If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

melanzana wrote: »

So much angst and costly negotiations for what?

Bet there will be a deal + free movement included as a deal breaker. Norway, Switzerland and Iceland will not be happy otherwise!

No it won't.

prosaver

cant understand the nervous off leaving..
grow some

CKhalvashi

mrginge wrote: »

No it won't.

Who said?

I'll go further and say I predict the house of cards will start falling in the UK just before the GE, Tories will be out, there will be a new gov for the remainder of the transition deal and a fresh EEA agreement will be drawn.

Leavers get their will to leave the EU recognised, Remainers get to stay in the single market, everyone wins :beer:

BobQ

Herzlos wrote: »

What obligation will the EU be failing on by moving headquarters for EU agencies from one EU city that's about to leave, to another EU city that isn't?

Though I do wonder what we'll find to replace all these jobs we're handing over to the mainland.

Well you could argue that the EU has an obligation to spread its agencies among its members on a fair basis. That said I expect the agencies will formally move by agreement at a date near the date we leave.

Most of the EU agencies do not undertake a national function for EU members, they just address the pan EU issues. The problem for the UK will be that in some areas (the EMA being one) the existence of the agency helps to prevent unfair competition. So the EMA tries to ensure that if one nation approves a medicine they all approve them. Our withdrawal from it may lead to UK pharmaceutical producers being treated unfairly in selling to the EU. Equally we may find the manufacturers give the UK less priority.

For example

Lives will be lost if the UK sets up its own medicines regulator after Brexit and cuts ties with the European body currently responsible for ensuring drugs are safe, a leading cancer specialist has warned.
Professor Paul Workman, president of The Institute of Cancer Research, said pharmaceutical companies would naturally seek regulatory approval for new drugs in the biggest markets first, potentially putting the UK behind the European Union, United States and Japan.
That could mean a delay of two years in new drug breakthroughs becoming available to British patients, he said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/brexit-latest-news-people-die-uk-only-drug-regulator-ema-leave-cancer-specialist-paul-workman-a7573851.html

No idea if this is true but it does demonstrate some of the fine detail that needs to be resolved.

So the loss of the agency jobs is probably less of a concern than the long term effects.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Though I do wonder what we'll find to replace all these jobs we're handing over to the mainland.

The expertise and knowledge remains in the UK though. Moving organisations isn't as simple as it sounds.

mrginge

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Who said?

I'll go further and say I predict the house of cards will start falling in the UK just before the GE, Tories will be out, there will be a new gov for the remainder of the transition deal and a fresh EEA agreement will be drawn.

Leavers get their will to leave the EU recognised, Remainers get to stay in the single market, everyone wins :beer:

oh god it's the last remaining lib dem activist back to tell us how the great Tim is going to rise up and save us all.

What's happened to the second referendum idea?
Given that up as a bad job have we since hardly anybody paid the slightest attention to it and those that did think it's the most stupid idea ever proposed.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Who said?

I'll go further and say I predict the house of cards will start falling in the UK just before the GE, Tories will be out, there will be a new gov for the remainder of the transition deal and a fresh EEA agreement will be drawn.

Leavers get their will to leave the EU recognised, Remainers get to stay in the single market, everyone wins :beer:

The UK will have left by the next GE.

PS. Where's the opposition at the moment. UK politics is in a very poor place. Even Corbyn is a leaver. So there's no solace in a Labour party victory either.

melanzana

Take note.

UK will exit but will be like Norway, Switzerland and Iceland.

All the benefits of EU but we will still maintain free movement. Has to be for access to the Free Market.

Otherwise it will be just a joke. But those in power won't care will they? They will just exit stage left and draw their pensions. Nice.

mrginge

melanzana wrote: »

Take note.

UK will exit but will be like Norway, Switzerland and Iceland.

All the benefits of EU but we will still maintain free movement. Has to be for access to the Free Market.

Otherwise it will be just a joke. But those in power won't care will they? They will just exit stage left and draw their pensions. Nice.

Honestly you'd think after all this time people would understand the difference between membership and access.

But I guess not.

CKhalvashi

BobQ wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/brexit-latest-news-people-die-uk-only-drug-regulator-ema-leave-cancer-specialist-paul-workman-a7573851.html

No idea if this is true but it does demonstrate some of the fine detail that needs to be resolved.

So the loss of the agency jobs is probably less of a concern than the long term effects.

This is a difficult one.

I've heard it argued that the current system for clinical trials is risking lives, now we're being told that leaving that same system will risk lives.

It's not something I know enough about to comment on.

mrginge wrote: »

oh god it's the last remaining lib dem activist back to tell us how the great Tim is going to rise up and save us all.

What's happened to the second referendum idea?
Given that up as a bad job have we since hardly anybody paid the slightest attention to it and those that did think it's the most stupid idea ever proposed.

I've been through this, I'm not going through it again.

There was no plan for a second referendum in the way that you're inferring, there was a plan, however, to ask voters what sort of Brexit is being asked for, which to the best of my knowledge noone has done.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK will have left by the next GE.

Hence the wording of my original post.

PS. Where's the opposition at the moment. UK politics is in a very poor place. Even Corbyn is a leaver. So there's no solace in a Labour party victory either.

Completely agree with this. Corbyn is less use than a flammable fireguard at the moment.

Can I just point out though that this is the main reason the Conservatives are showing as being so popular. I'm still not so sure they'd do as well as a national swingometer would suggest, as there are likely to be concentrations of new votes going into varying places rather than an even uniform-ish swing in any particular area, and 2 polls (both April 11-13) have shown a Con majority of anywhere between 30 and 120 if an election were to be held tomorrow using a uniform swing.

The actual result of an election could be a lot wider than this, and I'd take a bet that no party would have a majority at all with a number of seats changing hands in varying areas between varying parties.

(This isn't specifically aimed at Thrugelmir)

There are very interesting times ahead IMO. I've given my views already, I've explained why, so instead of being told I'm wrong, would someone like to give a reasonable explanation as to why they think that? Differing viewpoints actually make a lot of difference when discussing situations like this.

I have to say I agree with Melanzana that I think the way that he/she sees things being proceeded with are the best, at least in the interim.