If we vote for Brexit what happens

LHW99

I think you underestimate the paperwork burden of not having FoM or a customs union

IMO they cannot be much greater than many current paperwork requirements for the chemical industry, which have to be completed even if a company will never sell outside the UK. Some of which are effectively requiring every company using the same material set to undertake parallel and extensive testing, resulting in massive duplication of work and expense.

CLAPTON

sann420 wrote: »

Name the world class products that Britain produces then ?

As far as I know its only the banks.

boasting about ignorance is not an attractive characteristic

Moby

sann420 wrote: »

Once Britain is out of the EU, the remaining EU countries will try their best to get the banks in London to move to an EU state. Its common sense as it means loads of jobs and loads of taxes. Since they are a union and we are alone with no say in what laws they make. Just a few regulations here and there would mean the big banks will suddenly realise that doing business from London will cost 100m more pa than if they move to Frankfurt or Dublin. So they will do long term cost analysis and start moving.

Traditionally every financial institution wants to base themselves in London because of prestige but also herd mentality. In this day and age of internet there is no reason why they cannot scatter their business across multiple EU states and still function seamlessly.

London isn't exactly the cheapest place to do business any way. The basic jobs will probably go to cheaper Eastern/Southern Europe and highly skilled ones will be happily taken over by Northern Europeans. The people with skills that they don't have readily available in those destinations can easily be issued work permits. Never under estimate the power of a 30% bonus or payrise to entice the Londoners to an EU destination.

Countries like Germany may not like taking the hit on car sales initially but once all the dust settles in 5 years or so they will be more prosperous with more jobs and a whole new industry to work with. They will think long term future and not just car sales this year.

Another thing is that Germans produce quality products and therefore can command a premium. People who buy their cars are also wealthier any way. I don't see most people wanting a Merc downgrading to a Nissan because the Merc just became 10% more expensive.

On the other hand what world class products does Britain produce that it will still be able to convince buyers to purchase even after they become more expensive??? :eek:

Yep good post that. Our economy post Brexit will suffer a long but slow decline. Day after day evidence will be produced to prove otherwise but long term I think your view will be borne out. Access to the single market on terms no less favourable than those at present is highly unlikely.......accepting this and being honest that trade deals dont just happen and you already have the basis for our decline.

CKhalvashi

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Have to agree with MSJ.

FoM isn't a business requirement. The core business requirement is the ability for the people business need to come here, and for the people business need to go there to be able to do so. If a visa system allows that - no need for FoM. That's straightforward, yes there's some extra paperwork, perhaps a stipend in additional cost. But ultimately you'll still be able to do what you need to do with planning and organisation.

FoM is a business requirement in my case.

I've already threatened to cut any UK plans that are mid-implementation unless I'm guaranteed it won't be a pain in the backside. The UK side is about protecting up to 400 jobs in a supply network that's heavily underfunded at present and there is further risk after 2020 when the EU funding (for some) stops.

Whatever happened in the referendum, I'd have preferred to see these survive as individual businesses that can make a profit rather than those that can't, however this is going to need to be implemented (partly due to funding constraints, partly due to business reasons) over a 5-8 year period depending on how fast it moves, not overnight.

The plan, if we go ahead, is going to be full implementation by 2025. To put it simply, I don't have the money to spend on marketing a project that will only last until 2019, implement it quickly and lose the goodwill. Short term I'd be left insolvent, long term I'd be left insolvent. In terms of where the UK is now, it's well down the list of priorities.

I'm only willing to commit definitely to 1 of the 40ish individual contracts being looked into at the moment on a trial basis, in an Eastern student city.

Retaining the Customs Union would prevent us from making trade deals unilaterally as I understand. So it's number 1 on my list of what we need to pull out from. Electronic customs declarations and software can ease the paperwork burden here. Again you're still able to do what you want to do provided you have the sufficient paperwork.

Leaving the customs union will lead to lengthy waits at Dover and Calais. On a vehicle that can be carrying 100 pieces of equipment, the paperwork and time required to process this (which may result in a dead 24 hours) and the tight margins we're on could wipe our profit out completely. Contractually, any customs clearance (usually Switzerland, which isn't a target market) is our responsibility.

I'm in business to make a profit. At the planned rate of expansion and tight margins to actually get the work, it's simply not worth it if £1 doesn't buy around €1,15, as the risk against the reward becomes too great, largely as I may have commitments that I can't fill, which will cost money that isn't there (long term) to spend.

Then there's the negotiating position. Why is the EU's negotiating position better?

Because if £1 buys for example €1, add in a 20% import duty and you get something costing €1,20 for £1, so no difference (roughly) to now.

If €1 buys £1, add in a 20% import duty and you get something costing €1 for £1.20. This is 40p more than now.

The question is whether you'd pay 50% more from an import, and even if the product isn't imported, the materials used to make it probably are.

I'd take a bet with the City of London that it's likely to go further the way described above than the other way.

That's £40k for a basic spec C-Class at list price, or a very long wait for a higher spec Jag XE/basic XF, as remember exports shouldn't be affected, especially when priced in Euro to begin with.

In that example though, I don't know how many of the components for the Jags are actually British/how much of the metal is British, so the price in pounds may well go up to compensate for customs duty on the imported parts. Tata Steel in the UK and JLR are both owned by Tata, so that may create some additional work though.

Very basic analysis of my thinking at 7.30am, but you should get where I'm coming from.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

FoM is a business requirement in my case.

I've already threatened to cut any UK plans that are mid-implementation unless I'm guaranteed it won't be a pain in the backside. The UK side is about protecting up to 400 jobs in a supply network that's heavily underfunded at present and there is further risk after 2020 when the EU funding (for some) stops.

Whatever happened in the referendum, I'd have preferred to see these survive as individual businesses that can make a profit rather than those that can't, however this is going to need to be implemented (partly due to funding constraints, partly due to business reasons) over a 5-8 year period depending on how fast it moves, not overnight.

The plan, if we go ahead, is going to be full implementation by 2025. To put it simply, I don't have the money to spend on marketing a project that will only last until 2019, implement it quickly and lose the goodwill. Short term I'd be left insolvent, long term I'd be left insolvent. In terms of where the UK is now, it's well down the list of priorities.

I'm only willing to commit definitely to 1 of the 40ish individual contracts being looked into at the moment on a trial basis, in an Eastern student city.

Leaving the customs union will lead to lengthy waits at Dover and Calais. On a vehicle that can be carrying 100 pieces of equipment, the paperwork and time required to process this (which may result in a dead 24 hours) and the tight margins we're on could wipe our profit out completely. Contractually, any customs clearance (usually Switzerland, which isn't a target market) is our responsibility.

I'm in business to make a profit. At the planned rate of expansion and tight margins to actually get the work, it's simply not worth it if £1 doesn't buy around €1,15, as the risk against the reward becomes too great, largely as I may have commitments that I can't fill, which will cost money that isn't there (long term) to spend.

Because if £1 buys for example €1, add in a 20% import duty and you get something costing €1,20 for £1, so no difference (roughly) to now.

If €1 buys £1, add in a 20% import duty and you get something costing €1 for £1.20. This is 40p more than now.

The question is whether you'd pay 50% more from an import, and even if the product isn't imported, the materials used to make it probably are.

I'd take a bet with the City of London that it's likely to go further the way described above than the other way.

That's £40k for a basic spec C-Class at list price, or a very long wait for a higher spec Jag XE/basic XF, as remember exports shouldn't be affected, especially when priced in Euro to begin with.

In that example though, I don't know how many of the components for the Jags are actually British/how much of the metal is British, so the price in pounds may well go up to compensate for customs duty on the imported parts. Tata Steel in the UK and JLR are both owned by Tata, so that may create some additional work though.

Very basic analysis of my thinking at 7.30am, but you should get where I'm coming from.

are you saying that your business depends upon EU (i.e. UK taxpayer) subsidies?

CKhalvashi

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you saying that your business depends upon EU (i.e. UK taxpayer) subsidies?

I am aware that some partners across Europe are in receipt of funding, however I am unaware of any specifics and have always paid a fair market rate for any services provided.

I have never been employed by or contracted for any organisation that has received EU funding, nor have I benefitted directly or indirectly from the use of EU funds in cultural projects.

If you read the post again, I never stated otherwise.

Tromking

CLAPTON wrote: »

unemployed german car workers may not take your long term view

Indeed.
To describe the potential loss of 20% of ones car production as "taking a hit" is a bit of an understatement.

bugslet

sann420 wrote: »

Name the world class products that Britain produces then ?

As far as I know its only the banks.

Missiles

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Leaving the customs union will lead to lengthy waits at Dover and Calais. On a vehicle that can be carrying 100 pieces of equipment, the paperwork and time required to process this (which may result in a dead 24 hours) and the tight margins we're on could wipe our profit out completely. Contractually, any customs clearance (usually Switzerland, which isn't a target market) is our responsibility.

.

Don't see why. I used to ship out of Dover and Hull in the early - mid 80s and rarely used to have a delay. If the paperwork was incorrect then you were stuck.

In the mid - late 80s I worked for an Southern Irish forwarder preparing the customs paperwork for around 5-10 groupage trailers a night. The particular guy I worked for was known as the Forwarder's Forwarder because we loaded up to 11p.m. and be customs cleared on the Quay by 07.00. With no exaggeration, in the four + years I worked there, I could count on my fingers the times that a trailer didn't clear. And as I say, it was groupage.

Whilst a trailer can carry 100 different consignments, it's rare (actually I've never known it and that includes when I used to load French/german/Greek trailers). There's a lot of loading to the max with one product; even those that do groupage usually would have between 5 -15 entries on.

And that was before the system was computerised.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I am aware that some partners across Europe are in receipt of funding, however I am unaware of any specifics and have always paid a fair market rate for any services provided.

I have never been employed by or contracted for any organisation that has received EU funding, nor have I benefitted directly or indirectly from the use of EU funds in cultural projects.

If you read the post again, I never stated otherwise.

makes no sense to me
'receipt of funding' seems to me to mean taxpayers money.

CKhalvashi

CLAPTON wrote: »

makes no sense to me
'receipt of funding' seems to me to mean taxpayers money.

http://ec.europa.eu/culture/policy/cultural-creative-industries/eu-funding_en

I don't have time to debate the matter any further at the moment, as I'm about to go into a meeting. Any questions ask away, and I will answer them within reason when I have time later.