If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

It's not that trade with Europe can't be conducted using WTO terms (services being a bit of a grey area) it's that this trade will be more difficult and expensive than in the single market and therefore there will be less of it.

Your position really is that you think this shortfall can easily be exceeded with other, non-EU trade.

The whole world trades with the EU, often far more successfully that we, with no trade deal and they are not scuppered by these phantom trade barriers. Mifid 2 and other steps mean services exporting wont be an issue, and in any event the SM for services has never been completed - typical EU morass


There will be no noticeable loss of trade with EU. Tariffs would be 2 way, so cancel one another out and our exports are already cheaper by 3 times the sum of an average WTO tariff.


We are no a weak petitioner. The EU needs us in various different ways


Paddling our own canoe we will thrive better.

cogito

Conrad wrote: »

Brexit bounce continues, as UK consumer confidence hits five-year high


Another day, another piece of embarrassing data for those who predicted that the Brexit vote would trigger an immediate recession.


Their foundation was based on the belief that confidence would plunge. As things turn out the Deloitte Consumer tracker has hit an all-time high. It has only been running for five years, so the real story could be even more impressive. And while George Osborne was talking about half a million jobs going as a result of the Brexit vote, the Deloitte survey found a strong increase in confidence of job security, up from -10 per cent to -4 per cent




http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-bounce-continues-uk-consumer-confidence-hits-five-year-high/

An HM Treasury report claimed that a vote to leave the EU would ‘lead to a sharp further increase in uncertainty and instability, and have negative effects on investment as well as business and consumer confidence.’

Presumably the same Treasury report that was cited the other day as claiming that tax receipts would fall by £66bn.


Don't tell Hamish as his head will explode.

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

Brexit bounce continues, as UK consumer confidence hits five-year high


Another day, another piece of embarrassing data for those who predicted that the Brexit vote would trigger an immediate recession.

I was just thinking this morning I wonder if all the hysteria last week about inflation will actually backfire on The Remoaners. Inflation expectations drive consumption (which would in turn causes businesses to hire more, bringing down the unemployment rate.). Hysterical headlines about 10% plus inflation might well drive everyone to the shops to consume...maybe we see some good figure for Q4. Especially as the weather is about to turn cold tomorrow.....

...just a thought....

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Remoaners must find it strange that they use so many American and Japanese products and services.


As if by magic, Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Coke, Toyota, Subaru, Mazda, Sony and Panasonic all got here without a magical trade deal (protection racket).

You seem to really misunderstand what we're saying.

No-one is arguing that you can't trade without a free trade agreement. But a free-trade agreement makes trade easier. Hell, so does being in a customs union - I can send/recieve any goods within the EU with essentially no paperwork or legal concern (customs declarations). Once we leave, that'll go away, and lots of smaller exporters are going to have a lot more bureaucracy to deal with. That alone may make a cottage industry no longer profitable.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

You seem to really misunderstand what we're saying.

No-one is arguing that you can't trade without a free trade agreement. But a free-trade agreement makes trade easier. Hell, so does being in a customs union - I can send/recieve any goods within the EU with essentially no paperwork or legal concern (customs declarations). Once we leave, that'll go away, and lots of smaller exporters are going to have a lot more bureaucracy to deal with. That alone may make a cottage industry no longer profitable.

Nonsense, lots of people trade with the USA, even one of my Brothers, no issues, in Fact in some ways easier than the overly bureaucratic EU.




We currently only have trade deals with two of our top ten non-EU trading partners.
You also once more discount the major freedoms to be gained by being free of the sclerotic Brussels club


How do the Japanese manage to sell such vast levels of export to this miraculous SM without a trade deal?


How is it that UK / US investment is so robust without a trade deal?

setmefree2

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Strange, isn't it?
How those in London are the most pro-EU in England.

What constituted a Londoner in that survey? British born? Could just that all those peeps from the rest of the EU don't feel happy?

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

You seem to really misunderstand what we're saying.

No-one is arguing that you can't trade without a free trade agreement. But a free-trade agreement makes trade easier. Hell, so does being in a customs union - I can send/recieve any goods within the EU with essentially no paperwork or legal concern (customs declarations). Once we leave, that'll go away, and lots of smaller exporters are going to have a lot more bureaucracy to deal with. That alone may make a cottage industry no longer profitable.

Whilst this is true it doesn't really seem to stop the Chinese and Americans selling stuff to me on eBay.

If those products are the same yet cheaper, I'll buy them even if it means the seller needs to fill in customs declarations, etc.. It's also little bother to fill in the customs declaration when I send items to my family in Ukraine. I also know through my wife that large retailers are already dealing with customs declarations and manifests on a daily basis, it's not really a big deal.

Now knowing what I do about warehousing and supply-chain logistics (I write software for a firm that does this) then it's really no bother at all to automatically generate tote manifests or individual item manifests and electronically generate customs declaration forms. Sure it's easier to just stick it in a box and send it within the EU, for which we pay for the privilege (EU contributions). For big business it won't be a big problem, for smaller businesses it might be tougher for those without sufficient IT automation.

Perhaps that's a niche someone like myself could exploit after Brexit, or one that's already been exploited, I've not looked. Software that allows you to generate the manifests and declarations needed for countries around the world, slap the label on the parcel after scanning the relevant barcode.

With change will come opportunity.

Edit: without knowing if it already exists or not I've actually just suggested such a system to our software manager. Some form of web based and smartphone app based platform for light touch inventory management and label, manifest and possibly customs declaration automation.

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

What constituted a Londoner in that survey?

Someone living in London probably.

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

What constituted a Londoner in that survey? British born? Could just that all those peeps from the rest of the EU don't feel happy?

there is no way in the UK that one can tell who is a foreigner and who is not; quite different from most of Europe where foreigners and others must register their address with thelocal police/officials.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Nonsense, lots of people trade with the USA, even one of my Brothers, no issues, in Fact in some ways easier than the overly bureaucratic EU.

I can order a truckload of chicken from Spain, and vice versa, and it'll be here in two days. No health certs, no customs paperwork, it's against the rules to even inspect a shipment unless there's a suspicion of wrongdoing.

It couldn't be easier.