If we vote for Brexit what happens

MobileSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

How can the MP's represent the abstentions? Please explain that to me.

By talking to their constituents? I.e. the very people the MPs are elected to represent regardless of how or if that constituent voted on a particular topic on a particular date at some point in the past...

TrickyTree83

MobileSaver wrote: »

By talking to their constituents? I.e. the very people the MPs are elected to represent regardless of how or if that constituent voted on a particular topic on a particular date at some point in the past...

They're going to run around the town hunting down everyone who didn't vote to find out how they would have voted?

They'll need to make sure they cover every single person who was eligible to vote on the day who didn't vote. Otherwise we'll still have a proportion of abstentions and we won't know the true feelings of the electorate, at least according to how you propose it works.

That's not how it works is it?

MobileSaver

beecher2 wrote: »

Many people just truly don't care so they have no wishes to consider.

I agree however I believe more probably care now than before the referendum.

ruggedtoast

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Subverting the statistics to present a point of view that supports your narrative doesn't make the statistics, or the narrative correct.

If the abstentions counted, we'd need to go back and ask them what they thought, leave or remain. But they don't count, we don't ask them, so using them after the fact is misleading.

For example, because we don't ask them what they think, you cannot possibly know whether they are all for leave, all for remain, split on the issue, you simply do not and will never know unless another referendum is held and it's a 100% turnout.

Therefore the percentage of abstentions, who forfeited their vote and delegated the matter to those who did turn out to vote is removed from the calculation of the overall result for the electorate.

Some on here just don't seem to understand how referenda work and I get hounded for trying to explain it.

Thank you for all that text. I think you are rather missing the point about me not reading it though...

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The basic argument you, MobileSaver and wotsthat appear to be telling me is that the abstention vote counts after the fact, that these people did not delegate the responsibility for the decision that was taken on June 23rd.

Leave won the referendum and the abstentions count for nothing in that context.

However, MP's have to represent their constituents whether they voted leave, remain or couldn't be arsed. It stands to reason that 37% of the electorate voting leave is less enlightening than say 60% of the electorate voting leave.

beecher2

MobileSaver wrote: »

I agree however I believe more probably care now than before the referendum.

They would probably need to contact their MP in that case. I think MPs would find it difficult to defend voting against a parliamentary bill if their constituency voted Leave. They're unlikely to have enough evidence that a second referendum would result in Remain for their constituency.

Slightly more straightforward in most of Scotland I imagine, as every constituency voted Remain

beecher2

wotsthat wrote: »

Leave won the referendum and the abstentions count for nothing in that context.

However, MP's have to represent their constituents whether they voted leave, remain or couldn't be arsed. It stands to reason that 37% of the electorate voting leave is less enlightening than say 60% of the electorate voting leave.

I wonder if this argument has less traction in Scotland as we were burned in the first devolution referendum.

I actually didn't realise the result was as close as it was. I was only 11 at the time but remember a great deal of resentment over the way it was handled.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979

An amendment to the Act stipulated that it would be repealed if fewer than 40% of the total electorate voted Yes in the referendum. The result was that 51.6% supported the proposal, but with a turnout of 64%, this represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate. The Act was subsequently repealed.

movilogo

Brexit has impacted the status quo. That's what metropolitan elite group (e.g. MPs, Lords, big business bosses, bankers etc.) can't digest.

How dare common public dicate the elites!

MobileSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They're going to run around the town hunting down everyone who didn't vote to find out how they would have voted?

You will need to ask each MP for the specifics on how they ensure they reflect the wishes of their constituents, I am not privy to such detailed information.

However I am sure that most MPs will do their best to reflect the wishes of the true majority of their constituents at the time they're asked to make such a decision... and I am equally sure they will not simply ignore the wishes of anyone who says they didn't vote on 23rd June however much you would like them to.

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

Leave won the referendum and the abstentions count for nothing in that context.

However, MP's have to represent their constituents whether they voted leave, remain or couldn't be arsed. It stands to reason that 37% of the electorate voting leave is less enlightening than say 60% of the electorate voting leave.

It's also impossible to gather the feelings of everyone who abstained across every constituency so that we can work out - as MobileSaver wants - whether or not they support Leave or Remain because MobileSaver believes they would support Remain, probably then meaning that Brexit would be blocked.

That is not how it works after a referendum, advisory or not.

If that were the case why did they not go round asking the 59% who didn't bother to vote in the Alternative Vote referendum in 2011? Because that's not how it works. The referendum is the result, the abstentions as you quite rightly put it, count for nothing in that context during and after the vote.

End of story. Representing Leave as 37% is misleading because the abstentions were not reluctant remainers or reluctant leavers, they simply do not count.