If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

roddydogs wrote: »

What do you forecast the vote?

Now that depends on Corbyn. Will he stick with "we must respect the result" ?

prosaver

setmefree2 wrote: »

Now that depends on Corbyn. Will he stick with "we must respect the result" ?

so he says..
:: Jeremy Corbyn


"This ruling underlines the need for the Government to bring its negotiating terms to parliament without delay. Labour respects the decision of the British people to leave the European Union.
"But there must be transparency and accountability to parliament on the terms of Brexit."

wotsthat

Masomnia wrote: »

I don't know if the government could just put forward a motion to the effect of 'This House believes that article 50 should be triggered' and that will do the trick. If they need to pass legislation then I suppose they would need to involve the Lords.

A debate and vote is all that's required. It's probably what Cameron should've promised in the first place.

If the government lost a parliamentary vote they would have no choice but to call a general election as parliament would clearly be at odds with the 'will of the people'.

setmefree2

Latest Polling Data 1st November

A quick update on two polls released today.

The regular ICM poll for the Guardian has topline voting intentions of CON 43%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1), GRN 5%(-1). Changes are since mid October. Fieldwork was conducted over the weekend, and the full tabs are here.

BMG also released a new poll, though this is actually less recent than the ICM one (fieldwork was done between the 19th and 24th of October, so just over a week ago). Topline figures with changes from September are CON 42%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 4%(-1). Full details are here.

Both polls show the Conservatives still holding a large, robust lead. Note also that UKIP support is pretty steady in both – the drop in UKIP support that we saw in MORI’s poll does not appear to have been echoed in anyone else’s data.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Masomnia

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

This puts the House of Commons in an awkward position, and possibly the Lords in an even more awkward position.

If the government loses appeal they will no doubt ask parliament, who will then have to decide, implement the decision of the referendum or ignore it. I would think all of the MP's who vote to ignore the result who represent a constituency that vote leave will be out.

If the Lords block it, I would imagine there would be a groundswell of support for MP's who promote the removal of the Lords as it currently exists.

Whichever way it goes now the MP's and Peers either go with or against the majority of the country. Both options determining the fate of many political careers, parties and institutions in the eyes of the people.

It would result in a general election, surely, and very quickly. Tory MPs that went against the vote would lose their seats (if they're even selected to stand).* Labour will lose vast swathes of the North - probably to UKIP. Net step could be a Tory government with a mandate for Brexit holds another vote?

On the plus side Corbyn would be out on his @rse.



*They'll be reminded of this prior to any parliamentary vote.

ruggedtoast

Haha ha. You can see the mushroom cloud over west Sussex from Kilmarnock!

setmefree2

prosaver wrote: »

what was the point off a referendum... I wonder if the pounds going to go up? hahahaha.

If the polls stay as they are - this won't change anything - it'll just give the government's Brexit team much needed time to get its ducks in the row with the WTO - whilst not looking like it's dragging its feet to the rest of Europe - also might mean we can get past the French and German elections.

imho

Pound up at $1.24

steampowered

It isn't as simple as "are we in" or "are we out".

I imagine the point of this is that MPs will want the government to actually engage with parliament and explain how they are planning for Brexit. We really have no idea how the government is planning to deal with the enormous difficulties and changes which will have to be made.

I'm sure if the government does that there will be no problem rubber-stamping a Brexit Act.

setmefree2

Masomnia wrote: »

It would result in a general election, surely, and very quickly. Tory MPs that went against the vote would lose their seats (if they're even selected to stand).* Labour will lose vast swathes of the North - probably to UKIP. Net step could be a Tory government with a mandate for Brexit holds another vote?

On the plus side Corbyn would be out on his @rse.



*They'll be reminded of this prior to any parliamentary vote.

I honestly don't think anyone will be in a rush. The Brexit team need as much time as possible to get through everything that needs to be done - I bet they were all cheering (secretly) this morning.

Positive Procrastination.

setmefree2

Trade minister Fox says can transition EU trade deals into UK agreements

Britain will be able to transition European Union trade agreements with third countries into UK agreements when it leaves the bloc, trade minister Liam Fox said on Thursday.

"When it comes to the free trade agreements that the EU currently has, there are 36 covering more than 50 countries, it is entirely possible for us to be able to transition those into UK agreements and we are free to discuss those with countries while we are still members of the European Union," Fox told parliament.
"Our aim will be to have the minimum disruption of trade and no gap in market access for British companies."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade-idUSKBN12Y17B?il=0