If we vote for Brexit what happens

Tromking

Sapphire wrote: »

Indeed – and I voted Leave primarily because I was so shocked by the issue of sovereignty being removed from European nations, which no citizen of European countries had ever been asked to vote on! Before the migrant crisis, I really had no idea that the intention was to create a European empire, and one run primarily by Germany.

Interesting to hear via Andrew Neil on The Sunday Politics that Trump`s inner circle view Germany in a very negative light owing to them perceiving the Germans as being guilty of manipulating an undervalued Euro to suit German economic needs, they have similar views on the Chinese of course.I expect both countries to be in Trumps crosshairs tout suite.
Neil went on to say that an until recently embattled Theresa May has got lucky with the election of a pro-Brexit and anti-EU superstate President Trump. The vote to leave the EU by the good people of the UK might turn out to be a well timed act of genius.
Welcome back the 'Special Relationship'.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It is like taking a journey on an aeroplane and then WISHING that the plane is going to crash.

I'd say it's more like being on a aeroplane that's on fire and looking around baffled when the crew are adamant that it'll be fine because it's raining 200 miles ahead and that might put it out.

We don't want the UK to collapse, but we're not going to sit quietly and let it do so otherwise people might think that everyone is behind this Mayhem.

Now, before you pick apart the context and try to argue about whether or not the plane is/isn't on fire, I'm just explaining it from our point of view. From our perspective, the plane is on fire. If you can't handle differing perspectives, then there's no point trying to hold any sort of debate.

I'd love the Brexit thing to be a success, because we're committed to it, but all of my experience of politics and negotiations has left me pretty cynical to the idea that we'll be close to as well off as we currently are.

And it's also worth re-iterating that essentially half of the voting electorate (give or take a pretty small statistical error margin of 2%) wanted to remain in the EU, so you're dismissing a lot of people as blinkered unpatriots.

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd say it's more like being on a aeroplane that's on fire and looking around baffled when the crew are adamant that it'll be fine because it's raining 200 miles ahead and that might put it out.

We don't want the UK to collapse, but we're not going to sit quietly and let it do so otherwise people might think that everyone is behind this Mayhem.

Now, before you pick apart the context and try to argue about whether or not the plane is/isn't on fire, I'm just explaining it from our point of view. From our perspective, the plane is on fire. If you can't handle differing perspectives, then there's no point trying to hold any sort of debate.

I'd love the Brexit thing to be a success, because we're committed to it, but all of my experience of politics and negotiations has left me pretty cynical to the idea that we'll be close to as well off as we currently are.

And it's also worth re-iterating that essentially half of the voting electorate (give or take a pretty small statistical error margin of 2%) wanted to remain in the EU, so you're dismissing a lot of people as blinkered unpatriots.

Just trying to square off your analogy of the 'plane being on fire' with the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.
Indulge me and define what you mean by the plane being on fire and is it currently on fire or is it about to catch light some time in the future.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

Just trying to square off your analogy of the 'plane being on fire' with the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.
Indulge me and define what you mean by the plane being on fire and is it currently on fire or is it about to catch light some time in the future.

Seems pretty clear that to any rational person....

- 20% currency devaluation
- Factory gate inflation shooting up - now at 15%
- CPI, whilst still low, is on a rapidly climbing trajectory
- Employment growth slowing
- and significant companies re-evaluating their presence in the UK

.... should at the very least be setting off smoke alarms in the cockpit - even if the pilot has not yet had to broadcast a Mayday call.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Seems pretty clear that to any rational person....

- 20% currency devaluation
- Factory gate inflation shooting up - now at 15%
- CPI, whilst still low, is on a rapidly climbing trajectory
- Employment growth slowing
- and significant companies re-evaluating their presence in the UK

.... should at the very least be setting off smoke alarms in the cockpit - even if the pilot has not yet had to broadcast a Mayday call.

So its irrational not to see the UK as a 'plane on fire' yet you go on to proffer that it may only be the smoke alarms in the cockpit?
As usual Hamish, clear as mud!:)

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Seems pretty clear that to any rational person....

- 20% currency devaluation
- Factory gate inflation shooting up - now at 15%
- CPI, whilst still low, is on a rapidly climbing trajectory
- Employment growth slowing
- and significant companies re-evaluating their presence in the UK

.... should at the very least be setting off smoke alarms in the cockpit - even if the pilot has not yet had to broadcast a Mayday call.

Maybe you are applying Trump's 'alternative truth' a little too quickly.

Sapphire

Herzlos wrote: »

And it's also worth re-iterating that essentially half of the voting electorate (give or take a pretty small statistical error margin of 2%) wanted to remain in the EU, so you're dismissing a lot of people as blinkered unpatriots.

Isn't that the same as what happens in democratic elections?

I wouldn't say that a lot of people are being dismissed as 'blinkered unpatriotic' – just that some people are attempting to scupper a democratic vote (it would create chaos in our country, in my view, if that happened), and doing everything they can to go against democracy. The 'pitfalls' of leaving the EU were clearly set out (and even massively exaggerated), yet a majority of people still voted out. Note also that people who voted Leave have been called much worse things than 'blinkered unpatriotic' – against them there have been accusations of stupidity, rascism, 'didn't know what you were voting for' ad nauseum.

And I still don't get it. Given the chaos there is on the Continent, the unbelievably aggressive and hostile reactions to Britain and our democratic vote by EU bureaucrats and the like, and the potential for many, many more people to try to come to the UK because of the failing economies in the Eurozone (thus detrimentally affecting our already severely creaking services and causing resentment in the resident population), why do some people still want to be in the EU? I mean, there have been plenty of voices not just in the UK, but outside our country as well saying that the EU will fail. Is it that some people just have a vested interest in the UK being in the EU (whether it's because they have EU pensions, like Clegg and Kinnock, personal financial interests linked to the EU, or are schills, etc.)?

Fine if people have opposing views, but to go against democracy in the way some people are doing makes our nation look rather stupid, incompetent and feeble – it is embarrassing, quite frankly, and detrimental to our standing in the world. :cool:

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Tromking wrote: »

Just trying to square off your analogy of the 'plane being on fire' with the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year.
Indulge me and define what you mean by the plane being on fire and is it currently on fire or is it about to catch light some time in the future.

Quite so, and that was my intended my point.
Exactly WHAT in FACT (not ideas or "projections") is "on fire"?
So far the skies are blue with only occasional cloud but we have been warned there may (just may, mind) be some turbulence somewhere ahead.

As for:

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd love the Brexit thing to be a success, because we're committed to it, but all of my experience of politics and negotiations has left me pretty cynical to the idea that we'll be close to as well off as we currently are.

And it's also worth re-iterating that essentially half of the voting electorate (give or take a pretty small statistical error margin of 2%) wanted to remain in the EU, so you're dismissing a lot of people as blinkered unpatriots.

Where is the evidence of you wanting Brexit to be a success?
All we hear are facile arguments and nit-picking negativity, like your analogy of the plane now mysteriously being on fire.
Actions speak louder than words.

As for the "half the electorate" part I wonder if you have such a difficulty with comprehension as it appears?
Firstly because I very clearly say " it certainly applies to posters within these forums" which - unless I am very much mistaken, as must MSE's own membership numbers be - can in no way be interpreted as being around "half the voting electorate" as you describe them.
Or are you implying that this half of the electorate agree with your jaded viewpoint as in these forums?

Also note just as one example post # 15701 and what I say therein:

Indeed on both sides, leave and remain, it really does appear that most are accepting there will be difficulties ahead even if some are more stoic than others. Also that most are capable of intelligently discerning truth from lies, and possibilities from propaganda.

To me it is very sad that some posters still refuse to realise that "discussion" of such a negative manner such as that which is posted by some posters (yourself included) has been having the opposite effect to that which you appear to hope for; people by now are more and more often seeing through the negative propaganda and recognising it for what it is.
Which is nothing better than childish foot-stamping because things are not going the way you wanted them to.

Ronaldo_Mconaldo

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd say it's more like being on a aeroplane that's on fire and looking around baffled when the crew are adamant that it'll be fine because it's raining 200 miles ahead and that might put it out.

We don't want the UK to collapse, but we're not going to sit quietly and let it do so otherwise people might think that everyone is behind this Mayhem.

Now, before you pick apart the context and try to argue about whether or not the plane is/isn't on fire, I'm just explaining it from our point of view. From our perspective, the plane is on fire. If you can't handle differing perspectives, then there's no point trying to hold any sort of debate.

I'd love the Brexit thing to be a success, because we're committed to it, but all of my experience of politics and negotiations has left me pretty cynical to the idea that we'll be close to as well off as we currently are.

And it's also worth re-iterating that essentially half of the voting electorate (give or take a pretty small statistical error margin of 2%) wanted to remain in the EU, so you're dismissing a lot of people as blinkered unpatriots.

This analogy is just wonderful. To continue with your analogy, if the plane is on fire, someone like you would be the one running around panicing and coming up with all kinds of reasons why the pilot of those in charge's ideas won't work whilst obviously not coming up with any kind of solution of your own. Obviously the pilot is too busy doing their important work trying to save the day, much too busy to tell you to shut up and sit down and stop crying so on you go, attempting to enlighten everyone else when really you just need to let those in charge do their job.

Conrad

Latest YOUGOV polling;

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/



On Tuesday Theresa May set out the sort of Brexit she wants to achieve in Britain's negotiations with the remainder of the EU.


May said she would take Britain out of the single market and customs union, but try to agree a new free trade and customs deal with the EU.


Our initial polling, conducted on Tuesday night and Wednesday, suggests the announcement went down well.


All of the key negotiating points we asked about met with majority support. Most were uncontroversial and supported by both Remain and Leave voters: control of immigration, an open border with Ireland, guaranteeing the rights of existing EU immigrants and continuing to work with the EU on security matters all received over 70% support.


The two more divisive issues were the exact trading relationship between Britain and the EU. A majority of people supported Britain leaving the single market (57%) and the customs union (56%), but there was a contrast in opinion between Leave and Remain voters. A vast majority of Leave voters approved of both, Remain voters were opposed to leaving the single market and evenly split over the customs union.




People won't judge Brexit on the minutiae of the deal (unless they actually work in exporting goods to Europe, most people do not - quite reasonably - spend much time trying to understand the precise details of our EU trade relationship).


People will judge Brexit on the overall package, on whether it feels like a good deal for Britain or not. By that measure, Theresa May's announcement was a success - by 55% to 19% people think the Brexit she described would be good for Britain, 62% think it would respect the referendum result and by 53% to 26% people say that they would be happy with the outcome.


While the British people support the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is asking for they don’t necessarily think it is the sort of arrangement that other EU countries will agree to, or the sort that May will end up bringing back from Brussels. By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not.
And what happens then? Asked about May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" 48% of the public agree, compared to 17% who would rather have a bad deal than no deal at all. 55% of people said that May should be prepared to walk away. It is a different question whether the public would actually be so sanguine about May coming back from negotiations empty handed. Our previous polls have suggested that less than a third of people think it would be good for Britain to leave the EU without any new trade deal.
Theresa May has passed her first Brexit test: she has managed to define a form of Brexit that the majority of the country can get behind. Getting the rest of Europe to agree to those proposals may be a more difficult challenge.