If we vote for Brexit what happens

padington

Oxford and Cambridge voted remain on mass

A_Medium_Size_Jock

padington wrote: »

Oxford and Cambridge voted remain on mass

You are obviously educated at neither; the correct spelling is "en masse".
Strange that you would not know that for one wanting to reside in a French-speaking country.

Talking of which - I wonder why you have not already made your plans for an "interim move" to France as you suggest in your post yesterday?

Oh.
Hang on.
Is it perhaps because in a few months time you may well find yourself in the same rocky boat regarding the EU which so clearly currently causes you such great distress?

Now I will go and take advantage of our glorious weather.

LHW99

Really ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/amp/

http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/

I think the common factor here is the equating of "educated" with "formal education".
I would argue that it is too broad a brush stroke to equate the possession of higher level qualifications with being uneducated.
I can agree that older people certainly were more likely to vote leave, from those articles I have read. Those people were not in the generation where the aim was for 50% to attend university, in general it would have been less than 10% back in the 1970's or before. Those people would also have been in the cohort which watched the original EEC, which people then believed we were joining, turn into the EU, without having been given any chance to express an opinion on that.
I am well aware that the aim of "ever closer union" was there from the beginning, but having also been around at the time of the original vote, I do know that that was very much brushed into the background of the arguments for leaving EFTA and joining the EEC - both by politicians and the media.

davomcdave

LHW99 wrote: »

I think the common factor here is the equating of "educated" with "formal education".
I would argue that it is too broad a brush stroke to equate the possession of higher level qualifications with being uneducated.

The strength of the correlation between education level and Brexit support is much stronger than that between age and Brexit support. The slope on the graphs for age and education are a graphical representation of that (kinda):

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/brexit-vote-statistics-united-kingdom-european-union/488780/

You can demonstrate this with the Ashcroft polling. People with post grad qualifications were twice as likely to vote remain as leave. Compare that with even the widest split by age and while 59% of 18-24 years olds voted remain, 36% of 65+ voted remain too (comparisons are a little complicated by lots of young people simply not voting).

I agree that some of the variance between education levels of leave and remain voters can be explained by their ages, potentially at least, but very far from all of it.

davomcdave

A view of Brexit from Germany:

http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-brexit-reaction-so-what-berlin-indifferent-to-london/

It took less than 24 hours for Brexit to disappear from Germany’s front pages.....

...In Berlin, officials say that, as negotiations begin, they have the upper hand. Brexit may have some limited economic impact on Germany, but the consequences for the U.K. could be far more devastating. And Berlin is sticking to its hard line that doing what it thinks is needed to keep the EU from disintegrating is far more important to its long-term interests than anything it might gain economically by bending to British pressure on trade.

It seems to be true. If you go to a couple of German news websites (I tried Bild and Suddeutsche Zeitung) then Brexit is in there but it's a couple of clicks away from the front page and hardly front and centre. If I go to the Grauniad website there's:

Brexit Barnier ‘lobbied to stop May withdrawing article 50 in two years’
Mark Carney Bank of England orders financial firms to draft Brexit contingency plans
Ryanair 'will have to suspend UK flights' without early Brexit deal
Gibraltar Sovereignty not up for negotiation, May tells Tusk

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

The strength of the correlation between education level and Brexit support is much stronger than that between age and Brexit support. The slope on the graphs for age and education are a graphical representation of that (kinda):

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/brexit-vote-statistics-united-kingdom-european-union/488780/

You can demonstrate this with the Ashcroft polling. People with post grad qualifications were twice as likely to vote remain as leave. Compare that with even the widest split by age and while 59% of 18-24 years olds voted remain, 36% of 65+ voted remain too (comparisons are a little complicated by lots of young people simply not voting).

I agree that some of the variance between education levels of leave and remain voters can be explained by their ages, potentially at least, but very far from all of it.

Can we just put this to bed once and for all.

Very intelligent people decided to let unintelligent morons have a say in the future of the country, despite the thickos having no ability to understand the complex issues being debated.

Then, after realising that they had made a big mistake which may put at risk their comfy lifestyles, the self-proclaimed intelligentsia simply wrap themselves in a big blanket of blame, failing to appreciate that it's their fault that they might have to fill a few forms in before they get to jet off to Tuscany.

Isn't it time that you very very clever remain voters had the balls to stand up and say you think that right to vote should be based on passing some IQ test?

kabayiri

davomcdave wrote: »

The strength of the correlation between education level and Brexit support is much stronger than that between age and Brexit support. The slope on the graphs for age and education are a graphical representation of that (kinda):
...

I suppose the question is "so what?".

I can't imagine people are advocating stripping certain people of the vote because they lack the necessary income/education/IQ/religious profile.

Parts of Europe have been down that path before. It didn't end well.

What is interesting is that in recent GE's the poor or uneducated showed a greater reluctance to vote. Turnout for voting has been poor for some time.

So, maybe we didn't really know the mood of this class of voter?

Cameron really should have done his research. Maybe he just asked Corbyn who said oh they will be alright up there in the frozen North...

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Can we just put this to bed once and for all.

Very intelligent people decided to let unintelligent morons have a say in the future of the country, despite the thickos having no ability to understand the complex issues being debated.

Then, after realising that they had made a big mistake which may put at risk their comfy lifestyles, the self-proclaimed intelligentsia simply wrap themselves in a big blanket of blame, failing to appreciate that it's their fault that they might have to fill a few forms in before they get to jet off to Tuscany.

Isn't it time that you very very clever remain voters had the balls to stand up and say you think that right to vote should be based on passing some IQ test?

Maybe you should stop assuming that 48% of the population is made up with people that are all exactly the same.

People with post graduate degrees voted to leave and to remain. Young people voted to leave and to remain. Stupid people and colour blind people and vegans voted to leave and remain.

You need to get over the fact that of the uneducated people and old people in the UK, most voted leave. We get it, everyone gets a vote whether they're stupid or otherwise and nobody is calling for anything different. On this occasion the thickies and the oldies won the day (joke BTW, it's only your sense of humour that makes you bearable).

kabayiri

davomcdave wrote: »

A view of Brexit from Germany:

http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-brexit-reaction-so-what-berlin-indifferent-to-london/

...

I am pretty confident that the Germans will be fine. As it stands, the whole EU thing works pretty well for them.

It's how concerned they are for those weaker states which may be impacted more by Brexit.

davomcdave

kabayiri wrote: »

I suppose the question is "so what?".

I can't imagine people are advocating stripping certain people of the vote because they lack the necessary income/education/IQ/religious profile.

Parts of Europe have been down that path before. It didn't end well.

What is interesting is that in recent GE's the poor or uneducated showed a greater reluctance to vote. Turnout for voting has been poor for some time.

So, maybe we didn't really know the mood of this class of voter?

Cameron really should have done his research. Maybe he just asked Corbyn who said oh they will be alright up there in the frozen North...

So What? is always a great question to ask and on this occasion there isn't a reply beyond the fact that, to me, it's interesting. If you break down voters into rich and poor, old and young, clever and stupid, Spurs and Arsenal then you will always find differences.

What hasn't really been discussed as far as I can see is that people that identify as white voted far more strongly than people that identify as not-white to Leave. Most of the migrants from the EU that wouldn't want to be kicked out I would guess would identify as white (Europe doesn't have an oppressed 'Hispanic' minority in the same way the US does). That's interesting but probably doesn't pass So What? either.