If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

French election hopeful Macron grumbles at Germany:

“Germany benefits from the imbalances within the euro zone and achieves very high trade surpluses,” centrist candidate Macron said in an interview published Monday with Germany’s Funke Mediengruppe and France’s Ouest-France newspaper. “Those aren’t a good thing either for Germany or for the economy of the euro zone. There should be a rebalancing.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-16/france-s-macron-says-german-trade-surplus-harmful-to-eu-economy

A_Medium_Size_Jock

While rescuers in the Med grumble at the EU, accusing them of letting migrants drown:

But even as the rescue vessels race against time to save lives, another battle is brewing with accusations from the European Union's border control agency Frontex against nongovernmental organizations like Doctors Without Borders and the Mobile Offshore Aid Station, or MOAS, that run so-called charity rescue ships. Frontex says the charity rescue vessels create a pull factor for migrants and traffickers; the NGOs say they are out there in the absence of an EU strategy to save lives at sea and a lack of initiative to provide a safe corridor option for migration and asylum.
On Sunday evening in Italy, the Italian Coast Guard estimated the number of those rescued since Friday was approaching 7,000, though that number will surely grow as a steady stream of rubber dinghies and rickety wooden fishing vessels were still being spotted off the coast of Libya. At least 20 cadavers, including that of an 8-year-old boy recovered during rescue operations, were also brought to Sicily and the Italian mainland with the survivors.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/16/europe/migrant-refugee-crisis-europe/

A_Medium_Size_Jock

So, much continues to rumble on as before in Euroland with major difficulties such as migration remaining unresolved.
How will EU relationships with Turkey - already low - progress following Turkey's close-call vote?

The EU sent a delegation of 20 impartial observers to ensure the referendum complied with European standards.
One of the delegates, Stefan Schennach, joined Turkish opposition in expressing serious concerns about the outcome, which he condemned as “unfair and unfree”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/eu-observer-turkey-condemns-referendum-result-president-erdogan-opposition-parties-demand-recount-a7686876.html

Remember that in the region of 2.5 million Syrian refugees are in Turkey following a Turkish/EU agreement; a few times already Turkey has vocalized threats to this agreement and said it will open land passage towards Europe for them.

gfplux

More analysis of EU immigrants in Britain.

https://infacts.org/migration-stats-bust-myths-skills-welfare/

"Which countries people come from also affects where they work. Finance and business has the highest proportion of nationals from “old” EU countries (EU14). Nationals from the Eastern European states which joined the EU in 2004 (EU8) represent approximately 8% of workers in manufacturing. Meanwhile, the highest proportion of Romanians and Bulgarians (EU2) work in construction."

Don't worry Brexiters, many of those from EU14 are already considering leaving (or in a few cases have left) given the uncertainty over their future and the rest EU8 and EU2 wonder if they are really wanted or will not qualify for the possible "special" work visa's being discussed in the media.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

More analysis of EU immigrants in Britain.

https://infacts.org/migration-stats-bust-myths-skills-welfare/

"Which countries people come from also affects where they work. Finance and business has the highest proportion of nationals from “old” EU countries (EU14). Nationals from the Eastern European states which joined the EU in 2004 (EU8) represent approximately 8% of workers in manufacturing. Meanwhile, the highest proportion of Romanians and Bulgarians (EU2) work in construction."

Don't worry Brexiters, many of those from EU14 are already considering leaving (or in a few cases have left) given the uncertainty over their future and the rest EU8 and EU2 wonder if they are really wanted or will not qualify for the possible "special" work visa's being discussed in the media.

This is like groundhog day - another project fear anti-UK post from an EU resident.
Quelle surprise.

If you lived here (as I do) you would see that not so many are desperate to flee as you imagine from your EU hidey-hole.

Why do you think they came to the UK in the first place?
Do you think they would leave and abandon what they are here for (money) before there is any evidence that they need to go?
Some may well leave.
Most will not unless they have to.

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You haven't lived here long enough to fully understand the political landscape. Nor the history that accompanies how people think. 13 years of stewardship under a Chancellor (who then became PM) who made some fundamentally bad decisions. New Labour promised much. As recent events have shown Labour was actually more divided than the Tories.

All true but do not underrate the impact on an election of 10 years of austerity (well 9 years because there is bound to a year of boom (spun as a benefit of Brexit, or the success of austerity, or something). Incidentally the previous 18 years of Conservative Government were also characterised by fundamentally bad decisions (remember the ERM and the poll tax )

The_Last_Username

gfplux wrote: »

Don't worry Brexiters, many of those from EU14 are already considering leaving (or in a few cases have left) given the uncertainty over their future and the rest EU8 and EU2 wonder if they are really wanted or will not qualify for the possible "special" work visa's being discussed in the media.

According to whom are these "considering leaving"?
UK meeja, perchance?

Also, are they considering leaving more than they usually do; IME these economic migrants are often fickle and will go where the greatest earning opportunity is at the time.
(I have considerable experience in this area, both past and current.)

Here in Lincolnshire there is little evidence of any leaving, other than media portrayal which certainly bears no relation to this area.
Not just in regards to agriculture, either.


Now as has already been asked of you and since Project Fear is now known not to work, rather than being negative towards us here in the UK why not instead attempt to convince us of the success of EU economic policy?

BobQ

Mortgagefreeman wrote: »

OK something not so new.

I'm not going to quote the whole article, but how about this from Pantheon Macroeconomics, just after the referendum.



http://uk.businessinsider.com/pantheon-macroeconomics-research-brexit-is-ruining-the-british-economy-2016-8

:rotfl:

Well clearly the predictions of the Pro-remain economists have not worked out exacly as they predicted (or may do so over a different timescale). But what we ought to worry about is the predictions of pro Brexit economists. I think I recall Prof Patrick Minford arguing that UK manaufacturing would be destroyed but that this did not matter as we would become even more dependent on services?

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

All true but do not underrate the impact on an election of 10 years of austerity

Easy to throw stones. Finding a creditable alternative policy is the issue. No one likes austerity. However sometimes needs must.

BobQ

Private_Church wrote: »

But you haven't lived here long enough to understand the historic mistrust of the EU by the British public. Sure the Tories have made some mistakes since 2010 but you seem to miss the elephant in the room with regards to Labour. In 1997 -2010. When Labour gained power there was a palpable sense of hope from the working class and many middle class voters. Sadly Labour failed to deliver a fair society by buying votes ,putting benefits above working and contributing ....................

By 2010 the public had totally lost trust in Labour, the 1 party who we relied on to keep the Conservative party in check

---

.

I have lived here much longer that you.

I think you have misunderstood the record of the Labour years. Labour did a great deal to create a fair society (eg surestart) and improved NHS and education. But the personal failiure of Blair (on Iraq), the election of an uncharismatic leader (Brown) and the onset of the world financial crisis enabled the Tories and the media to present Labour as having failed. In short the Tories got lucky that people likeyou believed them.

Unlike you I've lived here all of my 48yrs and for decades we have been told "Now is not the right time to have a referendum on EU membership" so even the political elite never said we shouldn't have the vote. That may well have been lip service but if you were Prime Minister you would never allow us the vote and yet you claim to be a Lib Dem. Not sure how you can claim to be when you clearly aren't. Or do you think only the educated should be allowed to vote?.

I have never believed a complex issue like the EU should be resolved by a referendum. Its nothing to do with "only the educated" being allowed to vote. The fact is that everyone can express a view based on their gut feeling about an issue, but few have the time or inclination in their busy lives to understand all the issues. Yes some people are also incapable of understanding the issues. For those reasons I would rather rely on elected politicians to decide based on the advice of experts.

But we had one and now we have to abide by the result and all its consequences. You clearly wanted one and got one. But tell me how many people in the electorate fully understood the implications either way. I had a strong view to remain, but it was never more than 60/40, and while I spent hours reading into the issue I cannot claim to have understand all the implications. Others I know hardly thought about it. Either way we will never know if we made the right decision as a nation.

So my view is that decisions on this sort of complex issue should be left to our elected representatives.

I don't think the Tories spend enough on education or the infrastructure...The NHS is dying, even if you pumped in £50 billion a year on top of existing funding it will still fail. The free at the point of need model doesn't work in todays global market and the fact that we are an ageing population and expect far too much from the NHS.......... Having said all of that if you ask me if I wanted to live under a Labour or Lib Dem Govt again I would happily stick with this one.:)

The marketing has worked well for them, you do not like what they are doing but you are persuaded they are best. The problem is there is no credible opposition and until that changes choice does not exist so we naturally support the incumbent as we have no yardstick to judge them against.