If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

gfplux wrote: »

This was expected but the timing has speeded up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/britain-set-to-lose-eu-crown-jewels?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency employ about 1,000 people, many of them British, and provide a hub for businesses in the UK. It is understood that the EU’s chief negotiator hopes the agencies will know their new locations by June, although the process may take longer. Cities such as Frankfurt, Milan, Amsterdam and Paris are competing to take the agencies, which are regarded as among the EU’s crown jewels.

Not exactly a surprise given the UK's approach to this. We cannot expect EU agencies to continue to be based in the UK.

I think a thousand jobs will be a drop in the ocean when compared to all the jobs the Government expects to create replicating the work of the agencies in the UK.

How will UK industry get its drugs approved for use in the EU? Obviously we will need the approval of the same EU agency but will have to get approval to use them in the UK from a new UK agency?

Moby

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

17m people didn't suddenly turn racist or xenophobic. And no large group has asked for deportations. These appear to be stories from those opposed to leave voters.

The "rise" in hate crime could be down to many things it doesn't mean more people decided it was ok to be that way at all. You cannot draw those conclusions. Not can you panic at a 40% figure if that's true.

40% of 10 is 4.

40% of 1,000,000 is 400,000.

The actual numbers matter.

These stories are perpetuated by people who want to portray the vote to leave as in league with people who hold commonly unacceptable views, presumably to infer that wanting to leave the EU is also an unacceptable view to hold. It's not, and we are not racist or xenophobic.

No......lets call a spade a spade. Brexit has given oxygen to hate crime. Brexit has bolstered the self confidence of the xenephobic bigot. The main reason that we voted to leave the EU was because of the issue of immigration; people felt threatened by the big world out there and wanted to close in on themselves and live in a community which consisted of other people who looked like them. The so called positive reasons for voting Brexit eg free trade, getting control of sovereignty were there but were window dressing in comparison. This explains the strange phenomenon that areas with the least immigration were most likely to vote Brexit.

Arklight

tracey3596 wrote: »

From what I have been reading I suggest you read again.
You appear to have misunderstood.


Also no one denies that the future may indeed not be so rosy but that currently numbers are reasonably stable (and indeed are increasing) - as the HESA link very clearly shows.
Read the tables.

And is there a reason for you extremely poor attitude?
Other than being proven wrong yet again?

Nice try but the students who came in in September were predominantly from UCAS offers made in March. Three months before the Brexit vote.

The plateau in numbers is due to a rise in Chinese students offsetting falls in most other markets.

UCAS applications are down by 11% across the sector this year and no amount of sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting "Lalalala" will change that.

In fact that strategy is getting pretty old now from Brexiteers.

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

No......lets call a spade a spade. Brexit has given oxygen to hate crime. Brexit has bolstered the self confidence of the xenephobic bigot. The main reason that we voted to leave the EU was because of the issue of immigration; people felt threatened by the big world out there and wanted to close in on themselves and live in a community which consisted of other people who looked like them. The so called positive reasons for voting Brexit eg free trade, getting control of sovereignty were there but were window dressing in comparison. This explains the strange phenomenon that areas with the least immigration were most likely to vote Brexit.

I think even the most rabid Brexiteer would struggle to deny the substantial spike in hate crime we saw in and around our vote to leave the EU. However I recall recently a report saying that despite that spike, hate crimes had returned to more normal and 'acceptable' levels. To deny that obviously fits in with your anti-Brexit narrative, but I don't sense that we've turned into a nation of "xenophobic bigots" or even that they've gained undue "confidence" as a result of Brexit.
If your looking for a similar sized country that perhaps is embracing xenophobic bigotry, I suggest you take a trip across the channel.

davomcdave

Tromking wrote: »

I think even the most rabid Brexiteer would struggle to deny the substantial spike in hate crime we saw in and around our vote to leave the EU. However I recall recently a report saying that despite that spike, hate crimes had returned to more normal and 'acceptable' levels. To deny that obviously fits in with your anti-Brexit narrative, but I don't sense that we've turned into a nation of "xenophobic bigots" or even that they've gained undue "confidence" as a result of Brexit.
If your looking for a similar sized country that perhaps is embracing xenophobic bigotry, I suggest you take a trip across the channel.

The latest ONS data for hate crimes was published back in October:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/559319/hate-crime-1516-hosb1116.pdf

and it has an annex specifically covering the increase in hate crimes post-EU referendum. Overall the number of hate crimes between 2015 and 2016 reporting periods rose by 19%.

As you can see on pages 18-19 of the report, compared to the start of 2016 hate crimes roughly doubled in the direct aftermath of the referendum before falling back to what appears to be a level elevated from prior to the referendum by about 20% or so.

The bigger problem is the massive increase in aggravated, i.e. more serious, offences. They have increased by 150% since prior to the referendum being called and as you can see from the admittedly noisy daily data (p20) there is a clear spike in aggravated offences in the days immediately after the referendum.

From the data, and there is regional force data that is more up-to-date that you can find with a quick Google, it looks to me like there was a big spike in offences which has subsided to a level higher than previously. Talking heads seem to blame it on racists feeling vindicated in their beliefs by the Brexit vote and so more likely to abuse someone or beat them up than prior to the referendum.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Did she say anything new?

I think she just repeated what she may have said before but certainly what many others have said and will keep on saying. Just because a truth is repeated does not make it any the less the truth. Just like repeating lies and distortions makes them no less lies and distortions.

Let me quote her again.
"“There will be a lot of your readers who – when they saw Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, and all these people standing outside that bus saying £350m a week extra for the NHS – couldn’t believe senior politicians would stand in front of it unless it was the truth,” she tells the Yorkshire Post."

gfplux

Moby wrote: »

No......lets call a spade a spade. Brexit has given oxygen to hate crime. Brexit has bolstered the self confidence of the xenephobic bigot. The main reason that we voted to leave the EU was because of the issue of immigration; people felt threatened by the big world out there and wanted to close in on themselves and live in a community which consisted of other people who looked like them. The so called positive reasons for voting Brexit eg free trade, getting control of sovereignty were there but were window dressing in comparison. This explains the strange phenomenon that areas with the least immigration were most likely to vote Brexit.

Just like the distortion and spin put on FACTS by two red tops as illustrated here.

https://tabloidcorrections.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/the-mail-and-the-express-guilty-of-twisting-migration-data-yet-again/?utm_content=bufferba5ff&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"However, the Mail and the Express rarely miss an opportunity to seize on academic or government figures relating to migration and twist them to try and portray migrants in a negative light.

The effort by the Daily Mail this time around was particularly remarkable. It went with the headline ONE IN SEVEN EU NATIONALS OF WORKING AGE IN THE UK IS UNEMPLOYED OR ‘INACTIVE’ – NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO A CITY THE SIZE OF BRISTOL.

Aside from being yet another ridiculously long headline (which the paper specialises in) that doesn’t even focus on the main study findings, it’s a peculiar thing to single out as this figure is LOWER than the UK average as a whole.

15% of working-age EU citizens in the UK are unemployed or inactive (1 in 7) compared to 21% of UK citizens (1 in 5).

So EU nationals are LESS likely to be out of work.

Why, then, would the Mail want to frame its story around unemployment figures of this particular group? Could the paper be trying to encourage its readers to view EU migrants as a burden on the state at a time when the subject of EU migrants in the UK is one of the most politically charged of them all? Even though the figures the paper is basing its report on state the opposite? Would the paper stoop that low?"

Any hate crime is being encouraged by this miss reporting. Brexiters perhaps will find that PART of their immigration problem will be solved by well educated and skilled immigrants from the EU will in due course return home or move to another EU Country to live and work. In addition any EU students thinking of studying in Britain will certainly be reconsidering that decision.
However their places at Uni will probably be replaced by students from the Far East paying higher fees and also renting (or buying) accomadation which will do nothing to reduce the heat in the property market.

As an immigrant myself the attitude to "foreigners" in Britain is a worry and does NOT enhance the reputation of Britain in the rest of the EU.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

I think she just repeated what she may have said before but certainly what many others have said and will keep on saying. Just because a truth is repeated does not make it any the less the truth. Just like repeating lies and distortions makes them no less lies and distortions.

Let me quote her again.
"“There will be a lot of your readers who – when they saw Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, and all these people standing outside that bus saying £350m a week extra for the NHS – couldn’t believe senior politicians would stand in front of it unless it was the truth,” she tells the Yorkshire Post."

You can repeat it as often as you wish, and leavers could repeat numerous project fear lies claiming we would now be in recession with soaring unemployment.

But it's all been done to death. Try posting something new.

Moby

gfplux wrote: »

Just like the distortion and spin put on FACTS by two red tops as illustrated here.

https://tabloidcorrections.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/the-mail-and-the-express-guilty-of-twisting-migration-data-yet-again/?utm_content=bufferba5ff&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"However, the Mail and the Express rarely miss an opportunity to seize on academic or government figures relating to migration and twist them to try and portray migrants in a negative light.

The effort by the Daily Mail this time around was particularly remarkable. It went with the headline ONE IN SEVEN EU NATIONALS OF WORKING AGE IN THE UK IS UNEMPLOYED OR ‘INACTIVE’ – NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO A CITY THE SIZE OF BRISTOL.

Aside from being yet another ridiculously long headline (which the paper specialises in) that doesn’t even focus on the main study findings, it’s a peculiar thing to single out as this figure is LOWER than the UK average as a whole.

15% of working-age EU citizens in the UK are unemployed or inactive (1 in 7) compared to 21% of UK citizens (1 in 5).

So EU nationals are LESS likely to be out of work.

Why, then, would the Mail want to frame its story around unemployment figures of this particular group? Could the paper be trying to encourage its readers to view EU migrants as a burden on the state at a time when the subject of EU migrants in the UK is one of the most politically charged of them all? Even though the figures the paper is basing its report on state the opposite? Would the paper stoop that low?"

Any hate crime is being encouraged by this miss reporting. Brexiters perhaps will find that PART of their immigration problem will be solved by well educated and skilled immigrants from the EU will in due course return home or move to another EU Country to live and work. In addition any EU students thinking of studying in Britain will certainly be reconsidering that decision.
However their places at Uni will probably be replaced by students from the Far East paying higher fees and also renting (or buying) accomadation which will do nothing to reduce the heat in the property market.

As an immigrant myself the attitude to "foreigners" in Britain is a worry and does NOT enhance the reputation of Britain in the rest of the EU.

http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-areas-with-low-immigration-voted-mainly-for-brexit-62138

High proportions of Leave votes were observed in districts with an older age profile, lower proportions of residents educated to the equivalent of a degree, lower median earnings and lower proportions employed in highly skilled occupations.

It's not overt racism.....it's almost like an extreme social conservatism and people like Farage poured fuel on it by conflating a refugee problem with immigration.................

Deprivation by itself did not explain the Leave vote, as the results in London show. It was where those socio-economic characteristics occurred in places with a predominantly white British population, that the Leave vote was strongest. So where migrants were not present, it appears they were held partly to blame for the all-too-real, but much deeper-seated, economic difficulties experienced by locals.

The question is how is a Govmt struggling with the loss of trade Brexit will result in while under the cosh of huge debt satisfy the wishes of their constituency? Trump is already disappointing the social conservatives in America by showing he can't be trusted by putting 'America First'. He can see he is more popular when America is interventionist.......! He is shifting ground fast now!
May doesn't really want a hard brexit but as I've said many times she is being held hostage by the idealogues. How is she going to bridge the gap between these idealogues with remainers, soft brexiteers and the SNP etc. An Easter message calling for unity is not going to do it is it. She is damm lucky she has Corbyn as an opposition leader. The opposition is totally divided.....that is what gives her strength....but the problem with that is she will be in power for the foreseeable future but without any genuine consent from huge swathes of the country.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

No......lets call a spade a spade. Brexit has given oxygen to hate crime. Brexit has bolstered the self confidence of the xenephobic bigot. The main reason that we voted to leave the EU was because of the issue of immigration; people felt threatened by the big world out there and wanted to close in on themselves and live in a community which consisted of other people who looked like them. The so called positive reasons for voting Brexit eg free trade, getting control of sovereignty were there but were window dressing in comparison. This explains the strange phenomenon that areas with the least immigration were most likely to vote Brexit.

Scotland has little immigration yet voted remain. You really haven't got a clue, have you?