If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

I do not know - he's always ordered stock for his business from pretty much all over the globe and has never once mentioned any particular difficulties dealing with non EU.

So what you actually meant by your statement that your brother finds it easier to trade with the US than the EU was that your brother hasn't complained about difficulty trading with non-EU? Not really the same thing is it?

I can tell you, that trading with the US is an awful lot harder than trading with the EU. I've done it. It sucks.

Incidentally, British electronic music firm MIDAS has won the rights to build a German synth. Gotta love news like this. This carp that we can only import is an urban myth.

Except for the fact that we'll import most of the components used in said synth, because we don't actually have fabrication plants for most of it anymore.

That a British company won a German contract is a good thing, presumably helped by how cheap we've become, but it's not a sign that we're not an importer, or that we'll do awesome when Brexit happens.

There are a few clusters of that sort of industry in the UK at the moment though.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

If I were from an EU Country living and working in London I would not be very happy as my future post Brexit is uncertain.

Really?
Anyone who has certain job security two years hence and more is extremely fortunate.

Can you tell us that your job in Luxembourg is guaranteed secure for over two years from now?

posh*spice

gfplux wrote: »

Of the +/- 130000 French nationals living in the U.K. Half of them moved to London for a good job and goood pay. Their children could be educated in London at a French school and life was good.
Now they and their family worry about what their post Brexit future holds.

They came to avoid the eye watering taxes in France. And will stay for the same reason.

padington

posh*spice wrote: »

They came to avoid the eye watering taxes in France. And will stay for the same reason.

They might come here quicker when they realise there might be a deadline for residency after which a new Australian style point system will cost them arm and a leg to jump through with no guaranteed chance of success.

CLAPTON

padington wrote: »

They might come here quicker when they realise there might be a deadline for residency after which a new Australian style point system will cost them arm and a leg to jump through with no guaranteed chance of success.

maybe better if they stayed in France and tried to reform the EU (OK a long shot with no guaranteed chance of success)

setmefree2

cogito wrote: »

Oh yeah?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/298358/uk-financial-sector-banking-sector-employment-in-london/

There were only 143,600 employees of all nationalities in the banking sector at the end of 2015.

padington wrote: »

They might come here quicker when they realise there might be a deadline for residency after which a new Australian style point system will cost them arm and a leg to jump through with no guaranteed chance of success.

Sorry. You are correct. The 300,000 figure I got from an FT article I read yesterday, but it when I re-read it I realized I had mis-read it. - it actually said

Many moved to London’s South Kensington, sometimes referred to as Paris’s 21st arrondissement and home to the French Lyc!e school, to became part of the roughly 300,000 French people in the capital — an estimated third of whom work in finance.

Brexit vote puts brake on flow of French bankers to London

https://www.ft.com/content/cd575950-91f3-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

UK and US are one another's biggest investment partners, with 2 million jobs resulting from this trade alone, all with NO trade deal.

We're fully aligned and compliant with EU rules, I think you will find trade will be straight forwards after we leave. It really wont be anything to worry about, people soon adapt, but the opportunities are vast

Whilst it is true that the EU has no Trade Deals with the US, China, India etc and the UK still manages to conduct vast amounts of trade with these countries - they do so under the EU's WTO schedule.

From what I've read there does seem to be a lot of debate about what can be achieved within the WTO in a two year time slot in this regard for the UK - a more realistic time horizon seems to be 4 to 5 years.

This seems to suggest to me that the UK needs a transitional period during which it stays in the customs union until it has its WTO schedule, etc sorted out?

Moto2

setmefree2 wrote: »

Whilst it is true that the EU has no Trade Deals with the US, China, India etc and the UK still manages to conduct vast amounts of trade with these countries - they do so under the EU's WTO schedule.

From what I've read there does seem to be a lot of debate about what can be achieved within the WTO in a two year time slot in this regard for the UK - a more realistic time horizon seems to be 4 to 5 years.

This seems to suggest to me that the UK needs a transitional period during which it stays in the customs union until it has its WTO schedule, etc sorted out?

The Brexiteers are flat out, (pedal to the metal) if they slow down, the process stands the risk of more scrutiny, they don't want that.
We had the vote, leave won, so now democracy must take a back seat until we've either crashed or we've reached the point of no return.

setmefree2

Moto2 wrote: »

The Brexiteers are flat out, (pedal to the metal) if they slow down, the process stands the risk of more scrutiny, they don't want that.
We had the vote, leave won, so now democracy must take a back seat until we've either crashed or we've reached the point of no return.

I don't believe that. Pragmatism will win in the end. Nobody wants to crash the economy.

I guess the government will attempt to get stuff through the WTO in the 2 year period. The probability of it succeeding however must be extremely slim.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Except for the fact that we'll import most of the components used in said synth, because we don't actually have fabrication plants for most of it anymore.

.

The tanker is turning at long last, far superior to carrying on as we were with an unsustainable trade deficit and millions of non jobs.

In time you will see UK firms starting to make supplies, it's what our own devaluation history shows us

All is good