If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

MOODY’S ASSESMENT OF CITY PROSPECTS;

In a boost to the City, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service have largely dismissed concerns that London would be unable to withstand the consequences of the UK leaving the single market, arguing the loss of passports would be “manageable” for most banks and financial services firms.


While analysts at Moody’s agreed that leaving the EEA was likely to result in the forfeit of passports, they argued that the EU’s forthcoming Mifid 2 directive on financial services regulation, which comes into force in 2018, would make up for much of the loss. Under Mifid 2, the UK will have to adopt an equivalent regulatory regime to the EU, potentially giving firms an alternative access point to the single market


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/banks-can-cope-with-loss-of-eu-passports-after-brexit-says-moody/
..........................................




Equivalence – an alternative to Passporting.
Brass Plating > London Banks could in the absence of passporting / equivalence simply open tiny offices in Ireland, but retain the significant business in London
(See Alistair Heath on Daily Politics 19/09/2016 @ 12.10)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

And for the zillionth time that's still not been in dispute.

Surely you must appreciate (since people with actual experience keep telling you) that the trade deal we have with the EU is better than the one we have from the US?

I see huge imports into the EU from non EU nations, SM membership is vastly over rated and as we keep saying the currency movement has wiped out any would be WTO tariffs on US (not the EU), 3 TIMES OVER, plus we wont be paying £25million per day club fee


UK / EU trade will not be hampered as I keep saying to you ad-infinitum, and yes I am sure of this

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

MOODY’S ASSESMENT OF CITY PROSPECTS;

In a boost to the City, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service have largely dismissed concerns that London would be unable to withstand the consequences of the UK leaving the single market, arguing the loss of passports would be “manageable” for most banks and financial services firms.


While analysts at Moody’s agreed that leaving the EEA was likely to result in the forfeit of passports, they argued that the EU’s forthcoming Mifid 2 directive on financial services regulation, which comes into force in 2018, would make up for much of the loss. Under Mifid 2, the UK will have to adopt an equivalent regulatory regime to the EU, potentially giving firms an alternative access point to the single market


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/banks-can-cope-with-loss-of-eu-passports-after-brexit-says-moody/
..........................................




Equivalence – an alternative to Passporting.
Brass Plating > London Banks could in the absence of passporting / equivalence simply open tiny offices in Ireland, but retain the significant business in London
(See Alistair Heath on Daily Politics 19/09/2016 @ 12.10)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo

So this equivalence idea is that we provide regulations akin to MIFID2 and that gives us access?

That report still claims there will be a lot of work to get back to where we are, whether that's through moving staff, brass plating or equivalence. It's still going to be a negative, but yes, we may be able to keep an operational banking sector.

Conrad wrote: »

I see huge imports into the EU from non EU nations, SM membership is vastly over rated and as we keep saying the currency movement has wiped out any would be WTO tariffs on US (not the EU), 3 TIMES OVER, plus we wont be paying £25million per day club fee


UK / EU trade will not be hampered as I keep saying to you ad-infinitum, and yes I am sure of this

I give up. Lets see what actually happens, eh?

mrginge

I bet Christmas was a laugh a minute round Herzlos' house.

Actually no I don't.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

I bet Christmas was a laugh a minute round Herzlos' house.

Nah it wasn't, everyone was ill, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't my cooking!

Apologies for not being optimistic enough about what's going to happen.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

I genuinely can't think of any deal the UK can come up with that they'll be able to spin as a victory though, except if the EU agrees to the cake-and-eat-it approach.

This isn't a war it's a negotiation. Why would the UK want to a spin on matters. For that matter who is the UK. Other than ourselves.

CKhalvashi

Herzlos wrote: »

I agree, but the proposed deal, as far as I understand it is:

1. No FoM
2. No EU maintenance payments
3. Full customs market access
4. CoL Passporting
5. No deference to EU laws

We're essentially asking for all the best bits of the EU without any of the other bits, which would give us a much better deal than everyone else, whilst expecting them to foot the bill. We seem to already have the best deal (rebate on maintenance payments, no Shengen, no EUR).

IF we got that deal, the EU would open the floodgates to everyone else wanting the same deal, and thus the EU ceases to be.

However, that may allow everyone to reset and go back to separate currencies with no closer ties than customs/financial links, and that may be acceptable to most people.

Then, gradually over time, we can start re-introducing all of the things people claim they don't want once they realise how useful they are :beer:

I have no doubts that we'll establish a trade deal - it's in everyone's favour. But it's not going to the trade deal Clapton or Conrad think we're going to get. At minimum we'll be paying into the EU, following applicable EU regulations, and allowing some form of FoM.

We are going to get a deal that is only going to be bad for us, along the lines of your thinking, I think.

FoM and Customs Union access are 2 of the most important parts of being in the EU, and equally important for whatever deal we reach. Product safety regulations and comsumer rights are more important than an unregulated market too.

The EU is not going to die, and is in a far stronger negotiating position as we import more than we export and it will hit the pound, ensuring the EU27 don't lose out but we do, twice.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

The EU is not going to die, and is in a far stronger negotiating position as we import more than we export and it will hit the pound, ensuring the EU27 don't lose out but we do, twice.

You're joking, right?

We buy more from the EU than they buy from us.
You said so too, so you recognise this at least.
Yet you somehow think that "hard Brexit" would effect the UK more - and further, that the EU are somehow in a stronger position?
That, frankly, is utter drivel.
I suggest you re-read post #14896.

Because you're either choosing to ignore what I say earlier and prefer to live in some sort of Lewis Carroll-type of delusional "Wonderland", or you are just trolling if you do not at least see the possibility that the EU is at very real risk if "hard Brexit" and unrealistic tariffs result.

In fact, the EU are already between a proverbial rock and a hard place and will find survival difficult no matter what course is chosen.

Marine Le Pen will encourage the French to reassert sovereignty - French like that idea we know already.
Explain how you think the EU could cope with that but not a "soft Brexit"?

I think we need to renegotiate with the EU because I want to see French sovereignty restored in France, supported by a referendum.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-france-renegotiate-eu-membership-european-union-front-national-leader-far-right-french-a7511566.html

"The EU is not going to die" eh?
You do realise that playing all three of the monkeys at once will not prevent that?
Which is why many great minds think otherwise.

cogito

CKhalvashi wrote: »

We are going to get a deal that is only going to be bad for us, along the lines of your thinking, I think.

FoM and Customs Union access are 2 of the most important parts of being in the EU, and equally important for whatever deal we reach. Product safety regulations and comsumer rights are more important than an unregulated market too.

The EU is not going to die, and is in a far stronger negotiating position as we import more than we export and it will hit the pound, ensuring the EU27 don't lose out but we do, twice.

We voted to leave the EU which must mean leaving the Customs Union (funny how it used to be a Common Market) and stopping freedom of movement. Anything else means remaining subject to EU diktats.

The EU may not die but it cannot survive in its present form. Brussels is in full panic mode over the rise of so-called populism but they still think that more Europe is what is needed when anyone with a grain of sense can see that that is what got them in the smelly stuff in the first place.

Its negotiating position is really not all that strong. There are too many separate interests pulling in different directions. The majority of our trade with the EU is with four members; most barely count and it will be the EU members with the most to lose who will determine the outcome.

TrickyTree83

CKhalvashi wrote: »

We are going to get a deal that is only going to be bad for us, along the lines of your thinking, I think.

FoM and Customs Union access are 2 of the most important parts of being in the EU, and equally important for whatever deal we reach. Product safety regulations and comsumer rights are more important than an unregulated market too.

The EU is not going to die, and is in a far stronger negotiating position as we import more than we export and it will hit the pound, ensuring the EU27 don't lose out but we do, twice.

Have to agree with MSJ.

FoM isn't a business requirement. The core business requirement is the ability for the people business need to come here, and for the people business need to go there to be able to do so. If a visa system allows that - no need for FoM. That's straightforward, yes there's some extra paperwork, perhaps a stipend in additional cost. But ultimately you'll still be able to do what you need to do with planning and organisation.

Retaining the Customs Union would prevent us from making trade deals unilaterally as I understand. So it's number 1 on my list of what we need to pull out from. Electronic customs declarations and software can ease the paperwork burden here. Again you're still able to do what you want to do provided you have the sufficient paperwork.

The two most important parts as you see them are two of the least important for myself and I dare say many other people. I think it's important that we continue to trade, and we get the best possible access to the single market for our financial and insurance services. But the movement of people and customs harmonisation - no. Do you say that from a selfish point of view? i.e. are you sending products and/or people across the EU?

The EU is under massive strain politically right now. Probably the worst it has ever seen. I don't think it will die, just because I don't think there is a high probability of

- Le Penn winning, France leaving
- 5Star winning, Italy leaving
- SD winning, Sweden leaving
- PPV winning, Holland leaving, etc...

However if they do come to pass, consider it dead.

Then there's the negotiating position. Why is the EU's negotiating position better?