If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Brexit to hit German exports by 9%

The impact of Britain's vote to leave the European Union will shave around 0.25 percentage points off growth in Germany, Europe's largest economy, in the coming year, a study in a German newspaper suggests.
Exports, which have traditionally powered the German economy, are likely to fall by nine per cent on the year in 2017 due to the weaker pound, according to the study by the IW Cologne Institute for Economic Research that was cited by Rheinische Post.
Last year German companies exported goods worth about 89 billion euros ($A127 billion) to Britain, making the United Kingdom their third most important export destination.
Researchers at the IW said the weaker pound against the euro, along with an expected decline in growth in Britain, would lead to lower growth in Germany even before Britain has left the EU.

Read more at http://finance.nine.com.au/2016/10/25/18/33/brexit-to-hit-german-exports-by-9-study#y03MdAPzGQlIYhtz.99

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Even the smallest of businesses is able to automate such forms now. That's an opportunity for the IT sector in the UK.

And such automation won't be cheap or be completely labour free, nor will it necessarily come from the UK.

So every small exporter/importer will need to either buy in or write a system, along with potentially new printing equipment, and they still have to input the data, verify it and attach the labels.
Then they still need to deal with any customs delays, fees and duties; potentially they'll be rejected for tenders because they can't get things to the other end fast enough.

Plus as said, the government system alone is going to cost millions, plus at least a few hundred per business for capital costs, and a few pence per transaction.

There's apparently about 5.4million SME's in the UK, and approximately 200,000 that export to the EU.

To hit your £10bn estimate, the average cost to an exporting business is therefore only £500. I doubt you'll be able to get an off-the-shelf export system for that.

So yeah, the £10bn is a very low estimate, purely in terms of logistics overhead.

Conrad

The EU is just coming out of a years long protracted downturn. Hamish makes it sound like all France et al had to do to recover was 'just' find new markets, as if my magic, given how CASUALLY they will accept loss of UK trade and be able to replace it.


A number of EU nations enjoy considerable surplus on UK trade, meaning real people making real livings. No chance will heads of Government be throwing them on the scrap heap for the sake of Brussels political project


Furthermore they need us fully committed in terms of our military, our world beating intelligence gathering and our fishing waters.


How many days before the remainers wake up?

Herzlos

None of us are asleep, nor do we deny that the EU will suffer from a poor trade deal as well.

The issue is that whilst a bad trade deal with the EU will hurt the EU, it'll absolutely destroy us. So Brexit is potentially bad enough to plunge the entire EU into a recession, but of course, we will have burnt any good will, so they won't be helping us back out afterwards.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

Like it or not anyone wishing to supply tractors (or anything) into the EU has to meet EU standards. It's not just the product that has to meet EU standards - in some cases it's the factory too.

.

We could borrow the magic wand used by Hitachi, Isuzu, Proton Ssan Yong, Caterpillar and the rest.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

We could borrow the magic wand used by Hitachi, Isuzu, Proton Ssan Yong, Caterpillar and the rest.

They have to follow the same rules to sell into the EU as we do.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just.... Oh never mind.

Clearly you don't work in this sector Hamish.

The boss of the Scotch Whisky industry’s trade body is jumping ship to a new role in Whitehall just weeks after claiming that the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) would deliver major opportunities to the sector.
Sky News understands that David Frost, who has run the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) for three years, is leaving to join the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in a senior post encompassing - but not limited to - international trade.

http://news.sky.com/story/whisky-chief-frost-jumps-ship-to-whitehall-for-key-foreign-affairs-role-10631886

What sector do you work in?

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

They have to follow the same rules to sell into the EU as we do.

You don't say!
Just as Jaguar must abide by rules to sell in the USA and Japan.


£28m a day and loss of sovereignty was a very high price for a 1/28 th say in a squabble club

setmefree2

‘Brexit will NOT disrupt UK trade’ vows World Trade Organisation

THE chief of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Roberto Azevedo, has said that trade between UK and EU member states will continue during Britain’s ‘smooth’ divorce with the European Union.

Mr Azevedo has said that the Brexit vote was not “anti-trade” and gave reassuring words that the UK’s transition out of the EU would be “fast and smooth”.
The WTO leader said: “I will be working hard - I will work very intensely to ensure that this transition is fast and is smooth.
“The less turbulence the better. The global economy today is not in the best shape for us to be introducing turbulence.”

The failed talks between the EU and Canada over a trade deal after years of negotiations have sparked fears that Britain would leave the bloc without new trade agreements.
The WTO chief said that the UK will continue to be a member of the WTO even though it will have to renegotiate its membership.
He said: “Trade will not stop, it will continue and members negotiate the legal basis under which that trade is going to happen. But it doesn't mean that we'll have a vacuum or a disruption.”

The WTO has said that it will support the UK as it breaks its ties with the EU.
Before the EU referendum, Mr Azevedo warned the UK about the difficulties it would face it it were to leave the bloc.
However, the chief said: “It's very difficult to predict but my understanding is that the UK government is fully aware of all that, we have been talking, they know of these complexities and they're trying to handle it in the best way they can.

"I told the Trade Secretary Liam Fox that I myself and the WTO secretariat will be available to make the transition as smooth as possible.
"Then we have been in touch, not every day, but clearly there will be a very dynamic relationship in the future."
He said that since the June vote, there have been lots of “bright people” coming up with a "game plan".

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/725449/World-Trade-Organisation-Brexit-not-affect-trade

If you don't like the express here's a sky link

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-will-not-cause-uk-trade-disruption-wto-boss-10632803

"Since the vote there have been a lot of bright people spending 24 hours a day thinking about this and coming up with alternatives and a game plan."

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

The issue is that whilst a bad trade deal with the EU will hurt the EU, it'll absolutely destroy us. So Brexit is potentially bad enough to plunge the entire EU into a recession, but of course, we will have burnt any good will, so they won't be helping us back out afterwards.

So all sides want;


1) a mutually harmful trading relationship


2) unemployment and loss of GDP


3) burnt bridges so that the UK wont volunteer anything like as much military and intelligence co-operation


4) EU loss of fishing rights


5) all round agro in a world of uncertainty


Y'up, that's just what all us foolish Europeans will deliver, well done you, but you forgot the flu pandemic'