If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

I was under the impression that the majority of Tory Party members and Tory voters were Leavers - that Remainers are the minority?

I fully agree with you that they are, although probably only a narrow majority of their voters, but lets be honest here a majority of their MPs aren't, so calling a snap election and making Brexit the core issue would make a lot of them vulnerable to UKIP challenges.

The threat of a snap election is clearly being used to pull parliament "into line" on this one, but I'm not sure how credible it is, if Tory MPs start saying they will invoke 50 but only with conditions in place that the government finds unacceptable, does May really want to go to the country when her majority could end up under threat from UKIP finding a reason to exist again and taking a significant share of the vote from the Tories.

The politics on the whole thing is messy as hell, especially given that rather than Brexit meaning Brexit, it actually means very little, due to the wide range of possible outcomes the government could pursue while still respecting the public vote.

MobileSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

the MP's and Peers either go with or against the majority of the country.

Point of order: It was actually a minority of the country who voted to leave the EU...

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

Or she could just call an election and win by a million miles.

Yes, it seems quite unlikely that the Tories would lose an election. If it's forced upon them by losing a parliamentary vote on A50 they'll have to go with it.

To do it voluntarily as a bet to ensure an A50 parliamentary vote can be won is pretty high risk. David Cameron can testify that political maneuvering requiring the input of the electorate is fraught with danger.

Does anyone think the days of the Tories hitting the self destruct button over Europe are definitely behind them? Really?

And Labour can't make any sort of comeback? Maybe campaigning for a softer brexit. Promises of nothing much changing but definitely less immigration.

TrickyTree83

MobileSaver wrote: »

Point of order: It was actually a minority of the country who voted to leave the EU...

Thanks, you're the 2nd person who corrected me on the semantics. I've accepted the correction.

The way that the voting works doesn't make the Leave vote a minority.

Effectively there were 3 options.

- Leave
- Remain
- Abstain

Out of the 3, we're all aware which had the highest percentage, and therefore a majority.

Can we please all stop using backdoor BS to try and spin this any other way than what it actually was?

Thanks.

lisyloo

Out of the 3, we're all aware which had the highest percentage, and therefore a majority.

No, your understanding of the words is incorrect.


Highest - biggest number
Majority - greater than half


Some didn't actively abstain. I had some friends who went on holiday and didn't apply in time (their fault but still not a conscious deliberate act on their part).

Out,_Vile_Jelly

I'm sure ruggedtoast is finding various comments pages hilarious (the DM is of course a comedy site). The point is that a huge swathe of the country felt betrayed enough by the elite to vote for this, and could well be shafted again. Do you think those people are just going to shrug, say mustn't grumble and erect an EU flag in their front garden?

I don't want to live in a county in which UKIP makes huge progress off the back of the complete failure of the mainstream parties to address the very real concerns about the EU, specifically uncontrolled and uncontrollable immigration.

jimjames

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm just glad no-one on here has any decision making responsibility.

That's the problem in bowing to populism and referendum results rather than parliament doing what they are meant to.


I think if you followed the populism process you'd end up with certain criminal being hung from lampposts and the death penalty being implemented.

Conrad

lisyloo wrote: »

Some didn't actively abstain. I had some friends who went on holiday and didn't apply in time (their fault but still not a conscious deliberate act on their part).

I bet they were motivated enough not to forget their Passports were in date and to buy sun cream, but they weren't sufficiently motivated to ensure they could take part in the referendum.

jimjames

Filo25 wrote: »

The problem is its not just opposition MPs who have an issue with the government pretty much bypassing parliament on Brexit, there are a significant number of Tories who do as well

I just find it incredible that Brexiteers are in such a meltdown over democracy which is all this is about. The whole point of their campaign appeared to be giving Parliament control over our destiny yet when that actually happens they don't like it!
The actual verdict is here, it might help if some were to actually read it

https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

beecher2

Seems a waste of time having a referendum and then having parliament vote anyway. I don't see the point in voting on a negotiation position before negotiating even begins. The government could say they want access to the single market and an end to free movement, and the EU could tell them to beat it. What a huge mess, which surely should've been dealt with before June 23