If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Damn, another remainer line hits the buffers. Of course trade wont be disrupted. Humans make reality, it isn't written on stone tablets and handed down.


I've had the WTO 'will take years' argument so many times.

setmefree2

Britons Care More About Immigration Than Trade

Poll shows May is in touch with the public mood on migration, while the PM says Parliament will debate the “high-level principles” of her EU exit.

Britons care more about controlling immigration than keeping access to the European single market, a survey shows today, validating Prime Minister Theresa May’s strategy of prioritizing border controls as she negotiates Brexit.
Some 56 percent of respondents are more concerned about immigration than maintaining trade benefits, while 58 percent approve of May’s handling of the divorce, according to the poll by Survation Ltd for ITV.

The plunging pound, which has lost 18 percent of its value since the Brexit vote, also doesn’t seem to have fueled any regrets: Should another referendum take place now, 47 percent would vote “Leave,” compared with 46 percent who would vote “Remain.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/brexit-bulletin-britons-care-more-about-immigration-than-trade

setmefree2

Brexit could boost Christmas tree industry, growers say

The number of British-grown Christmas trees sold this year could be boosted by Brexit, growers have claimed.
A lot of trees are traditionally imported from large-scale growers like Denmark to meet demand in the UK.
But farm owner Rob Morgan said the falling pound meant prices had gone up 15% and it is "good news" for the British industry which is growing and more able to meet demand.

:snow_grin:rudolf::xmassmile:santa2::xmastree:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-37772190

Conrad

I am writing and recording a Brexit song. I have most of the lyrics in place, still a toss-up between various chorus lines though.


It centres on the theme of the all knowing, remain gloom monger seeking to put people right, in vain.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

:snow_grin:rudolf::xmassmile:santa2::xmastree:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-37772190

That's the second post of yours today I am re-posting over in Discussion Time, hope you don't mind! There's a chap there 'Steve' who has argued endlessly we cannot make / grow things ourselves

Rinoa

.....................

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

And such automation won't be cheap or be completely labour free, nor will it necessarily come from the UK.

So every small exporter/importer will need to either buy in or write a system, along with potentially new printing equipment, and they still have to input the data, verify it and attach the labels.
Then they still need to deal with any customs delays, fees and duties; potentially they'll be rejected for tenders because they can't get things to the other end fast enough.

Plus as said, the government system alone is going to cost millions, plus at least a few hundred per business for capital costs, and a few pence per transaction.

There's apparently about 5.4million SME's in the UK, and approximately 200,000 that export to the EU.

To hit your £10bn estimate, the average cost to an exporting business is therefore only £500. I doubt you'll be able to get an off-the-shelf export system for that.

So yeah, the £10bn is a very low estimate, purely in terms of logistics overhead.

What percentage of those SME's sell to the EU?

Don't just take the total do an arbitrary calculation out of context and pose it as fact.

https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-businesses-export-eu/

Similar figures to yours but makes the distinction of who trades with the EU and who does not.

They come up with figures between 5% and 8% based on government data, but it's not great, so assume 11%.

11% of 5.4m = 594,000 SME's affected by EU trade

£10bn (£10,000,000,000) / 594,000 = £16,835

That's a pretty expensive WMS-lite and DMS-lite system on a web based platform using a smartphone app as a barcode scanner. Pretty lucrative, more so if it's going to cost them more than £10bn.

Edit: This also assumes that the 11% are also purely SME's, which they would not be.

Can't see where £tens of billions is anywhere near accurate.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

That's the second post of yours today I am re-posting over in Discussion Time, hope you don't mind! There's a chap there 'Steve' who has argued endlessly we cannot make / grow things ourselves

Christmas trees?

What next? paper clips?

Yamumuk

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So she's carrying out the will of the people to leave the EU and also get the best possible access to the single market.

What's wrong with that?

As a Brexmonger just mentioned above Mays plan to be out of single market and to stop freedom of movement which according to at least 1 Brexmonger above is not what they want.

That is just 1 thing wrong with it.

Although it could be argued that given UKIP have been instrumental in the "They come over here take our jobs blah, blah, blah...." that prospective Brexit voters should have understood they did not know what they were voting for exactly but felt voting for the unknown was better than peace, good trade, decent living standards etc. A mind bogglingly poor decision at best, deeply incomprehensible and highly risky voting strategy at worst.

Frankly, May seem pretty clueless right now.

I still feel no Brexit is the best move the U.K. could make and I suspect that irrelevant of what the 52pct think it may still not happen. When the gargantuan damage that will occur is understood at the time of triggering A50 I suspect it simply will not happen. be it on that persons head forever. Even May does not think Brexit is right...it's a right old mess.

A few articles and May statement to digest:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/20/public-turning-against-brexit-theresa-may-immigration

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

If the EU decrees that new tractors sold in the EU have to have ABS, come from a factory with 100% LED lights and where the staff don't work more than 32 hours/ week then our exporters will have to suck it up.

Indirect protectionism within the great and free single market?
Surely not.