If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't want full 'access' to the club : just trade.

But that's not how the club works. If you want full market access then you need to take the whole package.

Maybe they'll let us have full market access for a few concessions, but that's certainly going to include paying far more in member fees than we do now.

What do we offer the EU27 to get them to agree to us having full trade access?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

But that's not how the club works. If you want full market access then you need to take the whole package.

Maybe they'll let us have full market access for a few concessions, but that's certainly going to include paying far more in member fees than we do now.

What do we offer the EU27 to get them to agree to us having full trade access?

we offer them the economic benefits of mutually beneficial trade : they may or may not chose to make the people of EU27 economically poorer for the 'other' membership benefits.

Herzlos

Ah ok, we're going to hope they think we're doing them a favour.

What concessions do you think we should accept to get the free trade deal?

Though tbh I don't know if there's a way out of it; If we get a crap deal and suffer for it, the EU will suffer anyway. But then if we get a good deal and still suffer for it, the EU will still suffer. I think we've potentially killed the eurozone, and will be at the back of the queue when it comes to picking up the pieces.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Ah ok, we're going to hope they think we're doing them a favour.

no I don't think we are doing them a favour : its just I think that trade benefits both parties.

What concessions do you think we should accept to get the free trade deal?

free trade in return to make them economically richer

Though tbh I don't know if there's a way out of it; If we get a crap deal and suffer for it, the EU will suffer anyway. But then if we get a good deal and still suffer for it, the EU will still suffer. I think we've potentially killed the eurozone, and will be at the back of the queue when it comes to picking up the pieces.

no idea why we have any impact on the eurozone as such : it is a disaster what will be written about in future text books with amazement like flat earth theories.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see that Poland's foreign minister has called Donald Tusk an "icon of evil and stupidity".

“We are a country that wants to be really active in discussions over the future of the EU, Brexit and the UK’s relations with Europe, but on these issue Mr Tusk has done nothing to help us,” said Mr Waszczykowski. “He is an icon of evil and stupidity.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/03/polands-foreign-minister-calls-eus-donald-tusk-icon-evil-stupidity/
It looks like Polish/EU relations may be coming to a head.

Also, in France today Marine Le Pen is suggesting that Euro Zone countries should leave the Euro and revert to national currencies with a "common currency" structure.

"The ECU existed alongside a national currency," Le Pen said. "A national currency co-existing with a common currency would not have any consequences on the French's daily life,"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-le-pen-euro-idUKKBN14O18U?il=0

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Ah ok, we're going to hope they think we're doing them a favour.

What concessions do you think we should accept to get the free trade deal?

Though tbh I don't know if there's a way out of it; If we get a crap deal and suffer for it, the EU will suffer anyway. But then if we get a good deal and still suffer for it, the EU will still suffer. I think we've potentially killed the eurozone, and will be at the back of the queue when it comes to picking up the pieces.

You essentially think they want to hamper thier trade, Increase thier unemployment, upset the key local intelligence and military power and ensure we buy more from non EU nations

Yup makes total sense.....

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

You essentially think they want to hamper thier trade, Increase thier unemployment, upset the key local intelligence and military power and ensure we buy more from non EU nations

Yup makes total sense.....

Makes as much sense as them essentially unravelling* the entire EU to let a small trading partner continue to trade without taking part in the EU.

Several countries want our banking sector, several countries would be happy that we stopped competing with them. Some will be glad to see the back of us.

As I keep coming back to, if we're at a standoff between the impossible and the immovable, who has got the most to lose by dropping down to WTO terms?

We lose customs union access to about 45% of our export market, and potentially 9% of our GDP from the banking sector.
They lose customs union access to about 7% of their export market, and access to our now crippled banking sector. Plenty of stubborn smaller EU27 states will export even less to us, but have the power to screw us anyway.

So why is the EU going to accept this offer?


*Because if the EU agrees to this proposition, then everyone else will ask for the same thing the next day, no-one will pay in to running anything and everything will unravel.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Makes as much sense as them essentially unravelling* the entire EU to let a small trading partner continue to trade without taking part in the EU.

Small trading partner?

The UK is the the EU's biggest single export market (around 21%).

Which is bigger than the USA and Japan combined ( 2nd and 3rd largest)

At least research the topic fully. :idea:

Then there's the tourism trade........

Herzlos

They'll definitely notice a hit in trade if we can't strike a deal with them, but there won't be that many job losses.

Can we honestly say we'll come out of it better than they will?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

They'll definitely notice a hit in trade if we can't strike a deal with them, but there won't be that many job losses.

Can we honestly say we'll come out of it better than they will?

I would appear to me that the most realistic outcome would be that both will come out of it badly if no deal is done.

When you talk about the EU trade with the UK in general you're referencing Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Holland, without mentioning them. We do little trade with the new countries and they with us. Those who pay the most into the EU coffers pay based on their GDP (if you recall we were asked to pay more recently due to our growth). So if these main contributors take a hit disproportionately to the rest of the EU then they will consequently be paying less into the pot to be shared out amongst the nations who take from the pot.

It's not as straight forward as it might seem.

Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, etc... all have something to lose if the net contributors lose out. We'll be going, so the pot is already smaller, any further alteration to the amount that is paid into it and their share of the wealth will decrease accordingly.

I don't think we'll see any smaller countries telling the net contributors what to do and how to do it when it comes to Brexit negotiations, they'll generally do as they're politely advised to do. Effectively we're bargaining with the net contributors.