If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

So what you actually meant by your statement that your brother finds it easier to trade with the US than the EU was that your brother hasn't complained about difficulty trading with non-EU? Not really the same thing is it?

I can tell you, that trading with the US is an awful lot harder than trading with the EU. I've done it. It sucks.



Except for the fact that we'll import most of the components used in said synth, because we don't actually have fabrication plants for most of it anymore.

That a British company won a German contract is a good thing, presumably helped by how cheap we've become, but it's not a sign that we're not an importer, or that we'll do awesome when Brexit happens.

There are a few clusters of that sort of industry in the UK at the moment though.

setmefree2 wrote: »

Whilst it is true that the EU has no Trade Deals with the US, China, India etc and the UK still manages to conduct vast amounts of trade with these countries - they do so under the EU's WTO schedule.

From what I've read there does seem to be a lot of debate about what can be achieved within the WTO in a two year time slot in this regard for the UK - a more realistic time horizon seems to be 4 to 5 years.

This seems to suggest to me that the UK needs a transitional period during which it stays in the customs union until it has its WTO schedule, etc sorted out?

I have a quote from a former WTO Director, stating it is inconceivable the UK won't be able to trade more or less immediately under WTO terms, that talk of delay is ludicrous. I will see if I can find it

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

I have a quote from a former WTO Director, stating it is inconceivable the UK won't be able to trade more or less immediately under WTO terms, that talk of delay is ludicrous. I will see if I can find it

You don't need to. We know we'll have no issue with using WTO terms. It's just a worse deal than EU free trade terms, and we still don't get to make any of the decisions.

Our.
Trade.
With.
Europe.
Won't.
Stop.

It'll just get worse :j

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

The tanker is turning at long last, far superior to carrying on as we were with an unsustainable trade deficit and millions of non jobs.

How?

In time you will see UK firms starting to make supplies, it's what our own devaluation history shows us

What with? We don't produce any raw materials anymore (beyond some chalk/coal/tin/wood), and most of the raw materials we need for tech are only really available from China.

In order to actually make anything, we more or less have to import it from somewhere else. So whilst the devaluation of the GBP makes us cheaper as producers, we've still got to pay more to get the stuff in, so there's less profit in it.

That's before you even factor in all the logistics issues and artificial barriers to trade. Plus we're still not going to undercut the far east for production unless things go really wrong.

cells

Don't worry we will become the nimble tiger in the west.

Millions of others will do the same as their non jobs are converted to honest good paying inclusive worthwhile jobs that's what we voted for and its a about time the unsustainable debt fueld economy of mass imports under cutting locals who feel left behind changed that's what brexit was all about and brexit means brexit you lot needlessly worry the whole world sells to the EU and we will become the tiger on the EUs doorstep

I just hope amazon hasn't run out of tiger masks

Herzlos

I never understood this Tiger economy thing, it's referring to a period of rapid economic growth (which ain't going to happen) and increase of standard of living (ditto), from the emerging economies of the far east (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore), where pretty much everything is manufactured now.

Literally none of that applies to the UK, which had it's growth period nearly 100 years ago.

I'm assuming it's just another empty term to pretend that we're going to be great.

cells

Herzlos wrote: »

I never understood this Tiger economy thing, it's referring to a period of rapid economic growth (which ain't going to happen) and increase of standard of living (ditto), from the emerging economies of the far east (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore), where pretty much everything is manufactured now.

Literally none of that applies to the UK, which had it's growth period nearly 100 years ago.

I'm assuming it's just another empty term to pretend that we're going to be great.

Its just nonsense Conrad says

Brexit means less benefits for the old by a real term cut in the NHS and pensions and a higher retirement age and likely slightly higher taxes. If we don't want to dilute the retired to working ratio with young migrants we are going to have to work a couple of years longer before we get a state pension. Relative to what would have been.

The trade side of things I feel will be OK. We might find some sectors contract and others expand even if overall its a small contraction that should be offset by the savings in the £10B annual EU payments.

Herzlos

Assuming, of course, we save £10B in annual EU payments.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

How?



What with? We don't produce any raw materials anymore (beyond some chalk/coal/tin/wood), and most of the raw materials we need for tech are only really available from China.

In order to actually make anything, we more or less have to import it from somewhere else. So whilst the devaluation of the GBP makes us cheaper as producers, we've still got to pay more to get the stuff in, so there's less profit in it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/16/let-the-pound-fall-and-the-economy-rise

There have been suggestions from some in the remain camp that the hollowing out of manufacturing will make it impossible to gain any benefit from the cheaper pound. This, frankly, is nonsense. The current account deficit will shrink as a result of stronger exports from the manufacturing and service sectors, the boost provided to the tourism industry, and because cheaper domestic goods and services will be substituted for more expensive imports. To say that dearer imports will make life more difficult for consumers is to miss the point. That’s how rebalancing works.


At some point, referendum or no referendum, the financial markets were going to say enough is enough and it is delusional to think otherwise.

Had the result in the referendum gone the other way, the deficit would have got bigger.

Running permanent balance of payment deficits amounts to borrowing growth from the future. Sooner or later, it has to be paid back and Brexit means it will be sooner.

A weaker pound works by making exports cheaper and imports dearer. The effect, as after all the other devaluations and depreciations of the past 100 years – 1931, 1949, 1967, 1976, 1992 and 2007 – will make the economy less dependent on consumers and more reliant on producers. Lord Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England, thinks the latest fall in sterling is a good thing and he is right.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

I never understood this Tiger economy thing, it's referring to a period of rapid economic growth (which ain't going to happen) and increase of standard of living (ditto), from the emerging economies of the far east (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore), where pretty much everything is manufactured now.

Literally none of that applies to the UK, which had it's growth period nearly 100 years ago.

I'm assuming it's just another empty term to pretend that we're going to be great.

Please, please remember all these things you are saying - don't suffer false memory later and say 'oh it was always going to turn out better than many imagined'


Sorry but you 'extrapolating from a current scene', is the very worst kind of paint by numbers reasoning, the very same that informed us cheap flights would end if we are not managed by Brussells, it's all just so daft and clunky headed

Conrad

cells wrote: »

we will become the tiger on the EUs doorstep

The Tiger has been thrown the red meat of Brexit, whilst the timid bureaucrats in Brussels nibble one another's nipples.