If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Nope, in this context, someone refusing to engage with the advantages of independence and filtering out the fact we hold many aces and that EU core nations wont engage in self-harm.


Core national concerns like your citizens ability to carry on selling his wares to the UK, will always trump the abstract goals of the Brussels, technocratic dreamer set.


Not once have I seen you guys recognise we hold considerable trump cards in the form of the military and INTELLIGENCE capability we put at Europes disposal, not once.

Never came up, of course it is acknowledged.

There are probably many others that could be acknowledged: the English Language; our universities; etc

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

They'll definitely notice a hit in trade if we can't strike a deal with them, but there won't be that many job losses.

Can we honestly say we'll come out of it better than they will?

No, we could all be losers, THATS THE POINT.


Bare in mind core contributors such as France have endured a very poor economic journey since the crash, with high unemployment, the last thing they need is trade disruption


In the end the leavers feel national interest will likely trump Brussels technocratic federal ambition

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

Never came up, of course it is acknowledged.

There are probably many others that could be acknowledged: the English Language; our universities; etc

UK military and intelligence prowess has come up as an ace as long as you've not filtered out these facts


As you intimate, we have other aces.


I don't believe us to be weak petitioners.

CKhalvashi

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38511058

Le Pen has seen sense and u-turned on leaving the EU, but does want to leave the Euro and get some other exceptions.

I still hope she doesn't get elected, but a sensible decision from France's Farage.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I would appear to me that the most realistic outcome would be that both will come out of it badly if no deal is done.

Very much so. The EU is, just like the UK, stuck between a rock and a hard place. The only options they have are: Stick to the EU basis, and take the economic hit whilst we leave and everything re-adjusts, or allow us our own way and deal with the fall out from the other 27 about the deal we got, give them their own deals and watch the EU dissolve. There's no way either of us can walk away from a Brexit deal without harm of some sort.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

No, we could all be losers, THATS THE POINT.

No. The point is that we won't both lose equally. In the worst case scenario, no trade at all, the EU will suffer quite badly and limp on, whilst we're totally devastated.

We both stand to lose a huge amount, and will gain little, but to say that the stakes are the same on each side in just naive.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

In the worst case scenario, no trade at all, the EU will suffer quite badly and limp on, whilst we're totally devastated.

No.
Both will suffer, true, but the UK will certainly not be "devastated" - in fact it will in all probability be the EU that will be devastated (if it exists by then, even).

Why?
Because (as has been said before in this thread yet you seem to choose to ignore) the vast majority of EU purchases made by the UK are concentrated in a few EU countries.

These countries will suffer greatly.
The workers that will have no jobs will object, naturally enough.
Do you honestly believe that these who would be so affected will be grateful to the EU for causing them such harm?

As just one example (but there are many) here is what Bavaria thinks:

Ilse Aigner, the Bavarian economy minister, said that Brexit poses a "high risk" to the economy and argued that the UK is one of the "most important trading partners for Bavaria", one of Germany's most prosperous states.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/25/germany-needs-post-brexit-trade-deal-britain-minimise-economy/

What about the recent Irish concerns re: the EU, will you ignore those?

Or do you think the French (already disenchanted with the EU) will not react strongly should the EU cut off their main trade in wine and cheese for example?
Or the Spanish, if they should lose their largest source of holidaymakers or buyer for fruit & veg?
Or any one of quite a few major importers from these EU countries into the UK?

No, if Brexit must indeed be "hard" - and it looks like only the EU bureaucrats will make that decision - we all suffer, true.
But it may well be the end for the EU if they take a hard stance.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

Very much so. The EU is, just like the UK, stuck between a rock and a hard place. The only options they have are: Stick to the EU basis, and take the economic hit whilst we leave and everything re-adjusts, or allow us our own way and deal with the fall out from the other 27 about the deal we got, give them their own deals and watch the EU dissolve. There's no way either of us can walk away from a Brexit deal without harm of some sort.

Giving us a trade deal doesn't mean we get all of the other benefits that the EU may bring. The other 27 countries still have good reasons to stay if they like things like FOM, pooled research & dev, EU investment, etc.. They're not all going to pull out because we got a deal that maintains jobs here and in the EU. That's another scare tactic in my opinion. The biggest risk to the EU at the moment is the abject failure of the top brass to listen to the people they supposedly represent.

The lurch to the right across Europe should be sounding air raid sirens in tight enclosed spaces within the EU's upper echelons, there doesn't appear to be much reaction though.

We'll get a deal, but we'll be asked to pay I expect so that the net contributors don't have to foot the bill to subsidise the rest of the EU. The thing about being outside the EU but being able to trade freely with it is that you cannot access EU investment funds, so unless France, Germany, et al decide they've had enough of subsidising other countries the EU will carry on as normal unless the political top brass continue to ignore the everyday person and their concerns for ideological virtue signalling exercises.

Herzlos

I can't imagine how we'll see less devastation than the EU, even if it is concentrated among the biggest players. We'll lose our financial industry and almost half of our import and export markets. Potentially we'll also lose or see major price hikes in electricity (some imported from France) and gas (some imported from Norway?), and any goods which are currently hauled via road/rail across the EU.

I'm not sure there's anything we have that the EU needs to run, or we're the dominant buyer of any industry?

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Giving us a trade deal doesn't mean we get all of the other benefits that the EU may bring. The other 27 countries still have good reasons to stay if they like things like FOM, pooled research & dev, EU investment, etc.. They're not all going to pull out because we got a deal that maintains jobs here and in the EU. That's another scare tactic in my opinion. The biggest risk to the EU at the moment is the abject failure of the top brass to listen to the people they supposedly represent.

I agree, but the proposed deal, as far as I understand it is:

1. No FoM
2. No EU maintenance payments
3. Full customs market access
4. CoL Passporting
5. No deference to EU laws

We're essentially asking for all the best bits of the EU without any of the other bits, which would give us a much better deal than everyone else, whilst expecting them to foot the bill. We seem to already have the best deal (rebate on maintenance payments, no Shengen, no EUR).

IF we got that deal, the EU would open the floodgates to everyone else wanting the same deal, and thus the EU ceases to be.

However, that may allow everyone to reset and go back to separate currencies with no closer ties than customs/financial links, and that may be acceptable to most people.

Then, gradually over time, we can start re-introducing all of the things people claim they don't want once they realise how useful they are :beer:

I have no doubts that we'll establish a trade deal - it's in everyone's favour. But it's not going to the trade deal Clapton or Conrad think we're going to get. At minimum we'll be paying into the EU, following applicable EU regulations, and allowing some form of FoM.