If we vote for Brexit what happens

zagubov

onlyroz wrote: »

I read an amusing article the other day suggesting that Scotland should join Canada, and then Canada could apply to join the EU. Crazy idea it could it work?

Canada could join Scotland. Then Canada wouldn't need to apply to join the EU. It could join EFTA (and the EEA) instead. Everyone's a winner. :beer:

davomcdave

Interesting article on Brexit in the Independent written by Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's representative on Brexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-eu-will-defend-its-interests-in-the-brexit-talks-but-will-also-be-generous-to-british-citizens-a7674371.html

I thought these bits were particularly interesting:

Leaving this single market will have consequences, because of course, it would be incoherent and grossly unfair for full members of the EU club to be asked to give a third country a better deal than they have themselves.

As the Parliament’s Brexit text also makes clear, any future economic agreement between the EU and the UK must not contain piecemeal or sectorial provisions regarding preferential access to the single market. This is not punishment; it is an inevitable consequence of the UK Government’s decision to leave it.

The EU's preferred approach to trade negotiations these days is to put everything it there, to negotiate transparently. If we want to know the EU's approach it should be pretty easy to find out what it is, assuming they're not lying.

This summarises the legal framework surrounding Brexit in the opinion of the European Parliament:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/599352/EPRS_IDA%282017%29599352_EN.pdf

Any changes to treaties will need a super qualified majority, that is the support of 72% of MEPs representing 65% of the population. As the EU's population-ex UK is about 690million people, MEPs representing about 240 million people can block any treaty change. Spain plus Poland, who are likely to block pretty much any agreement because of Gibraltar and FoM respectively, have a population between them of 80 million so we're already a third of the way towards any agreement likely to be acceptable to Brexit-supporters being shot down.

This is exactly why I believe that an agreement is highly unlikely and what I jokingly call train wreck Brexit is by far the most likely outcome.

padington

davomcdave wrote: »

Interesting article on Brexit in the Independent written by Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament's representative on Brexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-eu-will-defend-its-interests-in-the-brexit-talks-but-will-also-be-generous-to-british-citizens-a7674371.html

I thought these bits were particularly interesting

The EU's preferred approach to trade negotiations these days is to put everything it there, to negotiate transparently. If we want to know the EU's approach it should be pretty easy to find out what it is, assuming they're not lying.

This summarises the legal framework surrounding Brexit in the opinion of the European Parliament:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/599352/EPRS_IDA%282017%29599352_EN.pdf

Any changes to treaties will need a super qualified majority, that is the support of 72% of MEPs representing 65% of the population. As the EU's population-ex UK is about 690million people, MEPs representing about 240 million people can block any treaty change. Spain plus Poland, who are likely to block pretty much any agreement because of Gibraltar and FoM respectively, have a population between them of 80 million so we're already a third of the way towards any agreement likely to be acceptable to Brexit-supporters being shot down.

This is exactly why I believe that an agreement is highly unlikely and what I jokingly call train wreck Brexit is by far the most likely outcome.

Don't forget Canada needed every country to support its new trade deal ...

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/

davomcdave

padington wrote: »

Don't forget Canada needed every country to support its new trade deal ...

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/

...which took 7 years to agree.

In addition, Canada doesn't rule Gibraltar or have hundreds of thousands of Polish migrants.

LHW99

Find me a living British prime minister, past or present that hasn't expressed serious misgivings about Brexit.

I am not (particularly) arguing with that statement - it is likely to be correct, as that has been the political climate for the last 40-odd years.

My issue is with the IMO over-simplified statement that

the least educated part of (t)he electorate voted to leave.

padington

LHW99 wrote: »

I am not (particularly) arguing with that statement - it is likely to be correct, as that has been the political climate for the last 40-odd years.

My issue is with the IMO over-simplified statement that

Really ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/amp/

http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/

Many of the most educated and knowledgable about Europe were aghast at the idea that we didn't have a good deal already with Europe. We had spent 44 years negotiating it. It involved the sweat and toil of millions of 'man' years involving some of our finest people.

The LBC talk shows we're a stream of people spouting lies they had been fed. Everyone citing Europe as being bastion of bad laws. No one be able to cite these bad laws. Saying millions will be saved but not knowing how etc.

The ultra rich just wanted to rid themselves with the framework that protect the poor with basic health and safety and basic rights and they pumped money into the campaign and whipped up fear of immigration that for good or bad was highly necessary for our economy since the banks did us over like a kipper in 2008. That's the truth. That's why immigration won't go away and why we were sold a lie, bought head over heals by the poor and uneducated.

TrickyTree83

davomcdave wrote: »

The application of game theory tells us that it is highly unlikely that there will be a deal. Certainly not in two years and probably not in a decade.

A genuine question for pro-Brexit people: would you accept a transitional deal in two years time, assuming a Brexit deal can't be achieved, which keeps the 'four pillars' in place while a trade agreement is hammered out (freedom of movement of goods, freedom of movement of capital, freedom of movement of labour, freedom to provide services), ensures the UK pays for what it has already agreed to pay for but no more, a recognition at least that the UK is entitled to a share of assets and no 'rule from Brussels' (no MEPs sent up, no requirement to enter in to British law what comes out of Brussels except what is required to keep the single market functioning)? Or would you rather just have what I call a 'train wreck' Brexit (no agreement of any sort, just walk away and be done with it)?

Can you walk people through the logic of that?

Explaining to them why X, Y and Z mean the outcome is A?

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

Wrong, again we've been the talk of the world, the Canadians can't believe how stupid we've been.

I don't care what a country who has introduced a blasphemy law in 2017 thinks. Clearly they are a few sandwiches short of a picnic, a bit like the pro EU protesters that can't tell us why they're protesting except for that it makes their holidays harder . .give me a break. It matters more what the people of this country think and that happens to be to leave the EU.

TrickyTree83

padington wrote: »

Really ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/amp/

http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/

Many of the most educated and knowledgable about Europe were aghast at the idea that we didn't have a good deal already with Europe. We had spent 44 years negotiating it. It involved the sweat and toil of millions of 'man' years involving some of our finest people.

The LBC talk shows we're a stream of people spouting lies they had been fed. Everyone citing Europe as being bastion of bad laws. No one be able to cite these bad laws. Saying millions will be saved but not knowing how etc.

The ultra rich just wanted to rid themselves with the framework that protect the poor with basic health and safety and basic rights and they pumped money into the campaign and whipped up fear of immigration that for good or bad was highly necessary for our economy since the banks did us over like a kipper in 2008. That's the truth. That's why immigration won't go away and why we were sold a lie, bought head over heals by the poor and uneducated.

Oooh you are spoiling for an argument aren't you.

Wish I had the time but the weather is lovely, and you can lead a horse to water and all that, so this weekend I would rather not waste the time. But come the week I'll do my best to respond retrospectively.

davomcdave

padington wrote: »

Really ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/amp/

http://www.populus.co.uk/2016/05/brexit-index-whos-remain-leave-supporters/

This isn't the same as saying the least educated voted to leave.

The older a person was and the less educated they were the more likely they were to vote leave but that's not the same thing as Brexit supporters are old and stupid, as tempting as it is to say that :rotfl:

What is quite interesting is Lord Ashcroft's polling on what people want from Brexit:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/new-political-landscape-britain-expects-brexit/#more-15134

43% reckon the EU has the stronger negotiating position and just 24% think the UK has with 56% of people thinking that if there's a poor deal with the EU it'll be the EU's fault.

Slightly more people think that the UK will be better of financially outside the EU but those that think things will get better see things getting better over the next 5 years whereas people who think things will get worse think its happening already.

Leavers feel more English than British, remainers feel more British than English.

71% of remainers have taken a foreign holiday in the last 3 years but only 54% of leavers (reflecting lower social class => poorer?)

Leavers are more likely to have a physical or mental condition that interferes with their day-to-day ability to function (25% vs 19%)

Remainers are more than twice as likely to have a post grad than leavers (15% vs 7%). 67% of leavers finished education at High School vs 44% of remainers.

Leavers and remainers are just as likely to rent or own as each other,

Leavers are 95% white while 89% of remainers are white and much more likely to be Christian (58% v 44%)

Remainers are twice as likely to earn £62,001 or more than leavers (14%-7%)