If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

The_Last_Username wrote: »

You're trying to defend the indefensible.
Remember all the "remain" camp's threats?
Many within the EU itself accept their problems including Tusk and Junckers.
Why can't you?

I never said the EU was perfect, obviously it isn't.

I also never said the remain camp was either, but the remain camp hasn't has to about-turn on anything it said; most of it's claims are still largely valid (in as much as we know).

Was anything in the leave campaign truthful, beyond hollow soundbites about sovereignty and taking back control?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

If our current EU trade deal is that good, why are they afraid of us negotiating with others?

We can of course negotiate our own trade deals if we leave the customs union - however the cost to British business of leaving the customs union is significant.

So we take a hit of tens of billions to the economy today - and in return we might do some more trade elsewhere in a decade or so if we can get new deals in place with enough significant markets - which may or may not be enough to make up for the trade we lose today.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We can of course negotiate our own trade deals if we leave the customs union - however the cost to British business of leaving the customs union is significant.

So we take a hit of tens of billions to the economy today - and in return we might do some more trade elsewhere in a decade or so if we can get new deals in place with enough significant markets - which may or may not be enough to make up for the trade we lose today.

Do you really believe that UK business won't sell into the EU because they have to fill some forms in?

Are you seriously suggesting that filling in forms will cost the economy £billions?

Show me the evidence.

I code for an international logistics & supply chain firm, do you think we spend enormous amounts of money employing touch typists to manually complete such forms? The cost we actually expend is so negligible it costs us more to do custom code work for customers.

chucknorris

Conrad wrote: »

Ah I get it, no matter what landscape ends up being in place, Remainers will somehow claim it was 'only a soft brexit'.


All their doom n gloom fairy stories will be out of mind I would guess

Hardly doom and gloom, I voted remain because I didn't want to take on the risk of Brexit, we voted and the decision was to leave the EU. I've moved on now (quite a while ago actually). Worse case scenario wouldn't be that bad for me anyway, but obviously I am not hoping for anything bad, I would rather be pleasantly surprised, but I am happy enough to end up just slightly worse off.

Yamumuk

Firstly a cult is a very poor choice of words for people worrying about their future and quite rightly so. I did not expect less though. Poor choices are a thread running through the average Brexmongers mind.

Secondly we will say sorry we were wrong about trade. But when it goes t*** up we will not expect apology from yourselves, that is a big difference because you are all about the blame game and will transfer the blame to some other section of society that UKIP will use as a scapegoat. You will never admit Brexit was the worst decision this country has made, even if we are to collapse to the lowest point in U.K. history.

Unfortunately for us all this is about much, much more than trade. It is about many things including atmosphere in our country and the U.K's future Scotland,Wales, Ireland, Northern Ireland, future peace and in fact about people. In fact the people aspect directly affects me. People not from the U.K. are a big part of my life. I could go on but only have a few minutes to spare right now.

It is about world view and the future. Trade is merely one thing of many.

From the outset a better trade deal than we have is fantasy land. And in the extremely unlikely event of pure luck we get something even close to being as well off as we are now, how good will a trade deal need to be to offset rising costs due to inflation and a dead currency ?

It would need to be about 15-20 pct better than the deal we have in place. That will not be happening, ever. We can with certainty guarantee that. On that basis alone this thread has come to a premature end.

You would have to have an extremely wild imagination to consider we would get anything close to where we were pre Brexit. It's cloud cuckoo land.

Yamumuk

I suspect a drop in safety standards. I just bought a pair of sunglasses and they said UV400 and that they were made to European directive xxxxxx - sorry threw take in recycling now so cannot recall number.

So I can be secure that in fact the tinted lenses will protect my eyes against UV after my retina opens more widely to try and let more light in once putting the sunglasses on. Had this European directive not been in place I might have lenses that are dark and make my retina open more and not filter UV and in fact damage my eyesight.

When we go for cheap in the future to offset the many financial perils in the future we will end up getting hoodwinked on quality possibly at the cost of safety.

A very mundane and repeatable directive across many areas of safety that would never have entered a Brexmongers mind. There are things you do not even comprehend that you voted on.

It was ignorance to the highest degree.

mayonnaise

The_Last_Username wrote: »

You're trying to defend the indefensible.
Remember all the "remain" camp's threats?

Yes I do, but I wouldn't call them threats.
The remain campaign has made various forecasts over brexit
- the pound would fall sharply
- food prices will go up
- a family would be £4300 worse off by 2030
- pensioners would be hit
- family holiday would become more expensive
- threat to peace and stability in Europe

Some of these predictions might prove to be overly pessimistic, some might not. Some of them have already come true.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Are you seriously suggesting that filling in forms will cost the economy £billions?

Show me the evidence.

It's going to cost £Billions just to upgrade the HM Customs computer systems - and there are real worries it's not even possible by the time we leave.

The current system is designed for 50m transactions a year - the super duper expensive new system that a large govt IT project is installing was designed to reach 100m transactions a year.

Since the Brexit vote and possibility of leaving the customs union the specification for the new system has had to be urgently uplifted to 350m transactions a year - unsurprisingly given the history of govt IT systems - pretty much nobody believes this will be delivered on time or on budget....

With hundreds of millions of additional customs declarations needing to be processed by government that's also hundreds of millions of additional customs declarations needing to be prepared and processed by businesses - you can argue that's cheap if it's a large business with automated solutions - but for all the small businesses it's additional manpower and scaled up across the economy it's a huge cost.

Plus you've then got the additional costs of tens of thousands of additional customs spot checks both here and in Europe, the losses in downtime for the vehicles and drivers subjected to them, the additional manpower to set up and enforce a hard customs border which does not exist today, etc etc etc.

Tens of Billions might be an understatement.....

Filo25

If we get a good trade deal with the EU personally I will be delighted, I fail to see reason for much optimism on this front at present though.

The only way I think a "good" deal is likely to be achieved, is by the British government caving in on the supposed freedom of movement redline, at least to the extent of allowing freedom of movement of Labour if not freedom of movement of people.

From a purely economic point of view, I would be delighted with a Norway style deal, free trade with the EU and freedom to negotiate our own deals with the rest of the world, politically though that would clearly be problematic at present, and unless public opinion move significantly I doubt we will see it happening.

Without significant concessions from both sides its hard to see a permanent deal being in place by 2019, so the focus will need to be on how good any transitional deal will be.

Masomnia

Yamumuk wrote: »

I suspect a drop in safety standards. I just bought a pair of sunglasses and they said UV400 and that they were made to European directive xxxxxx - sorry threw take in recycling now so cannot recall number.

So I can be secure that in fact the tinted lenses will protect my eyes against UV after my retina opens more widely to try and let more light in once putting the sunglasses on. Had this European directive not been in place I might have lenses that are dark and make my retina open more and not filter UV and in fact damage my eyesight.

When we go for cheap in the future to offset the many financial perils in the future we will end up getting hoodwinked on quality possibly at the cost of safety.

A very mundane and repeatable directive across many areas of safety that would never have entered a Brexmongers mind. There are things you do not even comprehend that you voted on.

It was ignorance to the highest degree.

What British legislation, if any, did it replace?