If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yamumuk

Filo25 wrote: »

If we get a good trade deal with the EU personally I will be delighted, I fail to see reason for much optimism on this front at present though.

The only way I think a "good" deal is likely to be achieved, is by the British government caving in on the supposed freedom of movement redline, at least to the extent of allowing freedom of movement of Labour if not freedom of movement of people.

From a purely economic point of view, I would be delighted with a Norway style deal, free trade with the EU and freedom to negotiate our own deals with the rest of the world, politically though that would clearly be problematic at present, and unless public opinion move significantly I doubt we will see it happening.

Without significant concessions from both sides its hard to see a permanent deal being in place by 2019, so the focus will need to be on how good any transitional deal will be.

Norway have openly said their deal is terrible. Because they have huge mineral wealth they can just about make it workable, loads of gas and oils sure helps economies fight of recessions and financial issues etc.

That would make the U.K. much worse of than now unfortunately.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

You ignored the fact the entire establishment, Government, TV media, all three main parties, Govt organs and the rest threw massive uncalled for weapons grade terror and lies at us, almost no facts and no reason, so yes you're right we would demand another referendum had the corrupting establishment won out.

I ignored nothing, I was simply pointing how hypocritical some Brexiteers are when using the phrase Remoaners

Filo25

Yamumuk wrote: »

Norway have openly said their deal is terrible. Because they have huge mineral wealth they can just about make it workable, loads of gas and oils sure helps economies fight of recessions and financial issues etc.

That would make the U.K. much worse of than now unfortunately.

I've pretty much accepted we're going to be worse off than now, whatever happens!

Even if you favour a Hard Brexit in the long run I think there is a lot to be said with a Norway style deal in the short run to give you time to actively negotiate trade deals with other non-EU countries, and ease the economic shock when you eventually lose access to the single market.

As I said though I can't see the government being willing to take on that political fight in any case.

Masomnia

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes I do, but I wouldn't call them threats.
The remain campaign has made various forecasts over brexit
- the pound would fall sharply
- food prices will go up
- a family would be £4300 worse off by 2030
- pensioners would be hit
- family holiday would become more expensive
- threat to peace and stability in Europe

Some of these predictions might prove to be overly pessimistic, some might not. Some of them have already come true.

Don't forget the emergency budget and the 'instant DIY recesssion'.

We're talking about very different ideas, so it's difficult to compare the two. The leave camp were making 'promises' when none of them was in power, so really they were never any more than suggestions for what we could do if we left - and should never have been taken as such.

The remain camp is based on the idea that someone else should be making the decisions, so they were never going to make promises to be held to anyway.

Neither side really covered itself in glory I don't think.

Conrad

Masomnia wrote: »

What British legislation, if any, did it replace?

Britain is the home of elf n safety and following procedure, and my experience is such things are less onerous in France.


When a death occurs on a French motorway the roads still function whereas in elf n safety pc Britain the whole motorway is closed for investigation.


At French water parks I notice considerably less elf n safety - just a more mature practical approach

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's going to cost £Billions just to upgrade the HM Customs computer systems - and there are real worries it's not even possible by the time we leave.

The current system is designed for 50m transactions a year - the super duper expensive new system that a large govt IT project is installing was designed to reach 100m transactions a year.

Since the Brexit vote and possibility of leaving the customs union the specification for the new system has had to be urgently uplifted to 350m transactions a year - unsurprisingly given the history of govt IT systems - pretty much nobody believes this will be delivered on time or on budget....

With hundreds of millions of additional customs declarations needing to be processed by government that's also hundreds of millions of additional customs declarations needing to be prepared and processed by businesses - you can argue that's cheap if it's a large business with automated solutions - but for all the small businesses it's additional manpower and scaled up across the economy it's a huge cost.

Plus you've then got the additional costs of tens of thousands of additional customs spot checks both here and in Europe, the losses in downtime for the vehicles and drivers subjected to them, the additional manpower to set up and enforce a hard customs border which does not exist today, etc etc etc.

Tens of Billions might be an understatement.....

Tens of billions is a wild over exaggeration.

Even the smallest of businesses is able to automate such forms now. That's an opportunity for the IT sector in the UK. Especially if CDS allows API's to submit electronic declarations.

I'll agree that the CDS system may not be on budget, I used to work in government too and they rarely were. A typical example I was exposed to was a project costed at £1m ended up costing £3m. The additional money here is small fry compared to tens of billions.

Technology will answer the problems faced by large and small business alike. Particularly businesses like the one I work for, technology focused supply-chain logistics with in-house development. This is what myself and Conrad were talking about when we said Brexit will also present opportunities as well as difficulties.

Set up a web based platform twinned with a smartphone app and a barcode scanner function for small firms to log inventory, assign a SKU, set it for dispatch, generate the relevant forms or send the forms electronically.

The increase in spot checks will require boots on the ground, so there will be an increased cost there. But tens of billions, that's definitely a stretch, and certainly not an underestimate.

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes I do, but I wouldn't call them threats.

Some of the Remain lies and fear inducing false narrative;


Televised Select Committee revealed how Remain campaign Treasury forecasts were based on nothing more than highly erroneous input assumptions as ordered by Cameron to 'suit the political narrative of the time';


Fri 21 Oct 2016
bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08021fd





George Osborne 21 May - 'a Leave vote would produce an “immediate economic shock” that would “affect the value of people’s homes to the tune of 18 per cent". The Treasury’s small print revealed that they were actually forecasting that house prices would continue to rise


“a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession”.


An emergency budget. Osborne, along with Alan Johnson, said a few days before the referendum that a Leave vote would result in an emergency budget, involving £30 billion of spending cuts and tax rises. The expected timescale numerous newspapers gleaned from Treasury spinners was that this would happen “within weeks” of the referendum.


The central Treasury forecast was for a ‘brief shallow recession’, but the entire Remain establishment told us we’d be putting a bomb under our economy


Remains £4300 cut to every household;


‘Neither government departments nor other spokespeople for the remain side should repeat (this) mistaken assertion… to persist with this claim would be to misrepresent the Treasury’s own work’. SOURCE: Treasury Select Committee.


Cameron promised future immigration cuts and maintained the ‘tens of thousands’ ambition, but Treasury economic forecasts out to 2030 assumed current immigration levels.


Osborn said house prices would fall 28% – failing to mention the BOE could reduce interest rates to avoid this and indeed prices are now going up again


Osborn said there would be an immediate interest rate hike, yet they’ve now fallen


Osborn threatened a pension cut yet the triple lock prevents this!


Osborn ordered The Treasury to consider negative only spectrum outcomes that assumed no trade deal with EU or anyone else!


Osborn promised an immediate emergency budget & tax rises


Obama – told us we’d go to the back of an imaginary ‘queue’ failing to mention US /EU trade deals had failed over years.


Clegg told us cross border co-operation on the environment and security are ONLY possible within the EU, failing to mention examples such as the Australia / EU security and sharing agreement 2015


Establishment economists with a liberal academic bent piled myth upon myth, and promised immediate chaos. All nonsense informed by raw emotion and status quo bias


BOE made no mention of the economic weapons at it’s disposal in order to down-play the effects of any turbulence. Following Brexit they deployed those weapons of course.


Sterling devaluation was recommended by the IMF for months prior to the vote, yet Remain never mention this

TrickyTree83

Yamumuk wrote: »

Norway have openly said their deal is terrible. Because they have huge mineral wealth they can just about make it workable, loads of gas and oils sure helps economies fight of recessions and financial issues etc.

That would make the U.K. much worse of than now unfortunately.

What's Switzerland's excuse then?

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

- a family would be £4300 worse off by 2030

Two Select Committees and the former BOE Governor said that this assertion brings economics into disrepute.


It displays considerable ignorance on the part of those that continue to deploy this utter nonsense figure based on modelling inputs that were entirely unrealistic and that assumed 'no interventions' by Govt or the BOE to support UK economy.

This more than anything else epitomises the ignorance and lies of project fear

mayonnaise

Masomnia wrote: »

Don't forget the emergency budget and the 'instant DIY recesssion'.

Yes, let's have a look at the instant DIY recession claim.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html

Treasury analysis suggests GDP could be 3.6% lower by 2018 than otherwise if Britons vote to leave EU on 23 June. Unemployment seen at 500,000 higher

Let's wait till 2018 before we dismiss this one, ok?
We didn't have an emergency budget yet, I'll give you that.
But it looks increasingly likely we'll have one rather sooner than later.

Philip Hammond faces £84 billion black hole in public finances without 'fiscal reset', economists warn

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-billion-black-hole-economists-a7380081.html