If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

You asked the question. We're both taking advantage of the position we're in due to the unpleasant things our ancestors did. The only difference is that I'm willing to admit we're in a position of relative advantage.

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

Is it of less concern than the increased automation and moving of assembly plants?

Lets be realistic, the UK buys just under 20% of German cars (I don't have actual figure to hand), so the German car market is only going to see a drop of 20% if we suddenly go to buying 0 German cars. Since they have a fairly unique position of being a low depreciating status good with a bit of a cult following, and predominantly bought on finance, their sales are unlikely to be hugely affected by a small price increase (on top of the price hike they've had due to the £ collapse).

People currently pay over the odds for German cars (though to be fair, some are cheaper on PCP than UK cars) and would never think of going elsewhere due to brand perceptions. Will they change brand over what may be as little as £20/month price difference? Will they just go to a slightly lower spec?

There are plenty of credible threats to German car industry jobs*, but I honestly don't think a poor trade deal with the UK is the biggest one. Also bear in mind that Germany can demand that part of the trade deal we get involves tariff free car trade, thus their problem is solved and we're still largely stuffed.


To be honest I think French car manufacturing have a lot more to worry about; a price hike of their French produced range (if they actually make any there now?) will likely drive customers over to the Japenese/Korean brands as they are a lot more competitive. I can see people jumping from Renault to Hyundai based on price, but I can't see people jumping from BMW to Hyundai based on price.

*Automation, offshoring, affordability, emissions, environment controls, fuel prices, city restrictions and so on.

There`s a lot more to German car exports than premium brands like BMW. Lest we forget their Fords and Vauxhall/Opels.
I wonder if Ford Europe are now regretting its decision to no longer build any models in the UK, the UK being their second biggest European market of course.
Your point re. the French is a good one and not often mentioned.I own (or not!:) )a Spanish built Renault purchased on a PCP deal, it wouldnt necessarily be Hyundai but a British Honda or Toyota I`d be looking at next time.
Like the BoE fella this morning, I wouldnt be trying to second guess the UK consumer at the moment.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

You asked the question. We're both taking advantage of the position we're in due to the unpleasant things our ancestors did. The only difference is that I'm willing to admit we're in a position of relative advantage.

The difference is in your patronising bleeding heart whilst pretending that that somehow makes you superior whilst you kick dirt in the face of the world poor. A decent person with your views would be making amends rather than 'enjoying' the 'spoils' of slavery and conquest.

vivatifosi

Regarding banking, I was reading earlier that abt 5,500 firms hold 330,000 (financial) passports. I have been trying to do some background reading about this to understand the impact. I read that Mifid II which comes in, in 2018, will be better than the current arrangements post Brexit, but I still don't really understand.

Any city peeps here that can give some background and explain what this all really means?

Mortgagefreeman

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you saying that your business depends upon EU (i.e. UK taxpayer) subsidies?

He owns a massive business empire.

I've owned at some point in the last 10 years (years/employees in brackets) Start-ups ar indicated by a *

A music publishing company (12 employees) (2012-)*
A cafe/youth cafe in the town I live, run commercially, but provides free food to homeless and discounted food to youths in the evenings (2011-)*
A PR company for large businesses, broadcast and music industry, run as a joint venture with a Dutch company (43 employees and several international broadcast contracts) (2006-)*
Recording studios (now at 28), 44 employees)* (2005-)
An event management division (56 vehicles +8 orders, 61 employees rising to 70)* (2003-)
A taxi company (currently at 6 controllers and 53 self-employed drivers) (2003-9, 2011- administration buyout). Currently for sale)
A restaurant in London (2010-)


So as you can appreciate, whilst being heavily involved in local politics and having my own family, this work takes a large amount of my time.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4006631

I don't know how he manages the time to post here!

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

There`s a lot more to German car exports than premium brands like BMW. Lest we forget their Fords and Vauxhall/Opels.

Good point about Opel. I forgot about them, but it looks like the Vauxhalls we see are UK made, so I can't see Opel being affected by any UK deal. I've no idea what'd happen regarding Ford.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

The difference is in your patronising bleeding heart whilst pretending that that somehow makes you superior whilst you kick dirt in the face of the world poor. A decent person with your views would be making amends rather than 'enjoying' the 'spoils' of slavery and conquest.

Not patronising at all. Just pointing out that we're not currently as amazing a nation as you're banking on. It's just realism.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Good point about Opel. I forgot about them, but it looks like the Vauxhalls we see are UK made, so I can't see Opel being affected by any UK deal. I've no idea what'd happen regarding Ford.

You really do need to read more.

Opel has cut output at two of its factories in anticipation of slower UK car orders following the Brexit vote.

https://www.ft.com/content/f736c2e2-660b-11e6-a08a-c7ac04ef00aa

Conrad

vivatifosi wrote: »

Regarding banking, I was reading earlier that abt 5,500 firms hold 330,000 (financial) passports. I have been trying to do some background reading about this to understand the impact. I read that Mifid II which comes in, in 2018, will be better than the current arrangements post Brexit, but I still don't really understand.

Any city peeps here that can give some background and explain what this all really means?

Essentially Mifid 2 enables third party nations to export services into the EU as if they were EU members as long as their regulatory standards are equivalent to the EU's. The UK is the world leader in financial regulation.


But do bare in mind Passporting is very over-rated - I've posted links on this before. The hystericals out there once again mis-read the importance of Passporting and forgot to factor in the EU requires passporting into the City anyway, so has a vested interested in non disruptive policy


MOODY’S ASSESMENT OF CITY PROSPECTS;


In a boost to the City, analysts at Moody’s Investors Service have largely dismissed concerns that London would be unable to withstand the consequences of the UK leaving the single market, arguing the loss of passports would be “manageable” for most banks and financial services firms.


While analysts at Moody’s agreed that leaving the EEA was likely to result in the forfeit of passports, they argued that the EU’s forthcoming Mifid 2 directive on financial services regulation, which comes into force in 2018, would make up for much of the loss. Under Mifid 2, the UK will have to adopt an equivalent regulatory regime to the EU, potentially giving firms an alternative access point to the single market


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/banks-can-cope-with-loss-of-eu-passports-after-brexit-says-moody/

wotsthat

vivatifosi wrote: »

Regarding banking, I was reading earlier that abt 5,500 firms hold 330,000 (financial) passports. I have been trying to do some background reading about this to understand the impact. I read that Mifid II which comes in, in 2018, will be better than the current arrangements post Brexit, but I still don't really understand.

Any city peeps here that can give some background and explain what this all really means?

Generali might have been able to help with this :sad: