If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

Rinoa wrote: »

We'd only be pretending to leave.

As Boris, Cameron, Osbourne, Gove and many others stated before the referendum "Voting Leave means leaving the single market."

Chukka was having a good old squirm when this was pointed out to him last night.

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I wouldn't be against remaining in the single market a la Norway or Switzerland, immigration is not an issue for me. It obviously is for some...

Which brings us back to the same old question on the flavour of brexit.
Look, 3 brexiteer posters on this page.
TrickyTree doesn't have an issue with the SM and immigration, but it's an absolute redline for Conrad.
While Clapton voted out because of his deep-felt humane concern for the average African farmer.
Questioning and debating the flavour of brexit does not in any way scupper the vote at all.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

This is probably the first time we've agreed on MSE.

Let's enjoy it while it lasts.

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

Which brings us back to the same old question on the flavour of brexit.
Look, 3 brexiteer posters on this page.
TrickyTree doesn't have an issue with the SM and immigration, but it's an absolute redline for Conrad.
While Clapton voted out because of his deep-felt humane concern for the average African farmer.
Questioning and debating the flavour of brexit does not in any way scupper the vote at all.

Let's enjoy it while it lasts.

Whilst you're correct there's a suspicion, which I also hold, that we'll be kept in political union via parliament who are by and large (to coin your earlier phrase) ardent remainers. I don't want to be kept in political union by the back door and it's my view that the current positions we've heard of Theresa May and her government and the position of the EU and the elected national leaders are the two extremes purely for the sake of negotiation and meeting a consensus somewhere in the middle.

Filo25

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Whilst you're correct there's a suspicion, which I also hold, that we'll be kept in political union via parliament who are by and large (to coin your earlier phrase) ardent remainers. I don't want to be kept in political union by the back door and it's my view that the current positions we've heard of Theresa May and her government and the position of the EU and the elected national leaders are the two extremes purely for the sake of negotiation and meeting a consensus somewhere in the middle.

Even as a Remainer, I think it would be phenomenally dangerous for most members of parliament to look to ignore the referendum entirely and still leave effective political union on the table, if you're an MP representing Scotland or a metropolitan area which voted Remain then fair enough you could at least claim some kind of mandate from your constituents to ignore the overall referendum results, but most constituencies voted Leave, and I can't see how an MP in those constituencies could justify voting against the answer to the question which was given both nationally and by their own constituents.

I would be happy with a Soft Brexit option and to be honest would have been a lot less concerned about the vote to Leave if it had been clear that would be the option we would follow, it retains access to the Single Market whilst also freeing us up to negotiate our own trade deals elsewhere, without having to worry about trying to placate every other nation in the EU while negotiating them.

I still think its reasonably unlikely to be achieved though, to be honest I don't see anything being agreed by Q1 2019, so the terms of any transitional deal will be critical.

Rinoa

Here's why a soft brexit will never happen and why Theresa May is looking elsewhere for trade deals.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-article-50-european-union-canada-trade-deal-wallonia-belgium-2016-10

What a shambles the EU has become.

TrickyTree83

Rinoa wrote: »

Here's why a soft brexit will never happen and why Theresa May is looking elsewhere for trade deals.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-article-50-european-union-canada-trade-deal-wallonia-belgium-2016-10

What a shambles the EU has become.

To me that epitomises why I voted to leave the EU.

The political constructs are a mess. It needs to change, I would imagine the bigger hitters in the EU will eventually tell places such as Wallonia that might hold up a deal with the UK that it has to be accepted for the good of the EU economy as a whole. We're not Canada, we're a current EU member who once out of the political construct of the EU will be the largest trading partner of the EU who is not in the union.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

Even as a Remainer, I think it would be phenomenally dangerous for most members of parliament to look to ignore the referendum entirely and still leave effective political union on the table, if you're an MP representing Scotland or a metropolitan area which voted Remain then fair enough you could at least claim some kind of mandate from your constituents to ignore the overall referendum results, but most constituencies voted Leave, and I can't see how an MP in those constituencies could justify voting against the answer to the question which was given both nationally and by their own constituents.

I think most MP's would work towards this goal, but I find the SNP to be duplicitous.

http://www.snp.org/if_you_re_voting_with_independence_in_mind_this_thursday_vote_remain

Conrad

If we leave the EIB (European Investment Bank) this will amount to further billions saved. An ignorant remainer on BBC did the usual nonsense routine explaining we get money from the EIB without any recognition we've had precisely halve our contributions back since inception.


Akin to those pointing to an EU funded bridge without the slightest understanding this was OUR money returned, having done a circuit of Brussels and the bureaucrats wetting their beaks (syphoning off funds for their gold plated pensions etc) in the process, lol!

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Akin to those pointing to an EU funded bridge without the slightest understanding this was OUR money returned, having done a circuit of Brussels and the bureaucrats wetting their beaks (syphoning off funds for their gold plated pensions etc) in the process, lol!

It's not so important that it was our money to begin with, it's more that it's invested back into something useful.

Like, I don't complain when the council use some of my council tax to resurface the roads.

Would our government have built the same bridge if we didn't give the EU the money? I'm betting the answer is no, or the EU wouldn't have had to fund it :rotfl:

TrickyTree83

Has anyone been keeping tabs on polls in France, Germany and Italy?

France: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Italy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election

Germany: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election

Looks like anti-EU sentiment is on the rise and in some places - winning. Why is this? Was the UK indeed a bellweather and in fact the EU will have to negotiate not just with the UK but with France (2017) and possibly Italy (2018)?

In Germany the ruling party remains ahead in polls but support is wavering.