If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It goes far deeper than simply BMW and buying new cars.

True, but one of the main go-to's from the Brexiteer side is that BMW can't afford to lose us as customers, when the fact is that they very easily can.

Why are you trying to work it out when the German's themselves have said that they need a good deal with the UK?

Because whilst the Germans have said they need a good deal (and of course they'll want a good deal), we need the good deal an awful lot more than they do. The link I posted a few pages back of a pitch to German business leaders shows the level of interest they have in capitulating to us. It's not as much as the Brexit side would like to think it is.

Back to my original point: If we don't get a good deal, we'll suffer much worse than Germany will.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

True, but one of the main go-to's from the Brexiteer side is that BMW can't afford to lose us as customers, when the fact is that they very easily can.



Because whilst the Germans have said they need a good deal (and of course they'll want a good deal), we need the good deal an awful lot more than they do. The link I posted a few pages back of a pitch to German business leaders shows the level of interest they have in capitulating to us. It's not as much as the Brexit side would like to think it is.

Back to my original point: If we don't get a good deal, we'll suffer much worse than Germany will.

We'll suffer if there's tariffs?

We'll have higher prices, their sales will drop. We'll be free to do as we please with the income from the tariffs we levy on their imported goods that do sell, such as state help for industry - under EU law (I know they barely follow it) they cannot.

Herzlos

The tariffs will work both ways though. They'll sell a bit less, we'll sell a bit less.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

The tariffs will work both ways though. They'll sell a bit less, we'll sell a bit less.

But being a net importer, even with a price increase (which we will be because people love to buy the big ticket status symbol items) will mean we're levying much more money than they are, which means we can use that to subsidise business in this country to offset the hit they will take. In the UK the only people who may lose out are those to have to purchase (the consumers) products from the EU. I doubt business will and I doubt export levels will either.

Herzlos

And being that we're a net importer, that means we're going to have a disproportionately high number of consumers purchasing from the EU?

I'm not sure export will remain the same either, if we get more expensive (tariffs, offset by the drop in GDP) and slower (customs). So essentially we'll be getting less money in, and paying more money out.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

And being that we're a net importer, that means we're going to have a disproportionately high number of consumers purchasing from the EU?

I'm not sure export will remain the same either, if we get more expensive (tariffs, offset by the drop in GDP) and slower (customs). So essentially we'll be getting less money in, and paying more money out.

if tariffs are introduced then both parties will be worse off.
the volume of both imports and exports will fall in the UK and the EU.

a lose, lose situation if the EU elite wish to be vindictive and damage the economy of their own people

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

if tariffs are introduced then both parties will be worse off.
the volume of both imports and exports will fall in the UK and the EU.

a lose, lose situation if the EU elite wish to be vindictive and damage the economy of their own people

Agreed. But it's important to remember who will be worse off and how both sides will be able to survive and move on.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Agreed. But it's important to remember who will be worse off and how both sides will be able to survive and move on.

Our exports to the EU attract an overall lower tariff rate


We import double that we export so we collect double the tariffs which we can invest in UK business / infrastructure


The currency movement equates to 3x the sum of would be tariffs


Free of the Customs Union we can import cheaper from the US and elsewhere


I watched the entire Whitehouse Speakers latest press briefing (the second one shown last night). The US wants bi-lateral trade deals.


I really do think a new global Anglo-sphere is developing, this is where the action and dynamism is going to be.


A modest tariff with the EU is a blip, easily made up for


BARRIERS TO TRADE - other than tariffs, not going to happen, will make the EU even more isolated and less relevant on the modern global trade stage. They need unfettered access to the City as Carney says


If the EU play hard ball, so will we - reduced corporation tax is but one example

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Agreed. But it's important to remember who will be worse off and how both sides will be able to survive and move on.

there is no reason, except EU politics, why any trade should be affected.
It is absurd and ridiculous to suggest that survival is an issue of either the EU or the UK.

You have a strange view of the degree of integration of the EU with regard to possible loss of trade. I see no indication that the 'EU' will come to the rescue of particular companies or emplyees or even crountries that are affected.

Conrad

China needs all the friends she can get going forward, given US intentions regards the South China sea, and re-drawing the China / US trade relationship.


This gives us, the dynamic soft power leader, great leverage.


For example if China does a trade deal with us, it's in our interest to see China prospering and amicable US / China relations