Should this forum be renamed?

IveSeenTheLight

Yes

Sublime wrote: »

Couldn't care less. What difference does a word make? All the same tosh.

Exactly, hardly any "debate" and all the same tosh

StevieJ

tyllwyd wrote: »

I agree. I post now and again on this board, but not often because I don't enjoy being personally attacked, even online, so I try not to draw too much attention to myself here. And when I have posted, I've found that my points have been ignored in favour of pages of yet more in-jokes and in-fighting.

What a rubbish post, 2nd one for my ignore button :eek:

1984ReturnsForReal_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The Land Registry report for October.
I see nothing of shocking in there, especially related to my VI rental market I'm trying to get you to respond to on the other thread.

LR is down 0.8% for the month and is showing an annual change of +3.4%.

If I was to do a search and show that at the start of the year I predicted a stagnant year with some months up and some months down, would this put your bickering to an end?

I'm not going to get my knickers in a twist like some on monthly data that had previosuly been predicted

Like I said.

See you in a decade.

That shows me you do not understand it.

Really2

lemonjelly wrote: »

..............................................

What was that, I can't see it.

Percy1983

No

The bit what gets me is the more prices drop the longer the stagnation period seems to get, I can't disagree that the year would point to stagnation in total (local is -0.2%) but that is due to 4 months of falls.

So now if things continue to fall it will be stagnation be over 18 months, if prices go back to 95 levels it will be 15 years stagnation.

It seems every rise is celebrated while every fall is 'only' stagnation. The reality is in the last year prices have risen and started to fall and do seem to be on a downward trend.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Percy1983 wrote: »

It seems every rise is celebrated while every fall is 'only' stagnation. The reality is in the last year prices have risen and started to fall and do seem to be on a downward trend.

You have to look at the area, volume & house types to see if houses have actually gone up or down.

Its regional & down to house type but the national figure produced is supported only by people buying more expensive houses because of the drop in value.

In short people are calling a rise because a £300k house last year has been bought for £270k this year but as there are very few low value house sales the average remains high.

Its all there in the figures.

paul1964_2

This thread is a decent example of what is wrong with this forum.

There are a number of prolific posters who have come to the collective decision that there is absolutely zero possibility of a sizable downward movement in house prices. This group of posters has (through months/years of exposure to this environment of confirmation bias) decided that their point of view is the only one of any merit.

As can be seen from a number of the posts on this thread, they consider their views to be obvious truths with no need for debate or analysis. Any views dissenting from the groupthink are immediately condemned by those who appear to see themselves as some kind of custodians of this truth. If there is no dissent for a while, a member simply starts up a rather random thread so they can congratulate each other on their virtuousness.

This phenomenon can also be seen (to a lesser extent) on the group's nemesis website Housepricecrash.co.uk, where the debate is somewhat stifled by those who insist that there is absolute certainty of an impending price crash. To be fair, I do feel HPC has some interesting analysis on the economy, even if I disagree with much of it.

Back to the original question, perhaps it should be renamed “Church of the everlasting upward trend”?

Really2

Percy1983 wrote: »

The bit what gets me is the more prices drop the longer the stagnation period seems to get, I can't disagree that the year would point to stagnation in total (local is -0.2%) but that is due to 4 months of falls.

So now if things continue to fall it will be stagnation be over 18 months, if prices go back to 95 levels it will be 15 years stagnation.

It seems every rise is celebrated while every fall is 'only' stagnation. The reality is in the last year prices have risen and started to fall and do seem to be on a downward trend.

What are you on about prices fell 2008, went up 2009, fairly stagnant 2010 who will disagree with that?
I think possible -5% to -7% next year.

Your problem is you want to make out it is others hiding what is happening, I don't need to there is data released every month.

Were you calling it a boom at the start of the year? I wasn't

Stagnation will see periods of rising and falling months, it is the 12 months that paints the picture of the year.

I said last year I see prices to remain fairly flat nominally for the next 3-5 years (2-4 years now obviously)

purch

No

Maybe they should rename, and move the forum around in the list every couple of hours.

That'll keep it quiet.

Really2

paul1964 wrote: »

This thread is a decent example of what is wrong with this forum.

There are a number of prolific posters who have come to the collective decision that there is absolutely zero possibility of a sizable downward movement in house prices. This group of posters has (through months/years of exposure to this environment of confirmation bias) decided that their point of view is the only one of any merit.

Sorry a bit of irony there, I dont think the debate is stifled try calling 25% -30% falls in 2008 on here and see the responses.
I have had reasoned debates with Dopester, 1984 etc (70% club) I don't think anyone is rolled over by numbers of opposite views (like in 2008)
But the idea of debate is back it up with data, why should I agree with someone who thinks I should believe their will be a crash (further crash).

IMHO we had the crash, we are now in to the real term adjustments much like the 90's, can I back it up, yes look at the 90's nominal prices and nationwide real prices for the period.
It is not going to happen because I say it but that is where I believe we are.