arguing in favour of free trade.

The UK is usually the EU’s most pro-trade member, but is only represented at the EU level where policies are put forward which have to be agreed by all 28 EU members.

Veterans of trade talks hope that a separate UK voice can revitalise the WTO and give more impetus to moves to promote trade, particularly in services.

“The WTO has plateaued because it hasn't got the kind of leadership and innovative thinking that will take it to the next level,” said Crawford Falconer, a professor and the former ambassador to the WTO for New Zealand. "The UK now has a unique opportunity, within the WTO, to provide economic leadership for the world trade agenda - and my God, doesn’t the world need that right now.

“Many of the leading economies in the world has lost the plot. An economy like the UK is going to be an independent and powerful voice for reform and change in the global economy, and that is going to be a massively refreshing political voice in Geneva [at the WTO’s headquarters].”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/26/australia-canada-urge-uk-join-ready-made-trade-deals-nafta/

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

A lady who speaks her mind.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid down a tough line for Brexit talks with the U.K., reminding Britain it can’t expect preferential treatment as she warned that some officials in London were harboring “illusions.”
"Addressing the German parliament before the remaining 27 European Union leaders meet on Saturday to discuss Britain’s exit, Merkel said the bloc will put its interests first and that talks on departure terms must precede the crafting of a new trade relationship. The EU is heading into the “very complex” negotiations with a strong sense of unity, she said."
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/merkel-warns-against-u-k-illusions-in-hard-line-brexit-speech?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business

Having taken part in hundreds of negotiations I don't recall ever putting the interests of the other side first.

Nothing new in her stance from my recollection.
In fact I remember similar rhetoric from her when Cameron was galavanting around the EU pre the referendum last year.
I know you reside in a part of Northern Europe's German speaking sphere of influence and consequently you hang on ole Frau Merkels every word, but your country of birth still has something about itself GP.
A deal will be done, even the EU Trade commissioner said today a post Brexit free trade deal will happen "for sure". Away with your Luxembourger Counsel of despair.

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

Don't forget she's in election mode....

Also, that might play well with Germans, however, if I'm being honest, I'm getting sick of the threats - I've stopped buying European goods (unless I have no choice) - don't forget I voted Remain. If you voted Leave you must be truly sick of them.

It just reveals who really drives the EU on the big issues.

If this seems a difficult whodunnit, here are some clues :- it's not Juncker and Tusk and the people who actually work for the EU body; it's not even their negotiators; it's certainly not the small fry countries like Ireland, or the poor ones like Greece and Romania.

It's Germany and her politicians.

They might as well disband the EU and add a few hundred extra officials into the German ministries. It'd do the same job.

setmefree2

Same as above

London: The UK is being urged to join the multilateral trade agreements being abandoned by US President Donald Trump and Australia's High Commissioner in London, Alexander Downer says Australia would have no objection to Britain joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

Leading figures on global trade addressing the 2017 Prosperity conference in Westminster, said the UK should focus on joining existing trade agreements when Britain leaves the EU, expected by March 31, 2019.

The minister for Brexit David Davis told the conference the government is seeking "to avoid any cliff edges," a view he said was shared by a number of EU nations.

He said Britain would pursue an "ambitious" free trade agreement with the EU of "unprecedented scope."

"Britain's departure from the EU should not be viewed through a protectionist lens," he said.

Trade experts cautioned Mr Davis and his colleagues against striking a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU that would reduce its ability to negotiate new agreements with other countries like the United States and Australia.

John Weekes was Canada's chief negotiator on NAFTA and said he would advise Britain's Trade Secretary Liam Fox to step into the United States' place so the UK wouldn't have to start new trade agreements from scratch.

"It would make a lot of sense for the UK to join the NAFTA. There is an accession clause in NAFTA," he said.

Mr Weekes said this should also apply to the TPP, which despite the US pulling out, remains alive due to a significant shift from Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe, who is now signalling the agreement can stay alive without the US.

"Although its called the Trans-Pacific Partnership why not think of from a UK perspective of joining that?"

"In many ways the TPP agreement is already a modernisation of the NAFTA because it involves the three NAFTA countries and it's kind of an update of the NAFTA," he said.

The TPP without the US involves Australia, China, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

Australia and New Zealand fought hard to keep the TPP alive after President Trump withdrew the United States with prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, foreign minister Julie Bishop and trade minister Steve Ciobo remaining deeply engaged with Japan, which initially said the TPP was dead without the US.

Australia's High Commissioner to Britain Alexander Downer said Australia would welcome the UK into the TPP. "I think the TPP will go ahead myself," the former foreign minister said, citing Japan's changed position.

"The TPP is 40 per cent of global GDP if you include the US and even if you don't its still a big part of the global GDP, could the UK join that? We wouldn't have any objection," he said.

"Setting up new structures would be a laborious way to start," he said.

"I think better to start with bilateral agreements and have a look if there are other plural-lateral agreements you might like to think of joining."

Britain is also being warned against staying too close to the EU once it leaves as it would risk its ability to strike new trade deals. Mr Weekes said if Britain enshrined EU rules on quarantine and agricultural rules it would put other potential trade deals at risk.

He urged the UK to conduct informal talks with the countries it wants to strike trade deals with while it negotiates to leave the EU.

Mr Downer backed this and warned Britain against copying the EU's tendency to try and mandate unrelated issues like environmental and labour standards into trade deals."

"If you want to build all those things into trade agreements, you just won't make many trade agreements very fast," he said. "You will find it hugely difficult."

Mr Downer said Australia's approach to trade is for it to be as free as possible because the cheapest possible imports are good for consumers.

But the former New Zealand trade minister Lockwood Smith told the conference that "global trade has been in trouble since the financial crisis."

He urged the UK to pick up the baton in advocating for freer trade.

"The world needs you right now, whatever you do, don't waste this moment," he said.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/join-nafta-and-tpp-after-brexit-britain-urged-20170426-gvt9m7.html

setmefree2

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says some British people have “illusions” about discussing the UK’s future ties with the EU at the same time as nailing down the UK’s Brexit terms.

The future relationship can only be discussed once the exit issues – such as UK payments to the EU budget – are resolved, she told German MPs.

On the sequence of the Brexit talks, she said “some people in the UK still have some illusions on that score”.

“That would be just a waste of time.”

http://starrfmonline.com/2017/04/27/brexit-chancellor-merkel-warns-uk-on-scope-of-talks-with-eu/

Some politicians seem to have "illusions" that the EU is the only game in town.....

setmefree2

Rinoa wrote: »

Yes. It's amazing how often EU members keep reminding each other of just how united they all are.

Funny you should mention that - the headline in today's

EU 'completely united' ahead of Brexit talks in Luxembourg

http://www.wort.lu/en/luxembourg/kirchberg-eu-completely-united-ahead-of-brexit-talks-in-luxembourg-5901efdda5e74263e13bd6b5

"It seems that at the moment we are completely united on everything," Maltese deputy prime minister Louis Grech, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, told reporters at the meeting in Luxembourg when asked if there were any divisions.

setmefree2

Pret A Manger targets British workers ahead of Brexit

https://www.ft.com/content/5cfd249c-2b12-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

The effort to tap “more UK-oriented labour pools” will be made via social media and through government-run job centres.

OMG :eek: they want to give jobs to the UK unemployed - what is the world coming to....

kabayiri

I find this EU stance interesting, the one where they effectively define all the exit terms, including financial redress, before any trade talks.

Suppose this were the approach.

On day 1 of post-Brexit the negotiations on trade commence.

The trade vacuum would clearly hurt, both here and amongst member states.

But...it would be unrealistic to imagine the pain to be evenly shared.

Just how long would it be before one of the weaker states, like Ireland, breaks from this "unified stance" they talk about?

If May is smart, she will target weaker links where she can.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

In other news ......... British new housing starts indicator at a ten-year high:

Registrations with the National House-Building Council (NHBC) - payments by homebuilders for insurance on projects before construction starts - rose 17 percent compared with the first three months of 2017 to 42,470.
That marked the strongest calendar quarter since 2007.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-property-idUKKBN17S368?il=0

Ties in nicely with both Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon being upbeat about their trade:

Two of Britain's biggest housebuilders on Thursday expressed confidence for 2017, saying that strong demand from first-time buyers and good mortgage availability had propped up sales growth.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-housebuilders-outlook-idUKKBN17T0T7?il=0

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Also today, British retail sales expand:

British retailers reported the biggest increase in sales volumes since mid-2015 during April, according to an industry survey on Thursday that may help to allay fears of a worsening consumer-led slowdown.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKBN17T1C2?il=0