If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

(Disclaimer: This is not meant to be a generalisation on my part; more a continuation of media interpreting data.)

Strange, isn't it?
How those in London are the most pro-EU in England.

Where consumer confidence is lower than the rest of Britain according to a survey by Deloitte; consumer confidence falling by three points in London in the last quarter yet increasing by three points elsewhere.
This at a time when house prices in London fell whilst the country as a whole rose.

So houses are getting cheaper in London and still Londoners aren't happy; they're not happy when prices rise either.
What then would make Londoners happy, I wonder?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economy-idUKKBN12G0ZV

Jobs?
Well, it seems that all the "hoo-hah" over passporting has been exaggerated too (surprise surprise).

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN12G101
Plus thousands of jobs created with the opening of a 24/7 tube service; 1500 more (plus initial building jobs) at the planned expansion of City Airport; ........................ there are lots more.

So, why aren't Londoners more optimistic?
Because it really does strike me that - in many ways - they have more to be optimistic about than much of England.
Or is it just more self-fulfilling spin?

London has a positive future because a lot of the future additional jobs are going to be concentrated in London.

This has been true for 20 years and it looks likely to be true for the next 20 years.

For a start I expect manufacturing to decline in relative terms simply because automation is going to kill jobs and decrease prices in the sector. As I keep saying I used to work at a steel plant that had 30,000 men and when I left it had less than 3,000 people think this was the gutting of British industry and thatcher this or that but the truth was that with 3,000 men we were producing about 3x as much steel as we were with 30,000 men. What happened is productivity increased almost 30x. Now I do not expect another 30x improvement but I do think 10x is possible in which case if we currently have 4 million people working in manufacturing some 3 million of them will lose their jobs. And since London has less manufacturing jobs its going to see a lower impact there.

On the plus side I expect things like tourism to double in the next 15-20 years and most of that will be tourists visiting and spending money in London and almost none of the additional growth will be to stoke-on-trent so London will see more jobs and more money flowing into that sector

Likewise the current growth and future growth jobs are likely in the service sector (agriculture is only 1% of the economy and in the Long term that is likely to be the fate of manufacturing so only service jobs remain). Film media software tech advertising music arts tourism finance all London concentrated and all will benefit from world growth over the next 20 years.


People should not be surprised about why London has done so well and why it will continue to boom. The real question is why did London do relatively badly in the 1945-1980/90 period

A_Medium_Size_Jock

cells wrote: »

London has a positive future because a lot of the future additional jobs are going to be concentrated in London.

This has been true for 20 years and it looks likely to be true for the next 20 years.

For a start I expect manufacturing to decline in relative terms simply because automation is going to kill jobs and decrease prices in the sector. As I keep saying I used to work at a steel plant that had 30,000 men and when I left it had less than 3,000 people think this was the gutting of British industry and thatcher this or that but the truth was that with 3,000 men we were producing about 3x as much steel as we were with 30,000 men. What happened is productivity increased almost 30x. Now I do not expect another 30x improvement but I do think 10x is possible in which case if we currently have 4 million people working in manufacturing some 3 million of them will lose their jobs. And since London has less manufacturing jobs its going to see a lower impact there.

On the plus side I expect things like tourism to double in the next 15-20 years and most of that will be tourists visiting and spending money in London and almost none of the additional growth will be to stoke-on-trent so London will see more jobs and more money flowing into that sector

Likewise the current growth and future growth jobs are likely in the service sector (agriculture is only 1% of the economy and in the Long term that is likely to be the fate of manufacturing so only service jobs remain). Film media software tech advertising music arts tourism finance all London concentrated and all will benefit from world growth over the next 20 years.


People should not be surprised about why London has done so well and why it will continue to boom. The real question is why did London do relatively badly in the 1945-1980/90 period

I am in broad agreement.
However (and given the above), you have not answered the question;
"why aren't Londoners more optimistic?"

Rinoa

Here’s another reminder that trade flows freely in and out of the so-called ‘Single Market’ even if you are a non-member. China trades over half-a-trillion dollars annually with the EU and pays no annual fee for access to the common regulatory regime. Obviously China has no problem with controlling immigration from Eastern Europe, nor does it see its national sovereignty constantly frittered away by qualified majority voting and foreign judges ruling over Chinese citizens. How do they cope?

http://order-order.com/2016/10/17/chinas-free-access-to-single-market/

Conrad

Remoaners must find it strange that they use so many American and Japanese products and services.


As if by magic, Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Coke, Toyota, Subaru, Mazda, Sony and Panasonic all got here without a magical trade deal (protection racket).

mayonnaise

Apparently, Remainers should be silenced.





In further developments, a Conservative Councillor calls for support for EU membership to be made a criminal offence under the Treason Felony Act.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-petition-remain-crime-support-for-eu-treason-felony-act-membership-offence-a7365141.html

Britain, 2016.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

Apparently, Remainers should be silenced.





In further developments, a Conservative Councillor calls for support for EU membership to be made a criminal offence under the Treason Felony Act.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-petition-remain-crime-support-for-eu-treason-felony-act-membership-offence-a7365141.html

Britain, 2016.

If it stops even some of the nonsensical diatribe as found in these forums I could be tempted to add my vote for approval.

(Yes I know this is evidenced by both sides of the argument. And yes I know it could lead to very boring threads. And yes ......... :rotfl: )

steampowered

Rinoa wrote: »

http://order-order.com/2016/10/17/chinas-free-access-to-single-market/

I honestly don't think you or the writer of that article understand how difficult it is for UK businesses to do business in China.

You have to set up a company to do business there. Setting that up is incredibly difficult. You need to get regulatory approval for anything you want to do and comply with the regulator's capital requirements.

And of course the regulators apply foreign ownership limits. So what if want to establish a business in a sector which has competition locally? Tough luck, that market will either be closed to foreign investment completely or you'll have to partner with a local who must own a majority of your company.

I've seen quotes from law firms of US$40k for literally just establishing a company to start doing business in China. The same thing you do in the UK on the Companies House website for 20 quid.

There are a lot more barriers to trade than tariffs. In fact I would argue that the above are much more significant barriers to business than any of the tariffs which China imposes.

This is the kind of nonsense that other EU countries used to do (and we used to do), before membership of the single market stopped it. Once we have left the EU, other EU member states will be perfectly free to make life difficult for UK investors and to protect their industries from UK competition.

You can negotiate with the EU as much as you like but the EU can't stop this, since individual member states can pass their own trading laws each time their government gets lobbied by a local industry which doesn't like competition from the UK.

Conrad

steampowered wrote: »

You can negotiate with the EU as much as you like but the EU can't stop this, since individual member states can pass their own trading laws each time their government gets lobbied by a local industry which doesn't like competition from the UK.

The point is, other nations successfully export goods and services into the EU with no trade deal whatsoever.


One of the main faults of Remainers is they vastly over estimate the benefits of the SM. I'm sure your home is full of products that came to you without any SM trade deal.


70% of all our exports are traded under WTO terms.

Conrad

Brexit bounce continues, as UK consumer confidence hits five-year high


Another day, another piece of embarrassing data for those who predicted that the Brexit vote would trigger an immediate recession.


Their foundation was based on the belief that confidence would plunge. As things turn out the Deloitte Consumer tracker has hit an all-time high. It has only been running for five years, so the real story could be even more impressive. And while George Osborne was talking about half a million jobs going as a result of the Brexit vote, the Deloitte survey found a strong increase in confidence of job security, up from -10 per cent to -4 per cent




http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-bounce-continues-uk-consumer-confidence-hits-five-year-high/

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

The point is, other nations successfully export goods and services into the EU with no trade deal whatsoever.

One of the main faults of Remainers is they vastly over estimate the benefits of the SM. I'm sure your home is full of products that came to you without any SM trade deal.

70% of all our exports are traded under WTO terms.

It's not that trade with Europe can't be conducted using WTO terms (services being a bit of a grey area) it's that this trade will be more difficult and expensive than in the single market and therefore there will be less of it.

Your position really is that you think this shortfall can easily be exceeded with other, non-EU trade.

No one is arguing that trade with Europe will come to an end.