If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

The City will thrive regardless of some minor staff re-locations.

You used to tell us it was as simple as putting a brass plate up.
Now you're talking about minor staff-relocations.
To be continued.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

What 'give' would see feel was equitable?

Some sort of rational discussion instead of dismissal as being UK hating for asking questions like "why?"

Remain told us a Norway / Swiss deal was 'the worst of all deals, halve in, halve out, democracy by fax'.

And as far as I'm aware, that's still the case, representatives in Norway even warned us against it. But May isn't talking about a Norway model.
There were some pretty bad lies on both sides, that's never been in doubt.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Trump wants to make BI-LATERAL deals with similarly advanced nations that do not under-cut one another with ultra cheap labour.

And he's also talking about 35% import tariffs on foreign made cars. Most of his election pitch was about keeping jobs and production in the US So what makes you think he'll allow us to import stuff tariff free?

He has no interest in what we can get from the deal, but what he can get from the deal, so don't expect it to be symmetrical or even close to our favor.

I'd expect: UK to ratify TTIP, tariff free trade on x,y,z goods and services, take it or leave it.
I wouldn't be surprised by: UK to ban wind farms, 10+% higher tariffs going from UK->US than US->UK. or the deal changing from under us (see all of Trumps previous business dealings).

We can hopefully get some deal that suits us, but we're dealing with an ego-driven protectionist who will have us over a barrel by the point the negotiations start.

Normally I'd say the US market was a safe bet, but with Trump and his cabinet at the helm, all bets are off.

padington

Herzlos wrote: »

And he's also talking about 35% import tariffs on foreign made cars. Most of his election pitch was about keeping jobs and production in the US So what makes you think he'll allow us to import stuff tariff free?

He has no interest in what we can get from the deal, but what he can get from the deal, so don't expect it to be symmetrical or even close to our favor.

I'd expect: UK to ratify TTIP, tariff free trade on x,y,z goods and services, take it or leave it.
I wouldn't be surprised by: UK to ban wind farms, 10+% higher tariffs going from UK->US than US->UK. or the deal changing from under us (see all of Trumps previous business dealings).

We can hopefully get some deal that suits us, but we're dealing with an ego-driven protectionist who will have us over a barrel by the point the negotiations start.

Normally I'd say the US market was a safe bet, but with Trump and his cabinet at the helm, all bets are off.

I reckon you're wrong, I reckon he will do a relatively sweet ( fair) deal for the UK, it will be his way of showing the world the 'look what you could get' carrot.

It could be a wise thing to do on the first instance for a deal maker under the spot light who is just about to do deals with everyone else. Just like a website doing an amazing first day deal to get the interest. Of Course, only the website owners cousin ever actually gets the hot deal.

The disclaimer will be that the UK pays its dues's to Nato, aligns itself to the US and away from Europe and gives us the 'full monty' fanfair when we come to town.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

We can hopefully get some deal that suits us, but we're dealing with an ego-driven protectionist who will have us over a barrel by the point the negotiations start.

We are not idiots nor impotent, our investment in the US is matched by theirs in the UK in spite of no trade deal.


Trump needs to demonstrate to US business that he can assemble free trade with like minded nations (not sweat shop nations).


They can sell us wine, I-phones, Microsoft and peanuts, we can sell them Angus beef (Trumps inaugural lunch dinner), Burberry, Rolls and insurance.


He has every right to try and get BMW not to make some of their cars in cheap Mexico for export to US.

Herzlos

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38707997

Brexiteer rhetoric over the past year has often focused on the size of Britain's market and how keen German manufacturers are to sell to British customers.
Many leave campaigners remain convinced that German business leaders will force Mrs Merkel to grant the UK a special free trade deal in order not to lose British trade.
But that's not what's happening.

Instead German firms are remarkably united in their support of the chancellor in her rejection of British "cherry-picking" - even if it means losing business in the short-term.

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38707997

It's quite simple really.
If German industry is faced with interruption of trade with a market of 60 million, compared with interruption of trade with a market of 400 million, the choice is obvious.

Obvious to all, except our resident brexit headbangers.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

We are not idiots nor impotent

Correct.

our investment in the US is matched by theirs in the UK in spite of no trade deal.

I don't believe so, but I don't have the numbers. I get the impression that US medical companies are desperate to get into our NHS.

Trump needs to demonstrate to US business that he can assemble free trade with like minded nations (not sweat shop nations).

1. Isn't our Brexit minister talking about turning us into a sweat shop nation by "deregulating" in order to remain competitve?
2. Why would they feel it's ok to send any jobs to the UK, when they could have them in the US?

They can sell us wine, I-phones, Microsoft and peanuts, we can sell them Angus beef (Trumps inaugural lunch dinner), Burberry, Rolls and insurance.

He has every right to try and get BMW not to make some of their cars in cheap Mexico for export to US.

What if we build cars cheaper than the US? We could easily start assembling Jags in Mexico or India and then get slapped with huge tariffs?

Herzlos

padington wrote: »

I reckon you're wrong, I reckon he will do a relatively sweet ( fair) deal for the UK, it will be his way of showing the world the 'look what you could get' carrot.

Fair point, we might get something that suits us and that'd set a good example.

The disclaimer will be that the UK pays its dues's to Nato, aligns itself to the US and away from Europe and gives us the 'full monty' fanfair when we come to town.

Trump and team are trying to get out of NATO, as per Trumps campaign stance on it. See: https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/193
It's called the "American Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2017"

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

It's quite simple really.
If German industry is faced with interruption of trade with a market of 60 million, compared with interruption of trade with a market of 400 million, the choice is obvious.

Obvious to all, except our resident brexit headbangers.

clearly that is a false alternative.