If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Mortgagefreeman wrote: »

OK something not so new.

I'm not going to quote the whole article, but how about this from Pantheon Macroeconomics, just after the referendum.



http://uk.businessinsider.com/pantheon-macroeconomics-research-brexit-is-ruining-the-british-economy-2016-8

:rotfl:

Thanks for that, yes an economist sticking to his guns and saying Brexit will be bad news. It's just a matter of when NOT if.

prosaver

gfplux wrote: »

I am a Remainder and Talk of rejoining is in my opinion just hot air.
Remember after a Divorce very few get remarried and even if there were the appetite in Britain to rejoin the other 27 will ask a very high price or just say NO.

why would we want to join again?
Things are still the same, Foreign business are investing in the uk,
we can afford to leave without a EU trade agreement, Germany and France cant, and who going to pay are billions we pay every year.
The EU going down the pan, but I think its a British thing too punch(for the remainers) self's in the face..

everything's rosey .
EU not, there's going to be a big hole in their budget, the gravy train is history.
it would interesting to see predictions about the EU?

high unemployment ?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/756100/eu-brexit-black-hole-8-6-billion-jacques-delors-institute-european-union-britain-budget

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

OK something new.......How about this,


"Real wages are falling. "

A combination of low productivity and technological advance. Along with austerity in the public sector. (In case you've missed that piece of news). Still a far better place than the majority of Europe in terms of even just having a job. Nor does the abundance of immigrant labour help those who want to be paid more. When there's many who'll happily work for less i.e. Eastern Europeans.

Rather being negative about the UK. Why not convince us of the success of EU economic policy.

davomcdave

gfplux wrote: »

I am a Remainder and Talk of rejoining is in my opinion just hot air.
Remember after a Divorce very few get remarried and even if there were the appetite in Britain to rejoin the other 27 will ask a very high price or just say NO.

The UK and EU could become the Liz Taylor and Richard Burton of the geopolitical world.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I am a Remainder and Talk of rejoining is in my opinion just hot air.
Remember after a Divorce very few get remarried and even if there were the appetite in Britain to rejoin the other 27 will ask a very high price or just say NO.

It would be a bold person who confidently predicts just where the EU will be in even 10 years time.

It seems like they face 2 different driving forces to me : a) the desire to expand; and b) the desire to consolidate. Any solutions to a) may not be compatible with b).

If the political need arose, they would find a way to rebuild the bonds. A future EU which was structured in a way as to attract Norway/Switzerland/UK into the group in some fashion, would probably have some very attractive elements.

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

It would be a bold person who confidently predicts just where the EU will be in even 10 years time.

It seems like they face 2 different driving forces to me : a) the desire to expand; and b) the desire to consolidate. Any solutions to a) may not be compatible with b).

If the political need arose, they would find a way to rebuild the bonds. A future EU which was structured in a way as to attract Norway/Switzerland/UK into the group in some fashion, would probably have some very attractive elements.

That would mean rolling back the EU to how it was pre-Maastricht which a lot of Brexiteers, myself included, were not uncomfortable with. The zealots in Brussels could never allow that to happen as their sole purpose is a pan-European state.

Private_Church

CKhalvashi wrote: »

The Conservatives have made some equally bad decisions in the last 1.5 Parliaments, the most fatal of which was caving into a mild threat from a political party that currently holds 0 seats, and probably would have won less than a handful had they not.

But you haven't lived here long enough to understand the historic mistrust of the EU by the British public. Sure the Tories have made some mistakes since 2010 but you seem to miss the elephant in the room with regards to Labour. In 1997 -2010. When Labour gained power there was a palpable sense of hope from the working class and many middle class voters. Sadly Labour failed to deliver a fair society by buying votes ,putting benefits above working and contributing . Their top priority was to implement multiculturalism and buy the working class vote with benefits but it couldn't last and people eventually saw through the charade.

The vast majority of people I know including myself wanted Labour to succeed and do a good job, make society more equal, the working classes dreams and aspirations were in their hands and they failed.Now as the saying goes "Time is a great healer" but many my age and older will never forgive Labour.

By 2010 the public had totally lost trust in Labour, the 1 party who we relied on to keep the Conservative party in check but sadly they were full of affluent middle class,many privately educated champagne Socialist . My point being Labour will never ,ever be trusted again by the British public. The Conservative party has change little in reality over the decades ,moving from medium Right wing to the Centre but as a whole we all know what the Conservative principles are but we can't say the same about Labour .


The reason I haven't mentioned the Lib Dems is because they are a bit of a joke. The public didn't like Nick Clegg much but they detest Tim Farron far more. The Lib Dems pinned their colours to the mast when they said we should ignore the Referendum vote and remain. People don't like authoritarian politicians and rebel against them.

What I find most laughable by your posts is you claim to be a democrat but don't believe in democracy. Unlike you I've lived here all of my 48yrs and for decades we have been told "Now is not the right time to have a referendum on EU membership" so even the political elite never said we shouldn't have the vote. That may well have been lip service but if you were Prime Minister you would never allow us the vote and yet you claim to be a Lib Dem. Not sure how you can claim to be when you clearly aren't. Or do you think only the educated should be allowed to vote?.

I've spoken to people who are happy with the way the current government are operating, and I've spoken to people who definitely are not. The question is how that will pan out in 2020, and the honest answer to that can only be that I don't know what the UK will look like in 2020, so I really don't know. Anyone that says they know is lying to you.

I agree .

I don't think the Tories spend enough on education or the infrastructure...The NHS is dying, even if you pumped in £50 billion a year on top of existing funding it will still fail. The free at the point of need model doesn't work in todays global market and the fact that we are an ageing population and expect far too much from the NHS.......... Having said all of that if you ask me if I wanted to live under a Labour or Lib Dem Govt again I would happily stick with this one.:)

StevieJ

Private_Church wrote: »

ople don't like authoritarian politicians and rebel against them.

What I find most laughable by your posts is you claim to be a democrat but don't believe in democracy. Unlike you I've lived here all of my 48yrs and for decades we have been told "Now is not the right time to have a referendum on EU membership" so even the political elite never said we shouldn't have the vote. That may well have been lip service but if you were Prime Minister you would never allow us the vote and yet you claim to be a Lib Dem. Not sure how you can claim to be when you clearly aren't. Or do you think only the educated should be allowed to vote?.

)

A bit like 'we want our parliamentary democracy back' but we don't want them to have a vote on the most important political events in most peoples lifetime. Oh, and what about those traitorous UK judges? :-)

Private_Church

StevieJ wrote: »

A bit like 'we want our parliamentary democracy back' but we don't want them to have a vote on the most important political events in most peoples lifetime. Oh, and what about those traitorous UK judges? :-)

You have highlighted one the problem with our democracy which is politicians are elected to be the voice of /represent their constituents but party politics makes a mockery of exacty what they are there for.Many MP's will vote along parties lines which is often the opposite to what the very people who elected them want. Parliament voting to remain but the electorate voting to leave has caused yet more mistrust of Parliament a rift which grows year on year.

Parliamentary deomcracy should never result in an elected Government having over 60% of the electorate not voting for them and is a tragedy especially when we travel the world preaching democracy to people who neither asked for it nor want it.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Thanks for that, yes an economist sticking to his guns and saying Brexit will be bad news. It's just a matter of when NOT if.

Of course, these economists have got so many of their predictions correct haven't they?

Meanwhile back in the real world Ireland grumble to the EU:

The Government has warned the European Union that Ireland faces uniquely significant and unprecedented challenges to peace and prosperity from the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-faces-unique-challenges-due-to-brexit-says-government-1.3051114