If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

I can't imagine how we'll see less devastation than the EU, even if it is concentrated among the biggest players. We'll lose our financial industry and almost half of our import and export markets. Potentially we'll also lose or see major price hikes in electricity (some imported from France) and gas (some imported from Norway?), and any goods which are currently hauled via road/rail across the EU.

I'm not sure there's anything we have that the EU needs to run, or we're the dominant buyer of any industry?

The probability of zero trade between EU27 and the UK is less likely than world war 3
something you may wish to plan for but few sane people will follow you : Trump's USA maybe would be a suitable location for your nuclear bunker.

There is a huge difference in (say) tariffs of a few percent with totally malicious attemps at punishment.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
I have no doubts that we'll establish a trade deal - it's in everyone's favour. But it's not going to the trade deal Clapton or Conrad think we're going to get. At minimum we'll be paying into the EU, following applicable EU regulations, and allowing some form of FoM.

You already know the answer.

The 'deal' which they eventually agree on will be one which the various leaders can go back to their own voters and announce as a 'victory'.

The real analysis will come from the longer term impacts of some of the fine print.

Maybe the UK leaving helps the EU in it's further integration goals anyway? That seems to be the only solution they are offering to resolve some of their problems.

Conrad

Funny how during the referendum campaign the Remainers told us Norway was the worst of all worlds, democracy by fax, and yet now lots of them advocate this very thing.


Goes to show the lack of clarity of thought

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

We're essentially asking for all the best bits of the EU without any of the other bits, which would give us a much better deal than everyone else,

Canada + will be good, and not at all unreasonable. The EU sells us 10x more than it does Canada, not to mention all the other benefits we provide in terms of security etc


We are already fully aligned with the EU and trading freely, so there is no need for lengthy negotiation on trade.

Conrad

CKhalvashi wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38511058

Le Pen has seen sense and u-turned on leaving the EU, but does want to leave the Euro and get some other exceptions.

I still hope she doesn't get elected, but a sensible decision from France's Farage.

Seems to me that she plans a final destination somewhat similar to the original Common Market based on trade.


The 'liberal' federal dreams are over I suspect. Italy and Greece for example would be able to devalue and bring about much faster recovery, given more economic autonomy.

Herzlos

I genuinely can't think of any deal the UK can come up with that they'll be able to spin as a victory though, except if the EU agrees to the cake-and-eat-it approach.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Funny how during the referendum campaign the Remainers told us Norway was the worst of all worlds, democracy by fax, and yet now lots of them advocate this very thing.

I don't think anyone has said Norway was a good model, even Norway warned us against it. However, since we're leaving now, Norway is one of the best options left. There's no change in mind or unclear thinking; it is a crap deal, but it's less crap than most of the deals that have been floated.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Canada + will be good, and not at all unreasonable. The EU sells us 10x more than it does Canada, not to mention all the other benefits we provide in terms of security etc


We are already fully aligned with the EU and trading freely, so there is no need for lengthy negotiation on trade.

What +'s do we add though and what do we offer in exchange?

We need at minimum passporting and customs union to try and stay afloat.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I can't imagine how we'll see less devastation than the EU, even if it is concentrated among the biggest players. We'll lose our financial industry and almost half of our import and export markets.

Equivalence allows non EU service providers to trade into the EU as if they were EU providers. In any event lots of UK passport holders don't even use the system, but export to the EU none the less ( under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID2) Directive financial services companies from countries such as the US, Hong Kong and Singapore, whose financial regulatory systems are deemed to have ‘regulatory equivalence’, as would the UK’s).


Furthermore the City is the Banker to Europe, and breakdown of the City would be a disaster for the limping EU economy (I cannot stress enough how a collapse of the city would harm the EU).


Then there's Europe's massive reliance on fish catch from our waters.


For the zillionth time we have NO problems buying masses of export from Japan, the US and elsewhere that have NO TRADE DEAL. This idea our business will collapse is just infantile.


Under WTO rules we collect double what the entire EU would (split between 27), another benefit. WTO tariffs are already wiped out 3 times over by the currency drop.


We are not a weak petitioner, the day you understand this is the day you finally wake up to Brexit being a grand opportunity, not the best of a bad fist


http://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/UserStorage/pdf/Pdf reports/160930-CSJJ4877_Brexit_essay_collection_0916_WEB.pdf


The issue of passports was explored again. It was pointed out financial passports are two way – the rest of the EU needs them to get special access to the big London markets

The importance of passports Is greatly exaggerated. There are few examples of large scale successful passported products. Where there is, as with UCITs, they are almost wholly established in Luxembourg or Dublin for tax reasons, so London is not the place of registration.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

For the zillionth time we have NO problems buying masses of export from Japan, the US and elsewhere that have NO TRADE DEAL. This idea our business will collapse is just infantile.

And for the zillionth time that's still not been in dispute.

Surely you must appreciate (since people with actual experience keep telling you) that the trade deal we have with the EU is better than the one we have from the US?