If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Imagine Brexit had never been a thing.

Instead let's suppose France had voted to leave.

How would we Brits as EU members wish to treat the French?

I am sure we would agree we would need to find a way to continue trading and acting as good friends.

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Imagine Brexit had never been a thing.

Instead let's suppose France had voted to leave.

How would we Brits as EU members wish to treat the French?

I am sure we would agree we would need to find a way to continue trading and acting as good friends.

In your scenario I imagine that a large number of Brits would wish to treat the French badly, object to any deals and call them names.

You only need to see how Brits behave with immigrants.

Fella

BobQ wrote: »

In your scenario I imagine that a large number of Brits would wish to treat the French badly, object to any deals and call them names.

You only need to see how Brits behave with immigrants.

Yawn.

List the ways in which "Brits" treat immigrants badly, followed by a nice long list of all the countries that treat immigrants better.

Or shall we instead write a huge list of the countries that actually treat immigrants badly, if they allow them at all?

davomcdave

setmefree2 wrote: »

And my point was that when a.n. other was Fillion I though the French might stay at home as I couldn't see a leftie voting for Fillion - but I think most French voters, of what ever persuasion, will be able to hold their noses and vote for Macron.

If you look at the last few regional elections then it becomes clear how great the mountain the FN has to climb.

If we take the 2011 Cantonale elections for example the FN and Sakozy's Gaulists got about the same level of first round votes. The FN ended up with 2 seats, the UMP got more than 300. The reason for the difference is that most non-FN voters will vote anyone apart from FN in the second round.
This means two things:

1. It is very hard to gain power in a 2 round FPTP vote in France as a non-consensus candidate.
2. It is quite possible that a party like the FN could move from having almost no representation to having massive representation very quickly as there is a tipping point where they could go from relying on support from others to being able to gain seats just from their own support.

As of the last time I looked no serious political party in France was asking their voters to put their cross against the FN in the second round. It is likely that the FN will need something like 50%+1 in order to win anything significant.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Macron should beat Le Pen handily - he's now taken the lead in French polling knocking Le Pen off the top spot in round one - and that's before the other Centrist's votes consolidate around him in round 2.

So the Austrians elected the pro-EU left of centre candidate instead of the hard right, the Dutch went for the pro-EU centre right instead of the hard right, the French are leaning towards the massively pro-EU centrist, and the Germans are split mostly between the pro-EU centre right incumbent, and the even more pro-EU centre left challenger - with the far right not getting much of a look-in.

With the rapidly failing Trump Presidency now looking about as likely to end in impeachment as re-election - and UKIP self-destructing quite spectacularly - we may well have passed the point of 'peak populism'. About time too.

There are of course still some risks out there - a big terrorist attack designed to disrupt the election campaigns, etc, as we know ISIS wants to start a race/religion/culture war so they'd love nothing more than seeing the far right elected. Hopefully any such plots will be foiled though - or if one does get through - hopefully the electorate will see through that sort of manipulation.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Given how often ^^^^ is wrong, should we perhaps take this as a sign of change to come in Europe?


Here is how Deutsche Welle are reporting the Rome 60th anniversary "jolly";

Britain's imminent departure has shaken the EU's confidence and left the bloc searching for new answers to a host of challenges. A migration crisis, eurozone debt crisis and terrorism have sown disunity and paralysis in EU decision-making and given rise to euroskeptic populists.

http://www.dw.com/en/eu-leaders-minus-uk-declare-europe-is-our-common-future/a-38118672

A_Medium_Size_Jock

In today's FT a Swiss acknowledgement of how Brexit can be good for Britain:

“The UK has lots of advantages and if they are used cleverly to decouple from the EU, as well as the new freedom in a good bilateral relationship, then the UK could develop very positively — I’m convinced of that,” Mr Maurer said.

https://www.ft.com/content/2354d3c0-0d8a-11e7-b030-768954394623

(If paywalled search "Brexit can be good for Britain, says Swiss finance minister" for readable content.)

Private_Church

Fella wrote: »

Yawn.

List the ways in which "Brits" treat immigrants badly, followed by a nice long list of all the countries that treat immigrants better.

Or shall we instead write a huge list of the countries that actually treat immigrants badly, if they allow them at all?

Re: Other countries helping out immigrants better than UK..


Well theres the helpful areas where there are local road signs in Polish to help the Poles...........Oh sorry thats the East Midlands in the UK. Then theres the signs,leaflets,forms etc in GP surgeries in various languages ....Oh sorry thats the UK..

Ok well how about all help with the forms for claiming in work and out of work benefits and health services all in numerous different languages to assist immigrants? ... Oh thats the UK again.

Think I have it this time.. What about the countries that allowed EU migrants from the 2004 accession countries to come and work for day 1 rather than keep them out for a further 5yrs like some other countries did.................... Damn, that was the UK again wasn't it..:(

I wonder if its the same when Immigrants living in France need their health services and benefits?.

Ok, you win Fella...................:D

gfplux

Some have suggested that if our (Britains) negotiators are clever they can take advantage in the next few months during the UK V EU negotiations.
Let us hope so.

Let us also hope that the Government does not miss any other opportunities while sooooo focused on the EU.

I have said a number of times that the "lost opportunity cost" could be significant.
I would wish that a few Brexiteers would agitate about the LOC. (Lost Opportunity Cost)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Marine Le Pen offers the French a poll on the Euro if she wins:

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen sought on Sunday to reassure voters concerned over her plans to withdraw the country from the euro zone, saying it "wouldn't be chaos" and she would seek "well-prepared" talks with other European Union countries.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-le-pen-euro-idUKKBN16X0GN