If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

prosaver wrote: »

Investment is booming since brexit ...google it ...

You're ruining the hysterical narrative. :mad:

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

There will be no dropping down, just change, and change breeds innovation and opportunity, nothing to be frightened about.

No, it's a change that leaves us with some degree of a weaker trade deal (WTO being the default if we can't agree on something). That could result in the imposition of tariffs, of customs checks & fees, and delays. All of which would leave us worse off. Okay, we *might* get a deal thats as good as the current one, but we might get a Bentley each, too.

Not all change is good. Not all change breeds opportunity or innovation. Not all change is free from fear or risk.

To be honest I don't trust the Tories not to either (a) make a collosal !!!! of things, or (b) shaft everyone else to their own personal gain. I have no confidence in us managing to get anything except a worse deal. Hell, I'd have more confidence in Mr Blobby to handle the negotiations than Mays team. :beer:

Also you keep ignoring endlessly the fact an average max WTO tariff is just 4% so the 18% currency fall has made up for this already, and we will collect more than the EU on our shared trade - why do you ignore this?

I'm not ignoring it, it's just not the panacea you keep trying to claim it is. The currency fall has made up for the tariff in terms of exports; we're still cheaper, but it compounds the import issue, not only is the GBP worth 18% less, but there may be a 4% tariff on top of that.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

not one EU country has said they will offer continued residency to UK citizens so all are holding them as negotiating cards

Offhand, you're wrong about Germany and Ireland at least (who have made some comments about offering citizenship to resident workers).

But in any case, they don't have to, they've said nothing about them at all, because there is nothing to say. Only the UK have explicitly referred to them as "bargaining chips".

Not that it matters, apparently by the time we actually leave, most of them will be legall resident anyway, so we'd only be able to throw out a few of them.

Bear in mind it's only the UK that's ignorant or xenophobic enough to even consider kicking out working tax payers.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Offhand, you're wrong about Germany and Ireland at least (who have made some comments about offering citizenship to resident workers).

But in any case, they don't have to, they've said nothing about them at all, because there is nothing to say. Only the UK have explicitly referred to them as "bargaining chips".

Not that it matters, apparently by the time we actually leave, most of them will be legall resident anyway, so we'd only be able to throw out a few of them.

in which case it would cost NOTHING for each country to be clear and unambiguous and say that they will allow UK residents indefinite leave to remain: you only have to read the papers or listen to TV to see expat UK nationals expressing fear about their status.

as you say UK will do the decent thing in any case, whilst the EU is refusing to say.

Bear in mind it's only the UK that's ignorant or xenophobic enough to even consider kicking out working tax payers.

there is NO evidence that we are considering kicking anyone out any more that there is evidence of EU countries doing so.

your hatred of the british is starting to rival toxic toastie: I take it you have no regrets about voting to continue discriminating against the Black African countries : I guess not as that's very EU.

prosaver

I think the EU has forgot we import more than export ... We've got the upper hand..
And the media forgotten too?
Anyway plans to have free trade with the rest of the world might be in the pipe line.
..

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

No, it's a change that leaves us with some degree of a weaker trade deal (WTO being the default if we can't agree on something). That could result in the imposition of tariffs, of customs checks & fees, and delays. All of which would leave us worse off.

The EU as a whole generates 44% of it's GDP through exports. Reduction in UK purchasing is something that cannot be put at risk. Given that the EU is struggling (as a whole) to show any degree of growth. With the ECB desperately struggling to stave off deflation. Be interesting to see the impact of the £ - € exchange rate in a year to 18 months time. As will greatly reduce tourism income for some EU member states for example. Let alone make German vehicles far more expensive.

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

No, it's a change that leaves us with some degree of a weaker trade deal (WTO being the default if we can't agree on something). That could result in the imposition of tariffs, of customs checks & fees, and delays. All of which would leave us worse off. Okay, we *might* get a deal thats as good as the current one, but we might get a Bentley each, too.

Not all change is good. Not all change breeds opportunity or innovation. Not all change is free from fear or risk.

To be honest I don't trust the Tories not to either (a) make a collosal !!!! of things, or (b) shaft everyone else to their own personal gain. I have no confidence in us managing to get anything except a worse deal. Hell, I'd have more confidence in Mr Blobby to handle the negotiations than Mays team. :beer:

I'm not ignoring it, it's just not the panacea you keep trying to claim it is. The currency fall has made up for the tariff in terms of exports; we're still cheaper, but it compounds the import issue, not only is the GBP worth 18% less, but there may be a 4% tariff on top of that.

Looking forward with interest to see how these customs checks and new tariffs on BMWs and VWs as they enter the UK are going to pan out. Got a feeling that the EU chiefs are going to get 'leant on' by German big biz (for that is how EU politics works) and suddenly the prospect of such 2 way trade obstacles will get wafted away.

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU as a whole generates 44% of it's GDP through exports. Reduction in UK purchasing is something that cannot be put at risk. Given that the EU is struggling (as a whole) to show any degree of growth. With the ECB desperately struggling to stave off deflation. Be interesting to see the impact of the £ - € exchange rate in a year to 18 months time. As will greatly reduce tourism income for some EU member states for example. Let alone make German vehicles far more expensive.

EU exports are 14% of EU GDP

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

Quite right.

it what paranoidal world, is the refusal to addess an important issue that affects peoples real lives, considered 'quite right'?

Conrad

buglawton wrote: »

Looking forward with interest to see how these customs checks and new tariffs on BMWs and VWs as they enter the UK are going to pan out. Got a feeling that the EU chiefs are going to get 'leant on' by German big biz (for that is how EU politics works) and suddenly the prospect of such 2 way trade obstacles will get wafted away.

Some say the Germans will sacrifice car sales to UK for the sake of EU political project, yet in all the online papers today I see German car promotions. Doesn't look like a retreat to me, they want that trade.