If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

If the US, Japan, China, India, South Korea etc were offered access to the single market on the condition they paid our membership fee pro rata and were obliged to offer free movement and work to all EU citizens, do you honestly believe any would take up that offer?

Nothing to do with the argument that the UK will be fine outside the EU because other countries are outside the EU and they're fine. You've been guilty of making the same argument though posting the USA's GDP and pointing out they're not in the EU. By that reckoning Scotland will be a superpower if/ when independent.

Your question above is also fallacious. It wouldn't matter if free trade/ movement deals were in the best interests of the countries you list because politicians wouldn't allow it to happen. Also don't forget the UK is only a few miles off the coat of France - free movement is geographically reasonable to discuss.

Just because something wouldn't or couldn't happen elsewhere doesn't mean we should dismiss it out of hand here.

Trumpeter

wotsthat wrote: »

We currently have a trade deal with the EU. When we leave it will be more difficult and more costly to trade with the EU. If it's more difficult and costly there will be less trade.


However, the argument that countries x, y or z don't have an EU trade deal and therefore the UK will be fine is churlish. It's a fallacious argument.

Some people seem to be under the impression that getting a divorce is financially the same as staying single.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

ne, because none of them (except us) are looking at dropping down from a free trade agreement to WTO terms.


.

There will be no dropping down, just change, and change breeds innovation and opportunity, nothing to be frightened about.


Also you keep ignoring endlessly the fact an average max WTO tariff is just 4% so the 18% currency fall has made up for this already, and we will collect more than the EU on our shared trade - why do you ignore this?

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The negotiation of the status of EU nationals is no different to that of UK expats within the EU. They are all in the same boat and given that neither the UK or the EU have guaranteed the rights of either group why are you not shrilling about the EU also?

The EU doesn't need to guarantee anything as it wasn't them who started off with the vile notion of using EU/UK nationals as negotiation cards. The EU has wisely kept silent on this one.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The alleged rise in hate crime since the referendum doesn't explicitly translate into "Poles being kicked to death". We have no idea what motivated the person/persons who perpetrated that crime to do it. The media reported it was because they heard him speaking Polish, we've no idea if that is in fact the case.

It's not an alleged rise. It's a factual rise.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/28/hate-crime-horrible-spike-brexit-vote-metropolitan-police

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So that's an hysterical exaggeration. What do you make of this:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polish-man-attacked-for-a-buzz-1.705903

Does that mean Ireland is also 'xenophobic little Ireland'. Or does it just apply to England?

You're a smart guy and you know the difference between an isolated incident and a trend. But well done on finding an article on a murder in Dublin 6 years ago.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The dental checks aren't happening, whereas you were posting as if they were, again hysterical exaggeration.

The dental checks aren't happening thank goodness, but just the fact it was proposed in the first place, and the plain nasty xenophobic reaction from larges swathes of the population over this is enough to make my stomach turn.

Trumpeter

Conrad wrote: »

There will be no dropping down, just change, and change breeds innovation and opportunity, nothing to be frightened about.

An opinion based on blind faith because nothing can ever possible change for the worse can it? So, if you have enough faith, you can do anything. And if you fail, it's not because you were wrong, you just didn't have enough faith.

Rinoa

Here’s yet another reminder that non-members can have free access to the so-called ‘Single Market’. Japan trades $164 billion annually with the EU and yet the CIA World Factbook estimates it will have net migration of zero this year. It pays no annual fee for access to the common regulatory regime and keeps control of its Island’s borders. It’s a modern day miracle.

http://order-order.com/2016/10/20/japan-immigration-trade-single-market/

I bet those Japanese are secretly livid they sell the EU all that but aren't allowed to pay anything for the privilege.

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

The EU doesn't need to guarantee anything as it wasn't them who started off with the vile notion of using EU/UK nationals as negotiation cards. The EU has wisely kept silent on this one.

So some politicians have said some stupid things, the underlying strategy on both sides remains the same. No guarantees will be given until negotiations take place. It's just a fact of reality that the rights of both groups of people is up for debate. I would fully expect the rights of both groups to be recognised. But only if both sides agree, that's a pretty sensible position for the UK government who must look after the interests of UK citizens (incl. expats) first and foremost.

mayonnaise wrote: »

It's not an alleged rise. It's a factual rise.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/sep/28/hate-crime-horrible-spike-brexit-vote-metropolitan-police


You're a smart guy and you know the difference between an isolated incident and a trend. But well done on finding an article on a murder in Dublin 6 years ago.

The rise is supposedly given validity by the fact that more have been reported to the police. Either more attacks are happening (I'll come back to this point), more are being reported or fabricated reports are being reported.

Even if we take it as if more attacks were happening, there were about 2,300 offences just after the referendum. That equates to 0.03% (rounded up) of the population of London being targeted. Even if we assumed that there were 2 people as the protagonists in these incidents, it hardly makes 17,000,000 people racist and xenophobic does it. So I'm correct in saying that it is hysterical exaggeration.

Oh and it was 4 years ago, and why is it an isolated incident in Ireland but not in England? Do the Irish have a hate crime level of 0% and this was an anomaly?

mayonnaise wrote: »

The dental checks aren't happening thank goodness, but just the fact it was proposed in the first place, and the plain nasty xenophobic reaction from larges swathes of the population over this is enough to make my stomach turn.

Large swathes of the population?! Where is the evidence for this claim? If 0.06% of Londoners hold this view and you extrapolate those figures out across the rest of the [STRIKE]UK[/STRIKE] England (forgot we were the xenophobic ones) then the population representative of these attacks does not even come close to 17,000,000, a large proportion, or even a small proportion of those who voted to leave. So can we stop with the branding of leave voters as racist/xenophobic.

mayonnaise

For all decent folks out there, you can make a small contribution by writing to the government to ask them to guarantee the status of EU citizens in the UK.


http://writetoremain.uk/

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

For all decent folks out there, you can make a small contribution by writing to the government to ask them to guarantee the status of EU citizens in the UK.


http://writetoremain.uk/

there is clearly no difference between the feeling of uncertainty and any anxiety about their residential status, between UK people living in EU countries and EU citizens living in the UK.

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

I bet those Japanese are secretly livid they sell the EU all that but aren't allowed to pay anything for the privilege.

If there was a free trade agreement between the EU and Japan trade between them would increase. Depending on the benefits it might be worth one of the parties contributing towards the legal structures of the other party. No one in their right mind would object based on the principle of a fee if that fee was less than the benefit such as removal of the 10% tariff on Japanese cars imported into the EU.

Be interesting to see what tariff the UK imposes on Japanese cars imports.