If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

kabayiri wrote: »

I am pretty confident that the Germans will be fine. As it stands, the whole EU thing works pretty well for them.

It's how concerned they are for those weaker states which may be impacted more by Brexit.

I work on the basis that there is absolutely no chance that Poland and Spain will vote for any Brexit treaty that could realistically pass any Tory Cabinet (not even the Good Lord Himself knows what could get through a Corbyn Cabinet). If you lose the votes of the German MEPs (not a homogenous group I admit) then you a two thirds of the way to train wreck Brexit.

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

Maybe you should stop assuming that 48% of the population is made up with people that are all exactly the same.

I assume nothing. I don't feel the need to constantly re-run who did what and for what reasons. And I certainly don't feel the need to attack those that voted differently to me because of some pointless irrelevant demographics.

People with post graduate degrees voted to leave and to remain. Young people voted to leave and to remain. Stupid people and colour blind people and vegans voted to leave and remain.

Shame some other people haven't twigged on to this fact.

You need to get over the fact that of the uneducated people and old people in the UK, most voted leave. We get it, everyone gets a vote whether they're stupid or otherwise and nobody is calling for anything different. On this occasion the thickies and the oldies won the day (joke BTW, it's only your sense of humour that makes you bearable).

Nothing for me to get over. I'm quite happy with the result, more than happy that it was what I wanted and more than happy with the direction of travel. More than happy with paying some exit fee, more than happy for short term continuation of current rules and more than happy for transition to happen over ten years if that's the best outcome.

What I'm not happy with is the prevalent assumption that old people and less intelligent people are worth less than the wonderful young who can't be arsed to vote most of the time and the more educated that generally have no understanding of the lives most of these poor thickos lead.

Feel free to not bear me if you so desire.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

A view of Brexit from Germany:

http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-brexit-reaction-so-what-berlin-indifferent-to-london/



It seems to be true. If you go to a couple of German news websites (I tried Bild and Suddeutsche Zeitung) then Brexit is in there but it's a couple of clicks away from the front page and hardly front and centre.

You are quite correct that German media are (so far) relatively quiet and perhaps even blase about Brexit - but there are a few reasons for this that you are not considering.
(Bear in mind that I have lived in Germany and still have friends and family across Germany.)

German media is far different to ours; they do not (as a rule) sensationalise and generally are also much more even-handed in their reporting.
When problems rear their head as seen recently with "fake news", Germany is quick to introduce legislation to ......... dissuade, if I may use that word, such occurrences.
A fine of up to 50 million Euros is quite a deterrent to posting hate speech for a social media company for example.

Then there is a reluctance (unsurprisingly) to dwell too long on what may influence forthcoming elections in Germany.
Germans are already only too well-aware that the probability is that each and every one of them will end up paying more to the EU as a result of Brexit.
They are also just as capable of reading a diverse range of media from around the world as are you and I.
Given just how many Germans are dissatisfied with the EU (*1 ) , no major component of German media wants to be seen as domineering, irascible or biased.
You never know which way the proverbial cookie will crumble after all.

Also of course it depends upon how good your German is as well as how deep you care to look.
There IS news near the top - but generally not in mainstream media.
In business media though is another thing.
One example being the following, which I have enclosed as a translated link for you, from the Bavarian representative for employer and business associations, BVW:

The depreciation of the British pound against the euro has led to a decline in German and Bavarian exports to the UK. In the fourth quarter of 2016, these were down 10 percent and 14 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year's level. This development continued in January 2017.

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=https://www.vbw-bayern.de/vbw/Aktionsfelder/Europa/Europa-im-Fokus/Brexit-Konjunkturelle-Folgen.jsp&prev=search

This seems to go along with this report from Businessinsider which I posted earlier in this thread:

Ohoven said that keeping Britain in the single market was vital to maintain the close trade links between the two countries. "Germany exported goods worth €89 billion (£76 billion) to the UK alone in 2015 — almost half of it was exported by 150,000 German SMEs,"......... He said the "worst result" would be "if the EU and the UK did not reach an agreement in time."

http://uk.businessinsider.com/german-smes-fear-hard-brexit-would-damage-both-sides-2017-4

So news is there.
Germans are aware.
But they are perhaps not as vocal, as immediately concerned or as easily-led as some here in the UK - plus of course the obvious: it is not Germany that is leaving the EU.


*1

62 per cent of Germans say that the EU is not on the right path and 42 per cent of respondents wished to have a referendum on EU membership.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/11/30/majority-germans-dissatisfied-eu/

48 percent of Germans have an unfavorable attitude towards the bloc

https://www.rt.com/news/346155-germany-eu-pew-poll/

padington

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You are quite correct that German media are (so far) relatively quiet and perhaps even blase about Brexit - but there are a few reasons for this that you are not considering.
(Bear in mind that I have lived in Germany and still have friends and family across Germany.)

German media is far different to ours; they do not (as a rule) sensationalise and generally are also much more even-handed in their reporting.
When problems rear their head as seen recently with "fake news", Germany is quick to introduce legislation to ......... dissuade, if I may use that word, such occurrences.
A fine of up to 50 million Euros is quite a deterrent to posting hate speech for a social media company for example.

Then there is a reluctance (unsurprisingly) to dwell too long on what may influence forthcoming elections in Germany.
Germans are already only too well-aware that the probability is that each and every one of them will end up paying more to the EU as a result of Brexit.
They are also just as capable of reading a diverse range of media from around the world as are you and I.
Given just how many Germans are dissatisfied with the EU (*1 ) , no major component of German media wants to be seen as domineering, irascible or biased.
You never know which way the proverbial cookie will crumble after all.

Also of course it depends upon how good your German is as well as how deep you care to look.
There IS news near the top - but generally not in mainstream media.
In business media though is another thing.
One example being the following, which I have enclosed as a translated link for you, from the Bavarian representative for employer and business associations, BVW:
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=https://www.vbw-bayern.de/vbw/Aktionsfelder/Europa/Europa-im-Fokus/Brexit-Konjunkturelle-Folgen.jsp&prev=search

This seems to go along with this report from Businessinsider which I posted earlier in this thread:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/german-smes-fear-hard-brexit-would-damage-both-sides-2017-4

So news is there.
Germans are aware.
But they are perhaps not as vocal, as immediately concerned or as easily-led as some here in the UK - plus of course the obvious: it is not Germany that is leaving the EU.


*1 http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/11/30/majority-germans-dissatisfied-eu/
https://www.rt.com/news/346155-germany-eu-pew-poll/

Your short replies are so poor, god knows who reads your long ones

Tromking

For all those fretting about those City banking jobs, all is not lost.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39544130

Thrugelmir

davomcdave wrote: »

You need to get over the fact that of the uneducated people and old people in the UK, most voted leave. We get it, everyone gets a vote whether they're stupid or otherwise and nobody is calling for anything different. On this occasion the thickies and the oldies won the day (joke BTW, it's only your sense of humour that makes you bearable).

If you've a goose laying golden eggs why would you wish to change the situation. For many people self interest comes first unfortunately in this current age.

System

davomcdave wrote: »

You need to get over the fact that of the uneducated people and old people in the UK, most voted leave. We get it, everyone gets a vote whether they're stupid or otherwise and nobody is calling for anything different. On this occasion the thickies and the oldies won the day (joke BTW, it's only your sense of humour that makes you bearable).

To be fair I'm not over this. I'm over the result. I voted remain and we are leave, I don't think my life will change much.

But I'm still really struggling with "the right to vote". I doubt even 1% of the population were actually qualified to have a sensible opinion on the referendum. I've said this a few times but democracy terrifies me. People who voted leave and remain did so for reasons that simply aren't relevant. Same applies to general election, why let people who have no idea have a say?

It's like a brain surgeon putting out a vote to ask which bit of brain to hack at. We're not qualified to have an opinion on it.

This always ends up with "there's no better option." there must be something, some kind of multiple choice quiz on the polling card or something. I dunno

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I'd agree with Davo that is is unwise to get too hung up on India.

However, there is a valid analysis buried within this discussion.

We, as a nation, should be looking at where the future opportunities (and challenges) are coming from.

Now you might consider that the EU could become almost a self sustaining ecosystem, and thus buffer itself from global challenges. It's a school of thought.

Personally, I think we need to start thinking much more long term; identify areas which will grow where we can actively gain from, globally.

A good example was on the tv the other day, with the use of UK materials technology to help develop salt water filters

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39482342

The demand for this sort of product is potentially huge, but much of it will come from outside the EU.

An excellent point. However How will leaving the EU stimulate this dormant growth. Will it need Government involvement.
To get new projects off the ground takes a lot of work, time, money and support in the way of Tax Breaks. As I have said before I worry that the British Government are spending so much time and effort on Brexit they don't have the time to do other things.

Thrugelmir

davomcdave wrote: »

I work on the basis that there is absolutely no chance that Poland and Spain will vote for any Brexit treaty that could realistically pass any Tory Cabinet (not even the Good Lord Himself knows what could get through a Corbyn Cabinet). If you lose the votes of the German MEPs (not a homogenous group I admit) then you a two thirds of the way to train wreck Brexit.

Which merely reinforces the view that a one size doesn't fit all. Simply too many differing opinions. Being ruled from afar by unelected politicians doesn't work and never will. If you were a net beneficiary from any source you are not going to vote for anything which reduces your income. That's human nature. Money comes first.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

An excellent point. However How will leaving the EU stimulate this dormant growth. Will it need Government involvement.
To get new projects off the ground takes a lot of work, time, money and support in the way of Tax Breaks. As I have said before I worry that the British Government are spending so much time and effort on Brexit they don't have the time to do other things.

Unfortunately under EU rules state aid is not permitted.