If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

No one seems to have any good economic news to post.

We keep getting some bad news. Like this...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-cost-britain-more-than-5-of-gdp-by-2030-say-city-economists-a7541616.html
"Analysts from three City of London financial institutions expect the cost of Theresa May's hard Brexit to add up to between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of GDP by 2030.
In today's money that's equivalent to between £100bn and £200bn.

This is an estimate of the loss of GDP relative to where the economy would have been without Brexit."

For Brexiteers.
1) They are experts
2) it's an estimate
3) it hasn't happened yet, like the new trade deals.
4) who cares, we only take notice of good news.

And recent economic forecasting has been how good? Let alone the next decade and a half. When there's uncertainty as to the form that the both the EU and the Euro will take.

IMF upgrades UK after better-than-expected growth following Brexit vote

http://news.sky.com/story/imf-upgrades-uk-after-better-than-expected-growth-following-brexit-vote-10731194

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

No one seems to have any good economic news to post.

We keep getting some bad news. Like this...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-cost-britain-more-than-5-of-gdp-by-2030-say-city-economists-a7541616.html
"Analysts from three City of London financial institutions expect the cost of Theresa May's hard Brexit to add up to between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of GDP by 2030.
In today's money that's equivalent to between £100bn and £200bn.

This is an estimate of the loss of GDP relative to where the economy would have been without Brexit."

For Brexiteers.
1) They are experts
2) it's an estimate
3) it hasn't happened yet, like the new trade deals.
4) who cares, we only take notice of good news.

no, they are not experts, they are pretty stupid

They don't seem to understand simple maths that a lower GDP doesn't make people poorer although a lower per capita GDP possibly might, and of course that per capita GDP does not equate to the wealthfare of the people.
But then you don't understand simple maths either and you don't understand the difference between wealthfare of the people and GDP.

mrginge

gfplux wrote: »

no one seems to have any good economic news to post.

We keep getting some bad news. Like this...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-cost-britain-more-than-5-of-gdp-by-2030-say-city-economists-a7541616.html
"analysts from three city of london financial institutions expect the cost of theresa may's hard brexit to add up to between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of gdp by 2030.
In today's money that's equivalent to between £100bn and £200bn.

This is an estimate of the loss of gdp relative to where the economy would have been without brexit."

for brexiteers.
1) they are experts
2) it's an estimate
3) it hasn't happened yet, like the new trade deals.
4) who cares, we only take notice of good news.

oh my god how will we cope with gdp estimated to rise by 1.8%

Thrugelmir

mrginge wrote: »

oh my god how will we cope with gdp estimated to rise by 1.8%

If the UK continues to borrow at the rate it is. Then GDP will be a meaningless figure to the average person on the street. As austerity will continue to bite into their pockets.

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

No one seems to have any good economic news to post.

We keep getting some bad news. Like this...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-cost-britain-more-than-5-of-gdp-by-2030-say-city-economists-a7541616.html
"Analysts from three City of London financial institutions expect the cost of Theresa May's hard Brexit to add up to between 5 per cent and 10 per cent of GDP by 2030.
In today's money that's equivalent to between £100bn and £200bn.

This is an estimate of the loss of GDP relative to where the economy would have been without Brexit."

For Brexiteers.
1) They are experts
2) it's an estimate
3) it hasn't happened yet, like the new trade deals.
4) who cares, we only take notice of good news.

And they know what will happen regards China and the US, Russia, who will fall out of the the EU, who will be French leader etc etc

That you bother to give his any more than a passing seconds consideration speaks volumes

For the zillionth time read the book Futurebabble, a forensic examination of the accuracy of predictions by economists and social scientists which finds almost 100% failure rate when it comes to big ticket predictions

Will you guys never learn?

The book even sums up why people of your mindset fall for these bogus tea leaf readers over and over again. Surely you ought to know this stuff?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Your Company way well relocate parts of the organisation elsewhere on commercial grounds. Absolutely nothing to do with the EU membership. Labour is now global.

Nah if my company relocates it will 100% be due to EU membership. No going into details but my UK customers are insignificant in dollar terms compared to my EU customers, and if I need to be in the EU to make money from them, I'll be in the EU. I like them, but I'd need to follow the money.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is it? Who would BMW sell their cars to (for example). There's not the market elsewhere in Europe.

They only sell about 10.3% to the UK:

And since it's a status good bought mostly on credit, if the price went up by, say, 50%, they'd still get a significant amount of sales. Realistically, WTO terms would mean a hit of about 5% to BMW. Will they really petition Merkel to give us a special deal over that?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Nah if my company relocates it will 100% be due to EU membership. No going into details but my UK customers are insignificant in dollar terms compared to my EU customers, and if I need to be in the EU to make money from them, I'll be in the EU. I like them, but I'd need to follow the money.



They only sell about 10.3% to the UK:

And since it's a status good bought mostly on credit, if the price went up by, say, 50%, they'd still get a significant amount of sales. Realistically, WTO terms would mean a hit of about 5% to BMW. Will they really petition Merkel to give us a special deal over that?

so 10% loss in your sales wouldn't matter to your business?

is that because it's a supported by state handouts

Herzlos

The_Last_Username wrote: »

First part - bribery, pure & simple. "Offered". Remind us all, will they discuss rights for those UK citizens that are currently ALSO EU citizens living in Europe but outside the UK?

If it needs to be discussed I'm sure it will. Once A50 has been triggered, as the EU have made clear.

You really may not get the option, despite what you now believe. Even if you are an EU passport holder rather than a UK passport holder.

The EU are always happy to take in skilled professionals with jobs lined up.
Unless the UK introduces something that makes leaving impossible, I don't forsee any issues. And if that happens, I'm pretty sure I'll be able to claim asylum or something.

Again you cannot have it both ways. The UK would have to lose significant numbers of workers AND jobs without any replacement or alternatives at all for this to have any serious effect.
As in millions.

Maybe not millions, we're already struggling. Any job lost that isn't replaced (and I wouldn't be replaced in the UK - the job would just go away) means one less paying into the pot. Different if me leaving opened up a space for someone else to take my job but that's not likely.

That without considering that a lower population needs less supporting infrastructure and so less tax burden, not increased.

Only if the people leaving are a broad subset of the population. If it's just the young earners leaving, you're just going to become more top-heavy with all of those expensive pensioners and less people to pay the pensions. Sure, less people will reduce some costs, but the burden will have to be spread over less people.

Ah, but robots do already build other robots don't they? It may not take as much tech. advancement as you think.

Not really, they can assemble bits of themselves, but they still need to be designed and programmed by humans. We're still a long way away from Skynet.

Having lived in both countries myself that is a definite YES. In many ways that matter the UK is more liberal, without doubt.

Fair enough, I'll take that on board. I'm still hoping that I'll be able to stay in the UK, as I do actually like it up here. But I'd chose a lot of places over Tory England.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

so 10% loss in your sales wouldn't matter to your business?

We've shrugged off 10% drops in sales before. It's crap but it's manageable.

Will Germanys economic position change over a threat of losing 5% of sales? Do we really have them over a barrel, threatening to take away their 4th largest export market?

If we bought 60+% of BMWs I'd understand your point - WTO would destroy them. But 10.3% means they'll get by just fine.

"Give us what we want or we'll take away <5% of your sales" doesn't really work as an ultimatum, does it?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

We've shrugged off 10% drops in sales before. It's crap but it's manageable.

Will Germanys economic position change over a threat of losing 5% of sales? Do we really have them over a barrel, threatening to take away their 4th largest export market?

If we bought 60+% of BMWs I'd understand your point - WTO would destroy them. But 10.3% means they'll get by just fine.

"Give us what we want or we'll take away <5% of your sales" doesn't really work as an ultimatum, does it?

It goes far deeper than simply BMW and buying new cars.

Why are you trying to work it out when the German's themselves have said that they need a good deal with the UK?