Should this forum be renamed?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Really2 wrote: »

IMHO we had the crash, we are now in to the real term adjustments much like the 80's.

I am not quite sure if its all finished with. World Stage & all that.

China getting tough now.

Really2

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

I am not quite sure if its all finished with. World Stage & all that.

China getting tough now.

I don't think we are through it all at all, I will PM you something you may be interested in, it's good.

But I still believe we have an underlying demand and a shortage of housing (fairly shown in 2009).
If lending does not free up (which it clearly is freezing up again with deposits shooting back up etc, banks shutting up shop to see what happens in europe etc)
I really think a 2nd round of QE will come in soon and similar but smaller 2009 increase in late 2011/early 2012 tailing off to noiminal stagnation again.

IveSeenTheLight

Yes

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Like I said.

See you in a decade.

That shows me you do not understand it.

ok................
Will I be waiting that decade for you to consider the points I made?

Give me a shout if you want to debate seriously

IveSeenTheLight

Yes

Percy1983 wrote: »

The bit what gets me is the more prices drop the longer the stagnation period seems to get, I can't disagree that the year would point to stagnation in total (local is -0.2%) but that is due to 4 months of falls.

So now if things continue to fall it will be stagnation be over 18 months, if prices go back to 95 levels it will be 15 years stagnation.

It seems every rise is celebrated while every fall is 'only' stagnation. The reality is in the last year prices have risen and started to fall and do seem to be on a downward trend.

I recall however at the start of the year when they were rising, many said they predicted falls in the second half resulting in a stagnant year.

That for me is why it is stagnant.

Clearly if falls continue back to 95 prices (which they wont) then that would be a significant crash

I guess you wish clarity of what stagnant is.

In my personal opinion, you will always get up and down months and therefore if the YOY is +/- 5% then that's pretty stagnant.

If you were to see succesive years of -5% or + 5% then you could say it's a slowly falling / rising market.

paul1964_2

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry a bit of irony there, I dont think the debate is stifled try calling 25% -30% falls in 2008 on here and see the responses.

.....

IMHO we had the crash, we are now in to the real term adjustments much like the 90's, can I back it up, yes look at the 90's nominal prices and nationwide real prices for the period.
It is not going to happen because I say it but that is where I believe we are.

I can't see the irony and have no idea whether you are right about the forun in 2008 - I wasn't here then. All I can see is the state of the forum in 2010.

I happen to agree with you that the most likely outcome for house prices over the next 12 months is for them to be within a few pecent of their current value. Where I differ from the group consensus is that I can see a distinct possibility of a sharp decline in house prices along with a smaller possibility of a sharp rise in prices.

A decline could be triggered by interest rates rising, withdrawal of government/BoE support or by an unforseen event damaging our fragile economy. A rise could be triggered by general inflation caused by future government/BoE intervention. In my opinion, the balance of risk is to the downside.

There are too many prolific posters on this forum who have absolute faith that they know the future path of house prices and that only an idiot could hold a different view.

Really2

paul1964 wrote: »

There are too many prolific posters on this forum who have absolute faith that they know the future path of house prices and that only an idiot could hold a different view.

I agree there are, but both sides suffer the same idiots.

PS the irony was you pointed out it was only the people who thought prices would rise/ stay stagnant that would not move on their stance on here.
Having debated on here for the last 2 years+ I can 100% say that is simply not the case. The prolific / stuck in view posters are fairly equal in number and sockpuppets.

Percy1983

No

As I would agree that the YOY result does show stagnation, but right now the trend is downwards which should so that YOY figures start showing a decline too.

As I said locally the YOY is already -0.2% to which every month it declines now will increase that to a further negative.

I will say I mostly debate the social and moral issues of high house prices rather than trying to predict the future.

Really2

Percy1983 wrote: »

As I said locally the YOY is already -0.2% to which every month it declines now will increase that to a further negative.

But thats the thing with the forum my area is up nearly 5% YOY with nearly a 1% increase last month.

Average UK price creates a fuzzy picture
Local price creates a fuzzy board.

paul1964_2

Really2 wrote: »

I agree there are, but both sides suffer the same idiots.

PS the irony was you pointed out it was only the people who thought prices would rise/ stay stagnant that would not move on their stance on here.

Still can't see any irony.

I don't really object to people having a stance and sticking to it. It's those with a 100% faith in their predictions and a determination to belittle any dissenting voice that stifle debate on here.

Percy1983

No

Really2 wrote: »

Average UK price creates a fuzzy picture
Local price creates a fuzzy board.

Hit the nail on the head.

The one thing which does bother me is the celebrating of rising prices, great for personal greed, not to good for the younger generations.