If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Plus you've then got the additional costs of tens of thousands of additional customs spot checks both here and in Europe, the losses in downtime for the vehicles and drivers subjected to them, the additional manpower to set up and enforce a hard customs border

.....

Once again, I stand amazed at how my home is full of services and products from around the world.


You are surely correct, us feeble Brits wont be able to cope, all is lost.


I dare say the Germans and others will suffer this same fate, all of us unable to possibly make agreements and systems for our mutual benefit.


Once more we are reminded by plucky Remainers, that reality is not something we sculpt, but something handed down to us on stone tablets.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Do you really believe that UK business won't sell into the EU because they have to fill some forms in?

Are you seriously suggesting that filling in forms will cost the economy £billions?

Show me the evidence.

I code for an international logistics & supply chain firm, do you think we spend enormous amounts of money employing touch typists to manually complete such forms? The cost we actually expend is so negligible it costs us more to do custom code work for customers.

Today I can buy (or sell) a truck of chicken to Spain and it can travel unhindered with nothing more than a commercial invoice.

I could buy chicken from Viet Nam.

- the factory would have to be certified annually by the Vietnamese authorities to confirm they meet EU standards.
- the Vietnamese authorities would need to be approved by the EU
- the chicken consignment has to be certified by a Vietnamese vet before departure
- that vet has to be approved annually by the EU
- the consignment will be stopped at a UK border inspection post and subject to a veterinary check plus random sampling
- a whole tariff system needs to be maintained to collect tariffs

This is one of the areas we pool sovereignty with the EU so we share the costs of maintaining standards across the EU and third country suppliers.

If we become a 'third country' then there's potential that we'd need to supply chicken into the EU with this additional raft of cost. Likewise, if we decide imports from the EU have to meet new UK standards then there's a load of cost and complexity there too with no opportunity to share cost. Even if the trade was tariff free there would be new cost and non-cost barriers to trade.

I don't think people realise just how easy trade within the EU. It's mainly down to common standards.

The forms are to provide evidence of something (usually standards or tax) - they're not just an exercise in bureaucracy to give work to people who are good with mail merge.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

I don't think people realise just how easy trade within the EU. It's mainly down to common standards.

There is zero chance the Spanish will wish to create systems that hamper their exports to us. Same with German cars or Swedish timber.


None of us are daft, this is THE point.


Trade will not be hampered, quote me on it. A way will be found to ensure all parties trade is unaffected.


Remember we are already all enjoying this trade, so it is not the case of 'potential' Canadian trade, that no EU worker is currently reliant upon.


You will find the transition is seamless.

Yamumuk

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Tens of billions is a wild over exaggeration.

Even the smallest of businesses is able to automate such forms now. That's an opportunity for the IT sector in the UK. Especially if CDS allows API's to submit electronic declarations.

I'll agree that the CDS system may not be on budget, I used to work in government too and they rarely were. A typical example I was exposed to was a project costed at £1m ended up costing £3m. The additional money here is small fry compared to tens of billions.

Technology will answer the problems faced by large and small business alike. Particularly businesses like the one I work for, technology focused supply-chain logistics with in-house development. This is what myself and Conrad were talking about when we said Brexit will also present opportunities as well as difficulties.

Set up a web based platform twinned with a smartphone app and a barcode scanner function for small firms to log inventory, assign a SKU, set it for dispatch, generate the relevant forms or send the forms electronically.

The increase in spot checks will require boots on the ground, so there will be an increased cost there. But tens of billions, that's definitely a stretch, and certainly not an underestimate.

It will be outsourced to the lowest price as per usual with zero thought for British workers, money talks. Or just outsourced to anyone man enough for the task. China and Hinckley point ring any bells ? No other takers, China will do, irrelevant of safety and security concerns. Short term idiotic simple choices from the government as per usual. Again it is governance that is the problem not the E.U.

Conrad

Turkey; Lots of EU firms have been relocating to Turkey and then exporting into the EU. Barriers do not seem to affect qualifying Turkish exports and we the UK are a way more important European player, economically, militarily, the main intelligence gathering power, etc etc


TURKEY HAS DONE OK - WE AS A FAR MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER WILL DO VERY WELL WITH REGARDS THE EU DEAL


EU and Turkey

Turkey trading with the world

• In addition to the Custom Union with the EU, Turkey has signed Free Trade Agreements with EFTA, Israel, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Tunisia, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Egypt, Georgia, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Chile, Jordan and Lebanon.

A Customs Union came into force on 31 December 1995. A Customs Union came into force on 31 December 1995. The Customs Union covers all industrial goods but does not address agriculture (except processed agricultural products), services or public procurement. Bilateral trade concessions apply to agricultural products.


In addition to providing for a common external tariff for the products covered, the Customs Union foresees that Turkey is to align to the acquis communautaire in several essential internal market areas, notably with regard to industrial standards.




http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/turkey/

Yamumuk

Conrad wrote: »

There is zero chance the Spanish will wish to create systems that hamper their exports to us. Same with German cars or Swedish timber.


None of us are daft, this is THE point.


Trade will not be hampered, quote me on it. A way will be found to ensure all parties trade is unaffected.


Remember we are already all enjoying this trade, so it is not the case of 'potential' Canadian trade, that no EU worker is currently reliant upon.


You will find the transition is seamless.

I keep hearing..."Germans will still want to sell us their cars"

Will they ? Such cars will cost 20pct more than elsewhere, currency devaluation + tariffs. So these cars are going to cost a lot more to import from today in fact before further complications and tariffs.They won't rush to sell them at a lower price to maintain being competitive at showroom price. This couples with cliff fall investment losses in the U.K. from now till end of Brexit 2-5-10 years and subsequent job losses means no one but the extremely well off will be driving German cars. The German car market here just shrank by a big margin, it is that uncertainly + certainly of weak currency and tariffs again. They won't be rushing to sell to us when they can sell loads elsewhere without cutting their prices to remain competitive.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Let's wait till 2018 before we dismiss this one, ok?
We didn't have an emergency budget yet, I'll give you that.
But it looks increasingly likely we'll have one rather sooner than later.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/philip-hammond-billion-black-hole-economists-a7380081.html

Emergency budget referred to the timing of the budget rather than the tactics deployed to respond to any fiscal headwinds the UK economy might encounter.
There has been no unscheduled budget despite project fear saying there would be.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Do you drive a tractor or indeed buy tractors?
Your responses suggest not.
Because that is certainly not what EU farmers say, as my link shows.
The safety benefits - just for example, taking statistically over 20 years to prevent the first accident - would substantiate the view that this regulation is uneccesary.

Are you SERIOUSLY trying to suggest that the EU needs to be spending lord only knows how much time and money regulating tractors and especially with seemingly superfluous things things like ABS?
Instead of using the man-hours and funding on what matters - think migration; banking; employment; poverty; ............. well, there is a long list of things far more deserving of the EU's time and expenditure TBH.

Daft regulations like this one (and responses like yours) are a prime reason so many decided they want to leave the EU.
Feelings evident in numbers within much of the EU too, it would appear.

Like it or not anyone wishing to supply tractors (or anything) into the EU has to meet EU standards. It's not just the product that has to meet EU standards - in some cases it's the factory too.

Currently the UK has a say in these standards. Outside the EU it will be diminished/ zero. Farmers not wanting to pay for equipment which might improve the safety of other road users doesn't surprise me but in or out the UK is going to be determining these standards for themselves anyway. Even on things you consider superfluous.

If the EU decrees that new tractors sold in the EU have to have ABS, come from a factory with 100% LED lights and where the staff don't work more than 32 hours/ week then our exporters will have to suck it up.

If unreasonable/ unfair there's some recourse via the WTO complaints system but it would take years to sort.

Conrad

Yamumuk wrote: »

I keep hearing..."Germans will still want to sell us their cars"

Will they ? Such cars will cost 20pct more than elsewhere, currency devaluation + tariffs. So these cars are going to cost a lot more to import from today in fact before further complications and tariffs.They won't rush to sell them at a lower price to maintain being competitive at showroom price. This couples with cliff fall investment losses in the U.K. from now till end of Brexit 2-5-10 years and subsequent job losses means no one but the extremely well off will be driving German cars. The German car market here just shrank by a big margin, it is that uncertainly + certainly of weak currency and tariffs again. They won't be rushing to sell to us when they can sell loads elsewhere without cutting their prices to remain competitive.

Why then are they bothering with costly advertising campaigns in the UK, given you say they have little future here?


You remind me of many conversations I had on here back in 2012 - 15 when I did threads pointing out the UK economic recovery and folk kept claiming I was mad, that we'd had it, that the Tories economic plan was 'deluded'. and pointing me to books such as 'The End Of Britain' by Moneyweek.


Die-hard remainers just are suffering pessimism, it's as simple as that


I have noted your prediction, and will re-visit it in due course; " no one but the extremely well off will be driving German cars".

Please note my prediction - your prediction is crackers, Britain will boom and still you will keep saying everything is about to go darn the pan


Do you ever stop to wonder why thousands of EU citizens continue to pour into Britain each week? Why would they, if as you imply, they would be far better off in the EU?

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

You ignored the fact the entire establishment, Government, TV media, all three main parties, Govt organs and the rest threw massive uncalled for weapons grade terror and lies at us, almost no facts and no reason, so yes you're right we would demand another referendum had the corrupting establishment won out.

Are you sure it's not you that's starting to sound a bit cultish?